Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

Of note in the 12Z GFS is the Upper Air Pattern. The "colder air" looks to continue right into the New Year. I do not see anything that is remotely close to a repeat of 1983 or 1989 though IMHO.

[msstateguy83]

DISCLAIMER–THIS IS A LONG RANGE FORECAST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS IS MY OWN PERSONAL FORECAST AND IS NO WAY ENDORSED BY STORM2K.ORG FOR MORE DETAILED WEATHER IN YOUR AREA PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL TV RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[southerngale]

I could be wrong, but it looks like the trend isn't our friend anymore. I've been really busy the past few days, but I'm trying to keep up in here. Am I wrong in thinking the latest trend is not quite as cold and less precip?

(talking about SE TX for the most part... I know our friends further north have a better shot)

[msstateguy83]

yeah unfortunately very true in the 'trends' temps have been raised a bit, moisture is a growing concern, also i would say as i think was stated in a previous post the shallowness of the airmass, i think would create more of a mix the further south you go as of rightnow i stand by my graphic most of the snow staying along a line *basically not exactly along interstate 44 up thru ok along and north of there* to the south,east of that line looks like it could get real ugly if the moisture is there with a frz rain,sleet event with some snow mixed in.

a note as srainhoutx clearly stated and corrected me per the latest runs there is NOTHING now to suggest a major down in the basement event with the temps nothing to the effects of 83 or 89.

also just to add, i would fully expect the way the models are handling it as of rightnow this system to be out of the region by christmas day leading to just a non precip event day BUT quite cold, i think we will have a lull if you will in the precip from christmas day possibly lasting a few days, i think the pattern is setting up however for us to get SEVERAL chances of winter storms after christmas and into the newyear.

[Nederlander]

I thought this was supposed to be a large mass of really cold arctic air with temps in the teens and twenties for much of texas. If that were the case then the only missing ingredient is moisture for at least some form of frozen precip. right?

[msstateguy83]

over the last couple days that was looking to be the case, however last few runs
of the models have bumped up temps, it *appears* subject to change the brunt of
the air will go just to our north and east of oklahoma,texas, the gfs i just looked over
has temps into n tx modifying into the 50s by 00z on the 27th.

so rightnow things to remember

1: we do have a major system that could effect our weather heading towards
the christmas holiday

2: the timing, how much of the arctic air, moisture are all a concern at this point

3: best areas for any snow appears at this time to be new mexico,colorado,kansas,
parts of the tx panhandle, northern,central ok and into parts of missouri, arkansas.

4: further south mix bag of precip is most likely to occur ie sleet,frz raining possibly
with some light snow. I DO NOT AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY SNOW TO FALL SOUTH
OF THE DALLAS-FORTWORTH METROPLEX FROM DALLAS E AND SOUTHWARD MOSTLY
A COLD RAIN..

5: as anyone that knows weather we are a life time out so keep it here and or to your
local tv,radio or the national weather service for the latest in the coming days because
this could still be a major event there is just way to many questions then answers rightnow
and we should have more by the trends in the models in the coming days..

[Ntxw]

I thought this was supposed to be a large mass of really cold arctic air with temps in the teens and twenties for much of texas. If that were the case then the only missing ingredient is moisture for at least some form of frozen precip. right?

Cold yes, I'd count on that. Details of precip, I'd wait until we get into the 5-7 days time frame. The models could easily flip one way or the other (they have been). I think sometimes we tend to look to the models too much and seem to give them the trust as if they control the weather (we all know they don't ).

[Texas Snowman]

Obviously, I dig winter weather given my moniker, but this thread is somewhat reminiscent of wobble watching during a hurricane. I'm not complaining, just saying...

My .02 cents here, but the models are what they are, instruments into which data is fed that produce guidance for forecasts. They have inherent strengths, weaknesses, and biases. They can be right, they can be wrong, or they can be somewhere in between. Meaning that if we hitch our wagon to model worshipping, we'll be dragged all over the place.

Many have mentioned the Brownsville NWS weather guys and how good they were in fortelling the 1983 and 1989 freezes. I was here in North Texas for both of those historically cold events. But we've got to remember that those were just that, historic freezes. They were once in a quarter century (or in the case of the 1983 event, a once in a lifetime event). I'll bet that most of those Brownsville NWS guys didn't follow each and every model run - they saw the cold gathering, saw the pattern that could deliver it, and knew from past experience that shallow arctic air masses when dislodged southward can almost have a mind of their own models be darned.

I guess what I'm saying is this. The models are rarely right when it comes to winter weather events in Texas. So in a winter like this - or any winter for that matter - I'm not sure how much stock I would put in anything until a couple of days out.


Even the trends.

[Nederlander]

I was going to say the same thing snowman. I follow the tropics closely, but no winter weather usually. I feel like im smack dab in the middle of hurricane season. Models give me headaches.. flip flop flip flop flip flop

[Texas Snowman]

Couple of more things.

This might be a good time to recall the wise word's of the late great Harold Taft at KXAS-TV in Fort Worth. He said one time on the air that because it was so difficult to get all of the ingredients together for snow, about the only time he forcasted flakes in Texas was when he looked out the window and saw that it was actually snowing.

