Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ntxwx]

Looking over this mornings 500 MB charts for next week, all I can say is this will be a LONG week next week for our fellow forecasters....the southwest upper level flow over the Arctic air will cause fits for these models for several days. The dominant flow is straight out of the Arctic circle(reinforcing arctic air already in place across the southern plains) so I wouldn't bet against the cold that's for sure

So the models are having trouble keeping the cold because of the SW upper level flow right? And if so, does that spell ice storm? Thanks.

[Texas Snowman]

Merry Christmas everyone!

Have a blessed day and enjoy any and all time spent with your family and friends!

[lrak]

Merry Christmas to all! I hope we see some white stuff down here, and thank you to all who gives me insight to the weather and explaining how things are happening up stairs.

[Ntxw]

Looking over this mornings 500 MB charts for next week, all I can say is this will be a LONG week next week for our fellow forecasters....the southwest upper level flow over the Arctic air will cause fits for these models for several days. The dominant flow is straight out of the Arctic circle(reinforcing arctic air already in place across the southern plains) so I wouldn't bet against the cold that's for sure

So the models are having trouble keeping the cold because of the SW upper level flow right? And if so, does that spell ice storm? Thanks.

Wxman57 has posted this before but when you have a trof/storm in the southwest models tend to think it pumps ridging ahead of it and creates a block holding up the very cold air to the north of the boundary and warm to the south. But what they often mistake is low level cold bullies it's way south regardless in spite of with such strong HP and and dense air damming up against the Rockies. They will get colder, much colder a 1030+HP in the state of Texas usually results in subfreezing days for DFW in the past.

The EPO forecasts of late go anywhere from -3 to -5SD. Don't disregard that index, it rarely fails.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

But of course it doesn't get near the gulf coast like models were starting to come into agreement on a couple days ago. We are going to have trees start blooming and grass tunring green around here before too long with all this warm and rain we are going to be getting.

And to guote myself I did say this the other day and looks to be turning out just like I thought, and not in a good way

Well like clock work the gfs shows no winter precip for the gulf coast now. Of course that would be after the cmc and euro came onboard showing it. Guess tomorrow it will show warmth and heavy tropical rains for the south

[Ntxwx]

Looking over this mornings 500 MB charts for next week, all I can say is this will be a LONG week next week for our fellow forecasters....the southwest upper level flow over the Arctic air will cause fits for these models for several days. The dominant flow is straight out of the Arctic circle(reinforcing arctic air already in place across the southern plains) so I wouldn't bet against the cold that's for sure

So the models are having trouble keeping the cold because of the SW upper level flow right? And if so, does that spell ice storm? Thanks.

Wxman57 has posted this before but when you have a trof/storm in the southwest models tend to think it pumps ridging ahead of it and creates a block holding up the very cold air to the north of the boundary and warm to the south. But what they often mistake is low level cold bullies it's way south regardless in spite of with such strong HP and and dense air damming up against the Rockies. They will get colder, much colder a 1030+HP in the state of Texas usually results in subfreezing days for DFW in the past.

Thank you Ntxw, but with the SW flow aloft does that mean it would be an ice storm?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im guessing we wont see precip potential with the correct temps, or an idea of whats correct until 4 days out. Models really having trouble. 1058 HP and 850 line barely makes it past the red river valley lol

[ronyan]

But of course it doesn't get near the gulf coast like models were starting to come into agreement on a couple days ago. We are going to have trees start blooming and grass tunring green around here before too long with all this warm and rain we are going to be getting.

And to guote myself I did say this the other day and looks to be turning out just like I thought, and not in a good way

Well like clock work the gfs shows no winter precip for the gulf coast now. Of course that would be after the cmc and euro came onboard showing it. Guess tomorrow it will show warmth and heavy tropical rains for the south

Relax. You're forgetting that the models often lose the cold periodically in this time frame. There has been little variation in the projected 500mb pattern, Arctic air is coming to TX.

