Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Harp.1]

This is the craziest -EPO GEFS I've ever seen

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bh91b.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bh91b.gif

What does this mean?

[Ntxw]

Hard to avoid the elephant in the room, given it was just one of the hottest Christmas weeks ever, but this is a very warm start to January, in what is typically peak cold climo. 15+ above normal is no joke, a week's worth at least at that.

The pain sits at where from a distance it looked like up and down at least, but now a locked in 7-10 day stretch of much above normal solid up close.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw yep this next week to 10 days is going to suck , but i think the pain here will be worth it lol, ensembles still look good for mid january , even the weeklies do too, maybe a brief thaw at the end of january before the pattern reloads in February if you believe the weeklies lol

[Ntxw]

Ntxw yep this next week to 10 days is going to suck , but i think the pain here will be worth it lol, ensembles still look good for mid january , even the weeklies do too, maybe a brief thaw at the end of january before the pattern reloads in February if you believe the weeklies lol

I still do believe in the change mid month and after. Was just surprised how much of a solid warm wall the start is now, warmth has staying power.

[txtwister78]

Warm weather quite frankly has been fairly easy to predict for Texas thus far since early December. You could see it coming a mile away.

That's one thing models have handled well but then again there really hasn't been anything to second guess that.

[Brent]

Ntxw yep this next week to 10 days is going to suck , but i think the pain here will be worth it lol, ensembles still look good for mid january , even the weeklies do too, maybe a brief thaw at the end of january before the pattern reloads in February if you believe the weeklies lol

I still do believe in the change mid month and after. Was just surprised how much of a solid warm wall the start is now, warmth has staying power.

Yeah I have to admit even up here the warmth has been crazy... I mean some people I know couldn't believe we hit 86 last weekend and even this stretch coming up has trended a lot warmer than it was looking

Personally like I said I just wanna see the rainy pattern come back. It's wild to me how wet it was most of last year and then it just all fell apart much like the cooler temperatures too

Hoping the rumors are true about El Nino coming this year. I've always heard people fear a second year Nina and well here we are

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Ntxw yep this next week to 10 days is going to suck , but i think the pain here will be worth it lol, ensembles still look good for mid january , even the weeklies do too, maybe a brief thaw at the end of january before the pattern reloads in February if you believe the weeklies lol

I still do believe in the change mid month and after. Was just surprised how much of a solid warm wall the start is now, warmth has staying power.

Ntxw, if the trough stays out west, then we may not see winter return here, except brief cool spells. Not sure but we will find out sooner or later

[Stratton23]

Not necessarily, depends on how far west the trough is, some of our best winter weather events have occurred when we get a trough setting up shop out west in winter, ideally around mexico- west texas , i do expect all of texas to get cold mid month and beyond, how cold and precipitation are still questions that cant be answered yet

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntxw yep this next week to 10 days is going to suck , but i think the pain here will be worth it lol, ensembles still look good for mid january , even the weeklies do too, maybe a brief thaw at the end of january before the pattern reloads in February if you believe the weeklies lol

I still do believe in the change mid month and after. Was just surprised how much of a solid warm wall the start is now, warmth has staying power.

Yeah I have to admit even up here the warmth has been crazy... I mean some people I know couldn't believe we hit 86 last weekend and even this stretch coming up has trended a lot warmer than it was looking

Personally like I said I just wanna see the rainy pattern come back. It's wild to me how wet it was most of last year and then it just all fell apart much like the cooler temperatures too

Hoping the rumors are true about El Nino coming this year. I've always heard people fear a second year Nina and well here we are

December was 14 degrees above normal here. Second only to Dec 1933.

[Wthrfan]

Ntxw yep this next week to 10 days is going to suck , but i think the pain here will be worth it lol, ensembles still look good for mid january , even the weeklies do too, maybe a brief thaw at the end of january before the pattern reloads in February if you believe the weeklies lol

I still do believe in the change mid month and after. Was just surprised how much of a solid warm wall the start is now, warmth has staying power.

Ntxw, if the trough stays out west, then we may not see winter return here, except brief cool spells. Not sure but we will find out sooner or later

I've begun to wonder if this will be a year without a true winter, even up here. We've had a couple of days of cold days, but I've lived in Oklahoma 25 years and I don't recall a stretch of warm weather this time of year like we have had and it appears to be here for at least another 10 days. We all have been "-removed-" for 2-3 weeks now and it looks like at least another two.

[Ntxw]

I still do believe in the change mid month and after. Was just surprised how much of a solid warm wall the start is now, warmth has staying power.

Ntxw, if the trough stays out west, then we may not see winter return here, except brief cool spells. Not sure but we will find out sooner or later

I've begun to wonder if this will be a year without a true winter, even up here. We've had a couple of days of cold days, but I've lived in Oklahoma 25 years and I don't recall a stretch of warm weather this time of year like we have had and it appears to be here for at least another 10 days. We all have been "-removed-" for 2-3 weeks now and it looks like at least another two.

