Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Brent]

Flow is just too fast with too many vorts. Can't get anything to really slow down and dig.

Maybe that's what is killing us up here I mean yesterday morning only had like a 2 hour window and then Tuesday looks kind of the same and temps are borderline to start with. It's just killing our snow potential while Kansas keeps getting more and I'm getting tired of it quickly

I don't even care about Arctic air if it isn't going to snow

And yes I know before anyone says anything the GFS buries us on Friday but will it hold up for 6 days? The track record is pathetic so far it's been over a year since I've seen a good trend for snow here in the final couple days

[Iceresistance]

More cold air on the long range GFS. I know the tropical forcing doesn't become too favorable but look at what it's doing. There's trouble in the waters. Sticking around longer in p2.

https://i.imgur.com/Bq1PNz4.gif

This La Nina-like period has created the cold over North America, and as long as it stays there (hello weakened strat vortex?) El Nino blocking is favored Jan-Feb of any +ENSO winter.

Yep, if this forcing starts to slow down watch out…this could get really interesting. Really in somewhat uncharted territory looking at analogs, there just aren’t many out there similar

The only one that is even close to being similar to this as far as I know is 1949

[Ntxw]

Flow is just too fast with too many vorts. Can't get anything to really slow down and dig.

Maybe that's what is killing us up here I mean yesterday morning only had like a 2 hour window and then Tuesday looks kind of the same and temps are borderline to start with. It's just killing our snow potential while Kansas keeps getting more and I'm getting tired of it quickly

I don't even care about Arctic air if it isn't going to snow

And yes I know before anyone says anything the GFS buries us on Friday but will it hold up for 6 days? The track record is pathetic so far it's been over a year since I've seen a good trend for snow here in the final couple days

Cold source has been lacking, been working with Pacific air. This is just a fact we have lived with. Cold air is starting to funnel from the Arctic and will build in the coming days.

[Harp.1]

Any indication of these vorts slowing down and digging deeper?

[Cpv17]

Any indication of these vorts slowing down and digging deeper?

I’d say the precipitation and cold part has trended a lil better for us in the last 24 hours or so.

[Stratton23]

Yeah the 12z GEFS and GEPS are definitely more bullish with precipitation now, good!

[chickypez]

What would the timing be for all this for North Texas/DFW?

[rwfromkansas]

Shouldn’t that Greenland block force storms to dig and become stronger?

I am liking what I read today overall but that’s the piece missing.

[Harp.1]

POW Weather just said SSW occurred on January 4th. Cold coming more intense than models are depicting. Precip unknown at this point. We’ll see what happens.

[Cpv17]

Shouldn’t that Greenland block force storms to dig and become stronger?

I am liking what I read today overall but that’s the piece missing.

This! ^

I was thinking the same exact thing. And a big -NAO block like that is supposed to slow the flow.

[gpsnowman]

What would the timing be for all this for North Texas/DFW?

I believe next Friday is the initial surge and by the weekend we would be in the deep freeze. Still 6 days out so all that could change. These fronts have a tendency to blast through earlier and colder than modeled.

[gpsnowman]

Shouldn’t that Greenland block force storms to dig and become stronger?

I am liking what I read today overall but that’s the piece missing.

Orangeblood posted a map above depicting higher heights over Greenland that should slow the flow.

[Ntxw]

Shouldn’t that Greenland block force storms to dig and become stronger?

I am liking what I read today overall but that’s the piece missing.

This! ^

I was thinking the same exact thing. And a big -NAO block like that is supposed to slow the flow.

Flow is slow, that's why the Arctic is backed out of it's location. What's fast is the energy swinging around the displaced vortex. Of course, we're talking about modelling of these pieces of energy, it hasn't happened yet.

[orangeblood]

What would the timing be for all this for North Texas/DFW?

I believe next Friday is the initial surge and by the weekend we would be in the deep freeze. Still 6 days out so all that could change. These fronts have a tendency to blast through earlier and colder than modeled.

Yes, Friday has a lot of potential for a winter storm across North Texas into Oklahoma then after Arctic Air gets entrenched across the lower 48 any minor disturbance could create more chances. Cold is always the first ingredient!

[Iceresistance]

Shouldn’t that Greenland block force storms to dig and become stronger?

I am liking what I read today overall but that’s the piece missing.

This! ^

I was thinking the same exact thing. And a big -NAO block like that is supposed to slow the flow.

Flow is slow, that's why the Arctic is backed out of it's location. What's fast is the energy swinging around the displaced vortex. Of course, we're talking about modelling of these pieces of energy, it hasn't happened yet.

The models tend to be too fast with storm systems

[Gotwood]

So is this Arctic intrusion due to the SSW?

[Ntxw]

Euro almost 1058hp with severe cold lined up the spine of the North American Rockies.

[orangeblood]

Euro almost 1058hp with severe cold lined up the spine of the North American Rockies.

Canadian says hold my beer….1074 with nose of 1062 into Montana

[Cpv17]

Euro almost 1058hp with severe cold lined up the spine of the North American Rockies.

Canadian says hold my beer….1074 with nose of 1062 into Montana

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/namer/mslp_anom/1704542400/1705406400-okNDBRQk01g.png

Damn, Gina!!

[orangeblood]

the origin of both HPs on Euro and CMC originate from the major storm moving thru central US early next week. This storm as it moves northeast will set off massive height rises across Greenland into the Beaufort with the subsequent HP retrograding to our source region for cold in NW Canada. GFS is outlier, pinching HP off and sending it to other side of globe