Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

Support is growing in the 00z GEFS for some wintry mischief potential in the state, as well, very noisy run

[Cpv17]

The silence at this last GFS run is deafening. I’ve seen enough. Goodnight folks. Maybe it’s clueless, I don’t know.

The operational models are going to flip flop around at this range as we've mentioned on here before regarding arctic air, but if you stick to the ensembles, they will show you what the operational will go to in time.  

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_c_anom/1704499200/1705168800-rhTwX1VDqpk.png

That’s one hell of a strong signal for brutally cold air for an ensemble. Now we just need to work on getting some wintry weather mixed in.

[txtwister78]

Support is growing in the 00z GEFS for some wintry mischief potential in the state, as well, very noisy run

As the ensembles trend colder further south any system/impulse that rides along the boundary will also move further south. That's why we're still several days off from being able to talk precip types and more importantly location.

[txtwister78]

Good morning.... lol. Talk about an adjustment from the 12z run.

[Cpv17]

Good morning.... lol. Talk about an adjustment from the 12z run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/t2m_c_anom/1704499200/1705190400-vGTigE8tQhE.png

Wow! Yeah, that’s crazy!

[txtwister78]

Good morning.... lol. Talk about an adjustment from the 12z run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/t2m_c_anom/1704499200/1705190400-vGTigE8tQhE.png

Wow! Yeah, that’s crazy!

Definitely, especially when you see wind chill readings below zero all the way down into South Central Texas. That run will get folks talking on social media later today within the weather community.

[Stratton23]

Euro also has a system like the GFS now

[Cpv17]

Euro also has a system like the GFS now

The Euro is still trying so hard to keep the cold air from coming into Texas lol especially the southern half.

[Stratton23]

impressive cold on the EPS, and a pretty noisy run in terms of precipitation

[Ghost0321]

Euro also has a system like the GFS now

The Euro is still trying so hard to keep the cold air from coming into Texas lol especially the southern half.

I remember back during the feb 2021 arctic blast, the euro had DFW in the 60s until 2 or 3 days out

[Brent]

Hopefully things get better after this storm Monday Tuesday because we're still getting killed here by the lack of snow pack to the north... I mean Tuesday may just be another dusting at this rate here if we're lucky instead of the few inches it appeared the other day its just not cold enough even up here so far in every event

[CaptinCrunch]

Hopefully things get better after this storm Monday Tuesday because we're still getting killed here by the lack of snow pack to the north... I mean Tuesday may just be another dusting at this rate here if we're lucky instead of the few inches it appeared the other day its just not cold enough even up here so far in every event

Current snow pack in the US
https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd1045012.html

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nh_snowcover/

[orangeblood]

Latest ICON now down to single digits DFW Saturday morning/Highs in teens, sub freezing highs Austin Houston

[Ntxw]

Latest ICON now down to single digits DFW Saturday morning/Highs in teens, sub freezing highs Austin Houston

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/scentus/t2m_f/1704542400/1705147200-xAYrjPGd850.png

Storm to go with it. Looking back now the cold into the west and then slipping away into the east all fantasy stuff. Models are coalescing into the old time saying, downhill hugging the Rockies down the plains.

[gpsnowman]

Getting 2021 vibes. Maybe not the duration but temps and increasing precip chances. ICON did very well for the Feb 2021 cold wave.

[Stratton23]

CMC 12z drops the arctic bomb, probably its coldest run yet, GFS gets oh so close to a winter storm

[bubba hotep]

Flow is just too fast with too many vorts. Can't get anything to really slow down and dig.

[orangeblood]

Flow is just too fast with too many vorts. Can't get anything to really slow down and dig.

It’s going to slow down more than the models suspect with this kind of insane North Atlantic road block, everything will back up and push towards equator more than normal. It appears this is a high anomaly event coming up

[Ntxw]

More cold air on the long range GFS. I know the tropical forcing doesn't become too favorable but look at what it's doing. There's trouble in the waters. Sticking around longer in p2.



This La Nina-like period has created the cold over North America, and as long as it stays there (hello weakened strat vortex?) El Nino blocking is favored Jan-Feb of any +ENSO winter.

[orangeblood]

More cold air on the long range GFS. I know the tropical forcing doesn't become too favorable but look at what it's doing. There's trouble in the waters. Sticking around longer in p2.

https://i.imgur.com/Bq1PNz4.gif

This La Nina-like period has created the cold over North America, and as long as it stays there (hello weakened strat vortex?) El Nino blocking is favored Jan-Feb of any +ENSO winter.

Yep, if this forcing starts to slow down watch out…this could get really interesting. Really in somewhat uncharted territory looking at analogs, there just aren’t many out there similar