[Ntxw]

Thank you Ntxw, but with the SW flow aloft does that mean it would be an ice storm?

The risk would be greater yes, especially if the actual trof doesn't kick through faster and overrunning occurs as pieces come out.

[TheProfessor]

If this were to occur could this rival last years Ice storm? The set ups seem awfully similar.

[TheProfessor]

The 12z PGFS shows something I've never really seen before here, It shows North Texas getting a Snow Storm first then getting an ice storm on top of it, usually it is the reverse.

[Ntxw]

It's too difficult to say at this time. Once we get into the NAM's range i think we'll get a better feel. It's usually superior with low level cold air.

FW seems to be biting. Already putting frozen precip late in their forecast, for this WFO that's very unusual must be somewhat confident.

EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL SURGE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A 1058MB HIGH SINKS SOUTH. ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY. WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WHILE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE IS A
FAVORABLE SET UP FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ISSUES ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT ARE
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW POPS/QPFS.

[srainhoutx]

1050mb+ Arctic High dropping S from Canada via the Euro on day 4. Looking into the first 10 days of January I see nothing that suggests a warm pattern for our Region.

[Ntxw]

1050mb+ Arctic High dropping S from Canada via the Euro on day 4. Looking into the first 10 days of January I see nothing that suggests a warm pattern for our Region.

1059mb in Canada and 1050 in Kansas moving to the Panhandles. That is mighty impressive... 1989 had 1056 ish in the central plains.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So why are all the models now showing the cold air running into a brick wall and not making it any further south than north Texas then shooting east?

[Portastorm]

But of course it doesn't get near the gulf coast like models were starting to come into agreement on a couple days ago. We are going to have trees start blooming and grass tunring green around here before too long with all this warm and rain we are going to be getting.

And to guote myself I did say this the other day and looks to be turning out just like I thought, and not in a good way

Well like clock work the gfs shows no winter precip for the gulf coast now. Of course that would be after the cmc and euro came onboard showing it. Guess tomorrow it will show warmth and heavy tropical rains for the south

CYCLONE MIKE, you're going to drive yourself crazy living and dying with every model run and the surface depictions. Remember what our venerable wxman57 has taught us ... until you're about three days away from an "event," you need to pay the most attention to the upper pattern being predicted ("progged") by the models. See this image below from today's 12z GFS? It shows a flow straight from the North Pole down into Texas and Louisiana. Follow the millibar contour lines on the map. This has been a consistent look from the GFS and Euro for the last few days. The cold is coming ... doubt it at your own risk.

[Portastorm]

So why are all the models now showing the cold air running into a brick wall and not making it any further south than north Texas then shooting east?

This is a common fault of the GFS and it does it every winter. See Ntxw's note above about why the model does this. Arctic or Polar air always, always, always comes down the leeside of the Rockies into the Southern Plains if the high cell comes into Montana. The only thing that would change that is a screaming Pacific jet stream which we don't have right now.

[TheProfessor]

Yes, and like other people said the models tend to lose the cold in this timeframe, the same happened with the ice storm last year.

[perk]

So why are all the models now showing the cold air running into a brick wall and not making it any further south than north Texas then shooting east?

This is a common fault of the GFS and it does it every winter. See Ntxw's note above about why the model does this. Arctic or Polar air always, always, always comes down the leeside of the Rockies into the Southern Plains if the high cell comes into Montana. The only thing that would change that is a screaming Pacific jet stream which we don't have right now.

Portastorm nice try,but until CYCLONE MIKE has snow and ice covering his yard and home he's gonna continue to talk down the upcoming weather event.

[srainhoutx]

Lots of opportunities for wintry mischief via the GEFS. The ensembles seem to be locking into a pattern that offers re enforcing cold shots dropping S from the Canadian Prairies with both shortwave dropping S into the Inter Mountain West and the Plains with embedded disturbances riding along the sub tropical jet.