If you like winter weather, then keep in mind how chilly this month has already been statewide, not to mention a historic early snowfall down south. And since it's officially not even winter just yet there's every reason to believe that this will be a winter to remember in many parts of Texas.

Finally, if memory serves correct, none of the N. Texas weather forecasts had the early December cold front being near as strong as it actually turned out to be. Not the local mets, not the NWS. Models didn't handle that cold air mass very well and I'd bet that's not the last time that happens this winter.

(And there were also temp busts this week on forecasted highs with the most recent frontal passage.)

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Obviously, I dig winter weather given my moniker, but this thread is somewhat reminiscent of wobble watching during a hurricane. I'm not complaining, just saying...

My .02 cents here, but the models are what they are, instruments into which data is fed that produce guidance for forecasts. They have inherent strengths, weaknesses, and biases. They can be right, they can be wrong, or they can be somewhere in between. Meaning that if we hitch our wagon to model worshipping, we'll be dragged all over the place.

Many have mentioned the Brownsville NWS weather guys and how good they were in fortelling the 1983 and 1989 freezes. I was here in North Texas for both of those historically cold events. But we've got to remember that those were just that, historic freezes. They were once in a quarter century (or in the case of the 1983 event, a once in a lifetime event). I'll bet that most of those Brownsville NWS guys didn't follow each and every model run - they saw the cold gathering, saw the pattern that could deliver it, and knew from past experience that shallow arctic air masses when dislodged southward can almost have a mind of their own models be darned.

I guess what I'm saying is this. The models are rarely right when it comes to winter weather events in Texas. So in a winter like this - or any winter for that matter - I'm not sure how much stock I would put in anything until a couple of days out.


Even the trends.

Yep... Those Brownsville guys were that good and now long retired, unfortuanately. I do recall when I lived down there in the 80's , those guys would be sounding alarms two weeks out in some cases for exterme events. Those were the days when you got your AFD's and weather summary's via the weather radio, delivered by a real person. I'm sure there were many times the latest model output went straight to the trash can in favor of forecasting based on historical data and other variables. This was very true in regards to cold weather events.

The only office I see at least in public that gets close to these guys these days might be NWS Norman. Why do we care what NWS Norman says? Because that barbed wire fence on the Red River ALWAYS stops arctic air in it's tracks. Now, if the same fence would keep Texas football players from going to that school in Norman, we'd relegate them has been status like Norte Dame.

[srainhoutx]

HPC thought in Final Extended Disco today...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
135 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 20 2009 - 12Z THU DEC 24 2009

A REX-BLOCK EXTENDING FROM GREENLAND TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND A LARGE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT AN
UNUSUALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE SPLIT-FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. ONE SOURCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN AND AROUND THE LOW SEGMENT OF THE
REX-BLOCK...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LIKELY ALLOWING THESE
SYSTEMS TO PERPETUATE COLD AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAY 3
SHOULD REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING WET CONDITIONS TO THAT REGION DAYS 3-5 BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH TIMING/PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE
LARGE...SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH MANY GEFS
MEMBERS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES DAYS 5/6...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE GULF
COAST REGION BY DAY 7...WITH ALL MODELS HINTING TOWARD ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM DEVELOPING. GENERALLY PREFER THE DETAILS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS ENS MEANS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE GFS LIES NEAR THE FAST
EDGE OF ALL THE GUIDANCE.

FINALLY...STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AT THE START OF DAY 3 SHOULD BE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AFTER
LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY MID ATLC REGION AND POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST COAST SNOW EVENT. INTENSIFYING STROM MOVING ALONG THE
GULFSTREAM EDGE LIKELY TO BE A SERIOUS MARINE THREAT. SEE OPC
WARNINGS.

UPDATED MORNING AND AFTN FINAL MEDIUM RANGE PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL
BEGIN WITH THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF DAYS 3-5 BEFORE SHIFTING TO A
70/30 BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DAYS
6/7. AT 6-7 DAYS OUT THESE MEANS TONE DOWN THE SIGNIFICANT MS
VALLEY LOWS SEEN BY OP MODEL RUNS WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES LATE
PERIOD. HAVE DEPICTED DAY 6-7 EVOLUTION WITH GOOD ENS AGREEMENT
DAYS 5-7 BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ENS MEANS AS CO
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING THE LOW THRU THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
MS VALLEY WITH SNOW ACROSS TEH CENTRAL PALINS LOWER OH VALLEY THEN
SETTING UP A REFORMATION AS A MILLER TYPE B EAST COAST STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS.
JAMES/ROSENSTEIN

[srainhoutx]

12Z ECMWF offers a 'hint' of what may occur around the 26th and 27th. Didn't the EC sniff out the cutoff Upper Low and it's slow movement E bound that will now become the Mid Atlantic Snow Event this coming weekend while the GFS was far more progressive? We shall see. As far as guidance goes. This pattern was projected waaay back in Mid November. Just something to keep in mind.