Yeah I like the block approach. End of December was lost, Beginning 2 weeks of January looks toast, maybe end of week 2 upstream sees the change but we still have to get rid of this pesky warm ridge that keeps rearing back, and it's had staying power despite the indexes. Stuff like that is hard to budge when it's background forcing. We need a major -EPO, like a real one soon not down the road. When it's actually here then we'll see cold a week later.

[Brent]

I still do believe in the change mid month and after. Was just surprised how much of a solid warm wall the start is now, warmth has staying power.

Ntxw, if the trough stays out west, then we may not see winter return here, except brief cool spells. Not sure but we will find out sooner or later

I've begun to wonder if this will be a year without a true winter, even up here. We've had a couple of days of cold days, but I've lived in Oklahoma 25 years and I don't recall a stretch of warm weather this time of year like we have had and it appears to be here for at least another 10 days. We all have been "-removed-" for 2-3 weeks now and it looks like at least another two.

I dunno I wasn't here but I mean the 2010s had some really really horrible winters here in Tulsa

2011-2012 is the one I've been fearing all along. It also featured really cold air in early December.

But there are others later in the decade that barely had any snow here too

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, if the trough stays out west, then we may not see winter return here, except brief cool spells. Not sure but we will find out sooner or later

I've begun to wonder if this will be a year without a true winter, even up here. We've had a couple of days of cold days, but I've lived in Oklahoma 25 years and I don't recall a stretch of warm weather this time of year like we have had and it appears to be here for at least another 10 days. We all have been "-removed-" for 2-3 weeks now and it looks like at least another two.

I dunno I mean the 2010s had some really really horrible winters here in Tulsa

2011-2012 is the one I've been fearing all along. It also featured really cold air in early December.

But there are others later in the decade that barely had any snow here

2011-2012 looks chilly compared to what we have had. It was just warm compared to years prior to back then. I remember it well and thought no way winters could get more boring than that year.

[Iceresistance]

Lol, 18z GFS has a 1066 mb HP in NW Canada

[Brent]

I've begun to wonder if this will be a year without a true winter, even up here. We've had a couple of days of cold days, but I've lived in Oklahoma 25 years and I don't recall a stretch of warm weather this time of year like we have had and it appears to be here for at least another 10 days. We all have been "-removed-" for 2-3 weeks now and it looks like at least another two.

I dunno I mean the 2010s had some really really horrible winters here in Tulsa

2011-2012 is the one I've been fearing all along. It also featured really cold air in early December.

But there are others later in the decade that barely had any snow here

2011-2012 looks chilly compared to what we have had. It was just warm compared to years prior to back then. I remember it well and thought no way winters could get more boring than that year.

16-17 is another one... Not even an inch of snow here. Awful

[Wthrfan]

I've begun to wonder if this will be a year without a true winter, even up here. We've had a couple of days of cold days, but I've lived in Oklahoma 25 years and I don't recall a stretch of warm weather this time of year like we have had and it appears to be here for at least another 10 days. We all have been "-removed-" for 2-3 weeks now and it looks like at least another two.

I dunno I mean the 2010s had some really really horrible winters here in Tulsa

2011-2012 is the one I've been fearing all along. It also featured really cold air in early December.

But there are others later in the decade that barely had any snow here

2011-2012 looks chilly compared to what we have had. It was just warm compared to years prior to back then. I remember it well and thought no way winters could get more boring than that year.

2012 was a brutal weather year. 2011 had the warmest summer in OKC history.

[Brent]

I dunno I mean the 2010s had some really really horrible winters here in Tulsa

2011-2012 is the one I've been fearing all along. It also featured really cold air in early December.

But there are others later in the decade that barely had any snow here

2011-2012 looks chilly compared to what we have had. It was just warm compared to years prior to back then. I remember it well and thought no way winters could get more boring than that year.

2012 was a brutal weather year. 2011 had the warmest summer in OKC history.

It seems fitting after we had like 45 inches of snow between December 2009 and February 2011 that the summers would be completely horrible

That's probably the snowiest stretch on record here and then yeah both summer 2011 and 2012 have record highs in the summer here which is very hard to do. There's an all time low of 88 from 2012!

But yeah there's been some really awful winters here back then... I just can't see us doing worse than those

[Harp.1]

It’s a shame how quiet this place is. Hopefully something will show up that’s not in fantasy land that we can track.

[gpsnowman]

It’s a shame how quiet this place is. Hopefully something will show up that’s not in fantasy land that we can track.

It sure is. A warm autumn season followed by, so far, a warm winter. Can't get any worse for winter lovers. I see another potential 80 degree day next week during peak climo. Another couple weeks the averages start to climb so hopefully the mid month change happens. Otherwise the white flag might be unfurled.

[Stratton23]

It is going to happen, we just have to be patient, pacific blocking and telconnections dont just shift over night lol, we just have to make it through this miserable warmth first, then come mind january, I bet this board will be lighting up with activity lol