Texas Winter 2012-2013

[iorange55]

Looks like the latest run of the CMC is showing some snow for North Texas.

[Yukon Cornelius]

What parts of N TX are looking at decent snow chances?

[Ntxw]

Finally, and I say this with great enthusiasm, all guidance points to the PNA rising after said storm. At least to neutral if not positive adding to the growing hints of a bitter cold air mass lurking. The PNA clearly has been the lock to the dam to the reservoir of cold waiting to be unleashed, and for once we may be able to break it.

[HockeyTx82]

With all the cold air "bottled up" the polar ice cap seems to have rebounded from the lowest point ever recorded this past summer. Not sure of depth, but over all size is back to what is what last winter if not more. Perhaps that was Mother Nature's way of equaling all things out?

Then again what do I know........

Thoughts?

[Ntxw]

With all the cold air "bottled up" the polar ice cap seems to have rebounded from the lowest point ever recorded this past summer. Not sure of depth, but over all size is back to what is what last winter if not more. Perhaps that was Mother Nature's way of equaling all things out?

Then again what do I know........

Thoughts?

The north pole is not that important for us in winter. Most of our cold air is from the mid latitudes of Canada and Alaska below the arctic circle. When we say 'arctic outbreak' it's not actually truly just from the arctic, it's the Siberian express where cold air is from Russia crossing over the pole to NA. Weird thing is, if we want it to be colder in the latitudes where we live, we need the arctic to be warm (block).

[HockeyTx82]

With all the cold air "bottled up" the polar ice cap seems to have rebounded from the lowest point ever recorded this past summer. Not sure of depth, but over all size is back to what is what last winter if not more. Perhaps that was Mother Nature's way of equaling all things out?

Then again what do I know........

Thoughts?

The north pole is not that important for us in winter. Most of our cold air is from the mid latitudes of Canada and Alaska below the arctic circle. When we say 'arctic outbreak' it's not actually truly just from the arctic, it's the Siberian express where cold air is from Russia crossing over the pole to NA. Weird thing is, if we want it to be colder in the latitudes where we live, we need the arctic to be warm (block).

I was just referring to the fact that I read on the NOAA site http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/sea_ice.html that this past September the polar ice cap hit a minimum during the summer in terms of mass. I have more then learned from this site that our cold does not come from there, just pointing out that after a September low all that cold seems to have helped it rebound nicely. Just found it interesting that last winter was a bust and the snow shield did not make it to far south on this side of the world. Just making an observation. If someone can link to the NOAA snow and ice map you can look at last winter and this winter so far. The yellow area looks larger then last winter from my untrained eye. I am on my Windows RT tablet, don't have my book marks with me. Please someone correct me if I am wrong seeing as I don't want to mislead people.

I am sure Santa is enjoying it

Thanks for the response, sorry for the confusion.

[Ntxw]

^ Ah ok I gotcha, it does look better!

12z euro is a bit further south with the snowfall than it's 0z run! Focuses on the area between the Red River and I-20. I'm not sure how much falls, but the backlash extends roughly from Wichita Falls/Abilene to Tyler/Texarkana box. Then onwards to Mississippi, all behind 540 thickness Christmas evening. Not all that different from the CMC

[Longhornmaniac8]

Keep on digging south!!!!! You models still have about 200 miles to go!!!

[Portastorm]

Keep on digging south!!!!! You models still have about 200 miles to go!!!

My fellow Austinite, don't get your hopes up. I don't think we're going to see any frozen precip out of the Christmas Day/Boxing Day storm. To date I have not seen one model run suggesting it. However, I'm more optimistic about the ones which come after that.

[Comanche]

Keep on digging south!!!!! You models still have about 200 miles to go!!!

My fellow Austinite, don't get your hopes up. I don't think we're going to see any frozen precip out of the Christmas Day/Boxing Day storm. To date I have not seen one model run suggesting it. However, I'm more optimistic about the ones which come after that.

Bing Crosby didn't sing he was dreaming of a white pre-new years though dammit!

[iorange55]

^ Ah ok I gotcha, it does look better!

12z euro is a bit further south with the snowfall than it's 0z run! Focuses on the area between the Red River and I-20. I'm not sure how much falls, but the backlash extends roughly from Wichita Falls/Abilene to Tyler/Texarkana box. Then onwards to Mississippi, all behind 540 thickness Christmas evening. Not all that different from the CMC

Right now it's looking like some light snow around Christmas evening, which is all you can really ask for! Hopefully we will be talking about accumulations, but it's just too early. We've been known to get a few surprises around these parts

[Ntxw]

I think those mets at PWC got a little liberal

[iorange55]

Lol ^ Ntxw.

I just saw someone mention that model on another forum, and was going to look at what it was showing. Thanks for saving me the trouble!

[HockeyTx82]

Lol ^ Ntxw.

I just saw someone mention that model on another forum, and was going to look at what it was showing. Thanks for saving me the trouble!

So is that showing the low even further south?

[Ntxw]

Right now it's looking like some light snow around Christmas evening, which is all you can really ask for! Hopefully we will be talking about accumulations, but it's just too early. We've been known to get a few surprises around these parts

And it appears it will likely be a cold Christmas, at least for north Texas (sorry southern guys maybe the front will blast through in the afternoon there!). I hate a warm Christmas...

[Portastorm]

DGEX ... ppfffttt!

C'mon man, the mets at the PWC are going to need more than that to raise their glasses of Grey Goose. Next thing I know, you'll pull out some HRRR runs!

More seriously, I like seeing some of our "lurkers" posting in the thread. We welcome you and encourage you to post often and share your thoughts/insights/questions, whatever. As Ntxw has said so well, there will be plenty to talk about in the days and weeks ahead thanks to Mr. PNA turning positive.

[bevolon]

Long time "lurker" first time poster! thanks for all the insight on the weather. Just a winter weather lover, not much into reading the maps, but love all the great information all the posters put out there for us to lurk on!!

[HockeyTx82]

If only.......

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=1929snow

[Portastorm]

Long time "lurker" first time poster! thanks for all the insight on the weather. Just a winter weather lover, not much into reading the maps, but love all the great information all the posters put out there for us to lurk on!!

Welcome bevolon! Glad to see you on the forum.

Thanks for coming out of "lurk" mode.

[weatherdude1108]

Keep on digging south!!!!! You models still have about 200 miles to go!!!

My fellow Austinite, don't get your hopes up. I don't think we're going to see any frozen precip out of the Christmas Day/Boxing Day storm. To date I have not seen one model run suggesting it. However, I'm more optimistic about the ones which come after that.

Don't we Austinites (and others in the area of ewx) usually get our Winter fun in January/February historically anyway? We've had several "inclement weather" days at work over the years. One was around MLK Day a few years ago. The other was in February I think a couple years back during the 2010 Snowpocalypse. Not sure of the dates, but sure they happened. Drivers had their own little "slip & slides" trying to get home.

But, I sure do wish of having a white Christmas someday in these parts of Texas.