Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[iorange55]

That sounds about right... IMHO... The dew points NW of Ft Worth are in the 20's now...

There should be some snow flakes into at least Ft Worth.. How many ??

24 and a half.

No, seriously. If I had to take a guess right now, I'd say Dallas and Tarrant counties will see a few flakes. Maybe a dusting might collect in some places, if they are lucky. Further to the west, I would say an inch to two inches, depending on how much precip they get.

But, that is my forecast based on just what the models are saying. If they are wrong...then it all changes.


Remember the blind monkey thing. Always listen to what the NWS is saying before listening to me.

[Portastorm]

Great, educational presentation wxman57 ... as usual. We thank you, although I'm a little confused by your premise. I'm not sure anyone here was suggesting AUS and DFW were in the same predicament.

[Ntxw]

Great, educational presentation wxman57 ... as usual. We thank you, although I'm a little confused by your premise. I'm not sure anyone here was suggesting AUS and DFW were in the same predicament.

He read your curious (wishful) mind that there is no way AUS would escape unscathed with his telepathic powers. Got your hopes up by mentioning both DFW and AUS in the same context then squashed it like a summer bug on a hot day!

[Brandon8181]

I think someone posted something about Autin in the same boat as DFW...

[Portastorm]

Great, educational presentation wxman57 ... as usual. We thank you, although I'm a little confused by your premise. I'm not sure anyone here was suggesting AUS and DFW were in the same predicament.

He read your curious (wishful) mind that there is no way AUS would escape unscathed with his telepathic powers. Got your hopes up by mentioning both DFW and AUS in the same context then squashed it like a summer bug on a hot day!

Well, wxman57 is a very talented individual and such a skill set wouldn't surprise me!

Nevertheless, as I stated yesterday, I have been and continue to expect nothing more than cold rain. Hey, it'll feel enough like Christmas as it is. I'm just fine and dandy with that. The Portastorm Weather Center can spend its time on more fruitful pursuits for the holidays.

Edit update: Nevermind ... I see what he was referring to now ... [b]Longhornmanic8's post from 12:25 am this morning.[/b]

[hriverajr]

and then the weather gets boring..lol

[Portastorm]

and then the weather gets boring..lol

I think it will after this weekend. That zonal flow next week however will make for ideal cycling conditions for you and your SE Texas colleague. The online chatter suggests a pattern change in mid to late January. Until then ... zzzz.

[hriverajr]

yep as long as it does not get windy.. all my routes are north----south

[Ntxw]

I think it will after this weekend. That zonal flow next week however will make for ideal cycling conditions for you and your SE Texas colleague. The online chatter suggests a pattern change in mid to late January. Until then ... zzzz.

That fits well with the PNA configuration by the ensembles. Jan 5th-10th as +PNA falls



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[Longhornmaniac8]

wxman,

Thanks for that presentation, it does really help to clear things up. Looks like we will be mostly SOL here in Austin, unfortunately. Perhaps the Dallas guys will have better luck.

The only thing I'm clinging onto is that with these types of storms, the surface temperature almost never gets to the predicted high temp, so I'm hoping that it will stay a few degrees colder here than the forecast. The flip side of that is because of the cloud cover, we probably won't see a huge drop in temperatures overnight, but we'll see. A few degrees here or there can make a huge difference, as your graphics suggest. It looks like it's only 2-3 degrees (C) that's making a difference, so anything can happen, I suppose.

Forecasted high temp in Austin today was 49. I'll be surprised if it gets there. If it doesn't, maybe that will extend up into the air column as well!

[Texas Snowman]

He read your curious (wishful) mind that there is no way AUS would escape unscathed with his telepathic powers. Got your hopes up by mentioning both DFW and AUS in the same context then squashed it like a summer bug on a hot day!

The real question is did he have the smile of the Grinch on his face as he dashed the hopes of Whoville?

Or was it more like Ebenezer Scrooge's smiling scowl as he oiled up his bicycle chain and got out the SPF 35?

[iorange55]

Dallas/ Fort Worth NWS

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY LATE
TOMORROW AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM IN
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATING SNOW...RIGHT NOW
THE BEST POSSIBILITY EXISTS WEST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
METROPLEX WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. AT THIS TIME IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE OVERALL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO OUR WEST SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPMENTS UPSTREAM AS
THE FEATURE APPROACHES TOMORROW AND SUNDAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE
CHANGES.

Let's hope there are some "possible" changes :]

I will say that if a storm was ever going to surprise someone, it'd probably be a storm like this.

[iorange55]

Geez, anybody seeing the 12z Canadian? It is all kinds of weird.

[wxman57]

I think someone posted something about Autin in the same boat as DFW...

You are correct, someone mentioned that. Just looked at the 12Z GFS and as far as Dallas is concerned, it's a degree or two cooler in the lower 5000 ft than the 06Z run. Not far above freezing at all as the precip is ending. That increases the chance those of you in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area might see some snowflakes before the precip ends tomorrow night.

No such luck for Austin, I'm afraid. 12Z GFS has almost the entire precipitation column in well above-freezing air. Just a cold rain.

[wxman57]

Geez, anybody seeing the 12z Canadian? It is all kinds of weird.

That's a good assessment. Quite unique. Holds the upper low back to the west while steadily warming the air across Texas. Widespread heavy rain as the upper low moves across on Monday.

[Ntxw]

Geez, anybody seeing the 12z Canadian? It is all kinds of weird.

It's the slowest model but the warmest too I think. It waits to slug the entire rain shield along with the upper low as warm moist air is coming up from the gulf. I don't think it will work that way there will probably be something held back in Mexico. But who knows! I do like canadian bacon!

[aggiecutter]

and then the weather gets boring..lol

The online chatter suggests a pattern change in mid to late January. Until then ... zzzz.

Until then, you enjoy the weather, its the only weather you've got.

As far as the weather is concerned, the other shoe is going to drop in the aforementioned time. -AO, what goes up must come down. Its +AO life is living on borrowed time.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Euro pretty much is unchanged. It's been pretty stout for days lol. NAM did a good job trying to wrap this thing up at the end which every model is now trying to do also.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Are the short range models picking up on the light precip in west Texas?

[iorange55]

18z NAM looks to be coming in slightly colder so far through 24hrs....or about the same, lol.

It does have a bit more moisture spreading further north and west than the last run.