216 Hrs



240 Hrs

[HockeyTx82]

Ok so perhaps someone can help me out.

So at this point snow (frozen precip) and cold for Christmas is out of the question?

What about the Arctic dump of air after that?

Perhaps I am just reading the latest posts wrong, but it seems that for some reason the attitude has changed about what is going to happen now.......

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Ok so perhaps someone can help me out.

So at this point snow (frozen precip) and cold for Christmas is out of the question?

What about the Arctic dump of air after that?

Perhaps I am just reading the latest posts wrong, but it seems that for some reason the attitude has changed about what is going to happen now.......

The cold and clouds are in for Christmas Eve and Day.

Post Christmas-TBA. It should be cold....

Translation- No shorts or AC for Christmas day at the very least and maybe till 2010.

[HockeyTx82]

Ok so perhaps someone can help me out.

So at this point snow (frozen precip) and cold for Christmas is out of the question?

What about the Arctic dump of air after that?

Perhaps I am just reading the latest posts wrong, but it seems that for some reason the attitude has changed about what is going to happen now.......

The cold and clouds are in for Christmas Eve and Day.

Post Christmas-TBA. It should be cold....

Translation- No shorts or AC for Christmas day at the very least and maybe till 2010.

Sounds good to me. As long as it's cold that is all I want for Christmas, I hate it when it is warm.

Thanks for the help.

[msstateguy83]

hockeytx82 everything is still on the table just kind of in a 'holding' mode its way to early to say either way, models are gonna do what they do they are being wx models, flip, flopping back and fourth which happens ALOT! bottom line chances of winter precip before, after christmas. how cold the air is gonna be and how much moisture we are gonna have around are the two huge ?s and time will only tell on those.. i do see hints of a major arctic outbreak still sometime in the days after christmas leading up to new years... so stay tuned, hold on it very well could be one hellva week next wk..

edit: yea no shorts for sure LOL... bottom line for those of you not way into the model aspects of meteorology just remember the models are gonna go back and fourth several times, yes i trust some runs more then others, its been shown some runs are better then others as has been talked bout before but BOTTOM LINE even this type setup drives the most knowledgeable meteorologist's crazy!!

[Portastorm]

Ok so perhaps someone can help me out.

So at this point snow (frozen precip) and cold for Christmas is out of the question?

What about the Arctic dump of air after that?

Perhaps I am just reading the latest posts wrong, but it seems that for some reason the attitude has changed about what is going to happen now.......

Right now snow looks out for Christmas but I wouldn't close the books on that yet. As for cold ... no, of course not, colder air is definitely coming around Christmas Eve. ALL of the models suggest that. The air over us around Christmas WILL be Arctic air.

I think some salient points have been raised today about the "flip-flop" nature of the models. However, I would caution everyone here to remember that not all facets of the modeling have flip-flopped. Many folks here are looking at the surface level and looking for precip (i.e. snow). I can tell you that for at least 4-5 days straight, the 500mb flow pattern from the GFS has consistently shown that the mechanism will be in place to shunt air from northwestern Canada (-30s and -40s) down into the lee side of the Rockies and into the Southern Plains. There has been no flip-flopping in that sense.

[HockeyTx82]

Ok so perhaps someone can help me out.

So at this point snow (frozen precip) and cold for Christmas is out of the question?

What about the Arctic dump of air after that?

Perhaps I am just reading the latest posts wrong, but it seems that for some reason the attitude has changed about what is going to happen now.......

Right now snow looks out for Christmas but I wouldn't close the books on that yet. As for cold ... no, of course not, colder air is definitely coming around Christmas Eve. ALL of the models suggest that. The air over us around Christmas WILL be Arctic air.

I think some salient points have been raised today about the "flip-flop" nature of the models. However, I would caution everyone here to remember that not all facets of the modeling have flip-flopped. Many folks here are looking at the surface level and looking for precip (i.e. snow). I can tell you that for at least 4-5 days straight, the 500mb flow pattern from the GFS has consistently shown that the mechanism will be in place to shunt air from northwestern Canada (-30s and -40s) down into the lee side of the Rockies and into the Southern Plains. There has been no flip-flopping in that sense.

Interesting. I did not even think that people might be looking for different things in terms of surface temps vs other stuff. Good to know. This is also my first winter on this board so I guess I need to get use to stuff.

[srainhoutx]

Ok so perhaps someone can help me out.

So at this point snow (frozen precip) and cold for Christmas is out of the question?

What about the Arctic dump of air after that?

Perhaps I am just reading the latest posts wrong, but it seems that for some reason the attitude has changed about what is going to happen now.......

The "stepping down" process continues next week just prior to Christmas with a strong Arctic front and very potent Winter Storm from CO/N MX eastward. The "dump" as you call it, will occur behind the Winter Storm as Arctic Air surges very far S in MX. I think folks have had a lot of hopes for a widespread snow event for Christmas that the GFS was painting. It is only December 17th. The snowiest months climo wise are January and February in TX. Perhaps the Dec 4th "teaser" event in SE TX /SW LA raised some hopes a bit. We have not even "officially" entered the Winter Season.