Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

[Big Easy]

00z nam 42 hours..loving it

I wonder what that map means for the New Orleans area? It lookslike some pretty good backside cold air wrap around and significant moisture. How much does that map indicate if it were to fall as snow? 1-3 inches, 3-6, how much?

New Orleans...home of the Superbowl Champions!

WHO DAT! Not the Colts!

[MGC]

Yep, models to appear to be trending colder. Might get a little of the white stuff down here on the beach.....we shall see.....MGC

[Ivanhater]

Yep, models to appear to be trending colder. Might get a little of the white stuff down here on the beach.....we shall see.....MGC

If you go by the new Nam, possibly 3 to 6 inches on the coast!

[m_ru]

Yep, models to appear to be trending colder. Might get a little of the white stuff down here on the beach.....we shall see.....MGC

If you go by the new Nam, possibly 3 to 6 inches on the coast!

Ugh. I want it so bad!!!!!!

[SunnyThoughts]

Ivan, just heard on Fox10 news that Santa Rosa county has Sand all ready to go for the roads and bridges should they need it. Looks as though city and county officials are on top of the situation. Guess we are all just in " wait and see" mode now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yep, models to appear to be trending colder. Might get a little of the white stuff down here on the beach.....we shall see.....MGC

If you go by the new Nam, possibly 3 to 6 inches on the coast!

I don't know about 3 - 6 inches, the NAM actually looks closer to 1 - 3 inches according to its snowfall map..



..but even so, that would still be considered a major snowstorm for your region, the likes of which has not been experienced since at least March 1993 or December 1989.

[Ivanhater]

Hey Extreme, you are more inclined to digest snow models (more than someone like me from Pensacola lol). Looking at the precip output it looks like more than 3 inches falling in my region. Is the map your showing, calling for actual accumulation as opposed to what actually falls? I see it says snowfall "depth". What would be the ratio according to the precip output from the nam?

[Ntxw]

I would think snow depth is how much snow is on the ground. Most of the other models that show higher amounts depict how much snow falls (probably not including the melting during the onset etc.). My two cents

[smw1981]

Actually, the last time it snowed here (in Mobile, AL) was 1996. I remember this because I was in high school and they closed the schools at 1:00pm and I was sooo happy to be able to leave early lol. Unfortunately, once you have a real job, you don't get to leave early even if a snow storm hits us. (BTW - 1 or even 2 inches of snow should be considered a "snow storm" on the immediate gulf coast. lol) Regardless of whether it snows or not, I still have to go to work, but I hope it does for all of you guys that will get out of work/school on Friday! Good luck!

[mtm4319]

So, what does this mean for my flight out of Pensacola (to Houston) Saturday morning? Could it really be delayed or canceled due to SNOW?! (or will the snow/ice/etc. be gone by then?)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey Extreme, you are more inclined to digest snow models (more than someone like me from Pensacola lol). Looking at the precip output it looks like more than 3 inches falling in my region. Is the map your showing, calling for actual accumulation as opposed to what actually falls? I see it says snowfall "depth". What would be the ratio according to the precip output from the nam?

If you had perfect conditions..a cold ground, below freezing surface temperatures, and 10:1 or higher snow ratios..then yes, there would easily be more than 3 inches. In fact there would be well over 6 to 8 inches of snow. Unfortunately though, as is usually the case in the deep south, the conditions will not be perfect. The warm ground, near/above freezing air temperatures, and lower snow ratios means that the snow will have a much harder time accumulating. If you get a few heavier snow bands then accumulations can still occur, but all the negative factors I mentioned would help to reduce the totals. Instead of 6 to 8+ inches of fluffy snow, you would get closer to an inch or two (or three if very lucky) of wet snow. On the plus side though, the wet snow is better for making snowballs and snowmen, so it would definitely be a more exciting and fun variety for everyone who rarely gets to see the white stuff along the gulf coast.

[Ivanhater]

Thanks Extreme...36 hour GFS....loving this one too!

[Ivanhater]

42 hours

[Brent]

Heavy snow from here to the beach? I must be dreaming

[SunnyThoughts]

For those who know more about how to read these things, does this (from the NAM) show 5.1 " total for Pensacola? wow if so.

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kpns.txt

[Ivanhater]

WOW! New nam snowfall output...some parts of NW Florida close to 6 inches!!

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=MOB

[Brent]

[SunnyThoughts]

We aren't even under a winterstorm watch in the Panhandle of Fla...guess that will change if the NWS believes these models.

[Ivanhater]

We aren't even under a winterstorm watch in the Panhandle of Fla...guess that will change if the NWS believes these models.

The Panhandle gets crushed with about 5 inches of snow according to the new NAM and GFS...i GUARANTEE will be under it tomorrow morning