Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[RNGR]

cant tell if this is from the 00z or 12z CMC, but all rain on the coast.

[Stormcenter]

So how far inland does wintry type precip begin along the Gulf coast?

cant tell if this is from the 00z or 12z CMC, but all rain on the coast.

[RNGR]

hard to say. maybe 35 miles

[Ivanhater]

Portions of NW Florida showing upwards of 3 to 4 inches of snow

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=MOB

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overla ... TIONID=MOB

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks for posting Ivan...amazing. 2" swath just barely to my N.

[Brent]

I'm still skeptical of accumulating snow on the immediate coast but it can't ruled out. It's gonna be awfully close, could easily be all rain or snow on the ground.

[Brent]

Wow

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1055 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>055-059>066-072>074-110100-
/O.CON.KJAN.WS.A.0002.100212T0600Z-100212T2000Z/
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...
NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...
WEST FERRIDAY...PORT GIBSON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...
WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...
MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...
BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...
WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
1055 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY EVENING. SOME SLEET OR RAIN COULD MIX WITH THE SNOW
AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.
THE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
WILL BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE MORE THAN HALF OF A FOOT OF SNOW. THESE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
THE HEAVY...WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. EVERYONE IN THE WATCH AREA
SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PREPARE FOR MAJOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

[RNGR]

Anyone know what the 12z Euro looks like?

[Ivanhater]

Have not seen it yet, should be soon..while we are waiting here is a nice video from JB. shows a snowfall map showing snow all the way to the coast by Saturday morning.

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... 0Continues

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like at least a dusting at the immediate coast and there certainly could be upwards of 2" in places especially P'Cola westward along the MS and AL coasts.

There is a dry slot between 900mb- 850mb and this is expected to cause evaporative cooling dropping temps all down through the column below freezing.

Looks like the real deal this time!!

[Dk2Dead.Rising]

I can't believe the Mobile office actually thinks snow is going to fall all the way to the coast, I'll believe that when I see it. But I'm definitely looking forward to some wintry mix.

[Brent]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
211 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-111230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
211 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 5 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THE EVENT HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ALICEVILLE TO CALERA TO ROANOKE MAY RECEIVE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. AREAS
NORTH OF THIS LINE MAY RECEIVE A DUSTING TO ONE INCH. CHECK BACK
FREQUENTLY FOR THE LATEST ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER
EPISODE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY ON MONDAY. A
FEW WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY APPROACH 30 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

75

[Agua]

I can't believe the Mobile office actually thinks snow is going to fall all the way to the coast, I'll believe that when I see it.

Ditto. It may snow and even accumulate to a dusting, though I'd be surprised at that, but I am skeptical in the extreme that there would be any accumulation upwards of an inch.

[Ivanhater]

18z NAM still showing a hell of a snow storm for the Gulfcoast

[Dk2Dead.Rising]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
238 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM MID MORNING FRIDAY AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...

DUE TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH COLD AIR POURING INTO OUR REGION
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW
FROM MID MORNING FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE DOING SO PROGRESSIVELY
FURTHER SOUTHWARD DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. SOME SLEET MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE WET
SNOW AND RAIN...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.

ALTHOUGH COASTAL RESIDENTS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY SEE WET SNOW FALLING FROM THE SKY ON FRIDAY...
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES.

GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ESPECIALLY THE TWO ALABAMA COASTAL
COUNTIES MAY RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE OR A LITTLE LESS. THESE AREAS ARE
NOT OFF THE HOOK JUST YET AND FURTHER MONITORING WILL BE REQUIRED.

SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AND WILL
MAKE FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

EVERYONE IS URGED TO STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS
CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WINTER STORM.

[timNms]

Very interesting!!

[TideJoe]

Very interesting!!

Looks great for us Tim.

[timNms]

Very interesting!!

Looks great for us Tim.

Yeah it does! I'm in the 4-6 inches area just north of Hattiesburg.

[Agua]

I was headed to Mendenhall Friday night, but looks now like I'll get snowed in down here with nothing but rain.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
309 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...

ALZ030>050-110515-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0001.100212T0600Z-100213T0000Z/
SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-
MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-
LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...
MOUNDVILLE...MARION...CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...
ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...
DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...
HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...
UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
309 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS NEAR LIVINGSTON AND DEMOPOLIS. THE SNOW WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

PERSONS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS AND PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER
EPISODE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.

$$