We got HAMMERED by the convergance zone starting around 1:00! Heavy rain which turned to hail for a little bit, just enough to start covering everything, then back to heavy rain!! Most rain in almost a month. Then the zone moved south, and its now mostly clear, and windy with a temp of 44 degrees.
Wild weather today that is for sure!!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Latest NWS Forecast Discussion for Sunday morning:
At least they mention that if one thing goes our way, places East of Puget Sound may have an increased chance at seeing some lowland snow.
.SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND WET
SYSTEM NOW NEAR 50N/155W AS IT MOVES E INTO A COLD UPPER LOW THAT IS
DIGGING SE FROM THE GULF OF AK INTO THE PAC NW. THE ETA CONTINUES TO
DROP THE LOW THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO NW OREGON WHILE THE
GFS CARRIES THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE ETA WITH ITS
MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OF ELY FLOW OFF THE
CASCADES GIVES LESS PRECIPITATION TO THE INTERIOR THAN THE GFS THAT
CARRIES THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER E. MODEL TRENDS GENERALLY SUPPORT
THE DRIER ETA SOLUTION THAT IS BEING FOLLOWED. IF PRECIPITATION
RATES ARE SUFFICIENT...THERE COULD BE A LITTLE WET SNOW SUN MORNING
ALONG HOOD CANAL AND IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE E SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT ISOTHERMAL 0C. HOWEVER DON`T EXPECT ANY SNOW E OF PUGET
SOUND AS PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE LOW AND DRYING/WARMING OFF THE
CASCADES SHOULD DOMINATE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH AS
A SHIFT FARTHER E COULD BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF LOWLAND SN E OF THE SOUND.
At least they mention that if one thing goes our way, places East of Puget Sound may have an increased chance at seeing some lowland snow.
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R-Dub wrote:We got HAMMERED by the convergance zone starting around 1:00! Heavy rain which turned to hail for a little bit, just enough to start covering everything, then back to heavy rain!! Most rain in almost a month. Then the zone moved south, and its now mostly clear, and windy with a temp of 44 degrees.
Wild weather today that is for sure!!
Yeah, it sure does go to show you how much rain a PSCZ can drop in one area, and how little it can drop in another area. We only got 0.03" of rain this morning, being during a short 20 minute or so period of showers. The main story here today has been the wind, and it hasn't even been that strong. Though, in the past half hour it has been increasing somewhat. Sustained at 10-12 mph and gusting to 25 mph.
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Snipit from latest NWS Seattle.........Things still very much still in the air, and I like that. Just be ready for anything.......
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 245 PM PST FRI FEB 4 2005
IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE SUFFICIENT...THERE COULD BE A LITTLE WET SNOW SUN MORNING ALONG HOOD CANAL AND IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE E SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ISOTHERMAL 0C. HOWEVER DON`T EXPECT ANY SNOW E OF PUGET SOUND AS PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE LOW AND DRYING/WARMING OFF THE CASCADES SHOULD DOMINATE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH AS A SHIFT FARTHER E COULD BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF LOWLAND SN E OF THE SOUND. ALBRECHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 245 PM PST FRI FEB 4 2005
IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE SUFFICIENT...THERE COULD BE A LITTLE WET SNOW SUN MORNING ALONG HOOD CANAL AND IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE E SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ISOTHERMAL 0C. HOWEVER DON`T EXPECT ANY SNOW E OF PUGET SOUND AS PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE LOW AND DRYING/WARMING OFF THE CASCADES SHOULD DOMINATE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH AS A SHIFT FARTHER E COULD BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF LOWLAND SN E OF THE SOUND. ALBRECHT
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R-Dub wrote:Snipit from latest NWS Seattle.........Things still very much still in the air, and I like that. Just be ready for anything.......
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 245 PM PST FRI FEB 4 2005
IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE SUFFICIENT...THERE COULD BE A LITTLE WET SNOW SUN MORNING ALONG HOOD CANAL AND IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE E SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ISOTHERMAL 0C. HOWEVER DON`T EXPECT ANY SNOW E OF PUGET SOUND AS PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE LOW AND DRYING/WARMING OFF THE CASCADES SHOULD DOMINATE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH AS A SHIFT FARTHER E COULD BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF LOWLAND SN E OF THE SOUND. ALBRECHT
Yes, if you take a look at my post on the end of Page 69 in this thread, you will see how much the models are differing on the situation for Saturday Night/Sunday Morning. We will just have to wait and see, keep checking the temperature and watching the latest radar returns. That is by far the most accurate way of watching the weather.
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After a busy morning and afternoon, the skies have cleared and it's beautiful outside!!! Mostly sunny and temperatures have significantly warmed to almost 50 F. I'm still happy with the weather we go this morning. lol.
As for Sunday, I won't say too much right now. I know there will be heated debate about this event tonight. Let's just say this system has potential, but also a high-bust rate. In any event, it's something to watch and track. As always, the track of the surface low will be the crucial element to this evolving system.
NWS has also raised next week's temperatures significantly from this morning...they were calling for mid-upper 40s from Tuesday-Thursday...but now they have mid 50s by Thursday. Still mention the ridge will collapse by Friday.
Anthony
As for Sunday, I won't say too much right now. I know there will be heated debate about this event tonight. Let's just say this system has potential, but also a high-bust rate. In any event, it's something to watch and track. As always, the track of the surface low will be the crucial element to this evolving system.
NWS has also raised next week's temperatures significantly from this morning...they were calling for mid-upper 40s from Tuesday-Thursday...but now they have mid 50s by Thursday. Still mention the ridge will collapse by Friday.
Anthony
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Re: Good Luck
aveosmth wrote:Hope you guys get the snow you've been looking for this weekend....hey wait a minute you guys stole Adrian Beltre from us...just kidding...good luck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That's right, he is now a pacific northwesterner!!!
I have a feeling the Mariners will be a whole lot better this yr
That is quite a temp difference Anthony, we are at 43 degrees, clear and windy from the NW, while you are at 50 Degrees.
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Re: Good Luck
aveosmth wrote:Hope you guys get the snow you've been looking for this weekend....hey wait a minute you guys stole Adrian Beltre from us...just kidding...good luck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hopefully we do get lots of snow this weekend. Sorry about Beltre!
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AnthonyC wrote:After a busy morning and afternoon, the skies have cleared and it's beautiful outside!!! Mostly sunny and temperatures have significantly warmed to almost 50 F. I'm still happy with the weather we go this morning. lol.
As for Sunday, I won't say too much right now. I know there will be heated debate about this event tonight. Let's just say this system has potential, but also a high-bust rate. In any event, it's something to watch and track. As always, the track of the surface low will be the crucial element to this evolving system.
NWS has also raised next week's temperatures significantly from this morning...they were calling for mid-upper 40s from Tuesday-Thursday...but now they have mid 50s by Thursday. Still mention the ridge will collapse by Friday.
Anthony
I can't wait for this heated debate!
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I think we should give a little credit for to Snowwiz (and a few other people "cough Cough" )for seeing this potential for lowland snow several days ago. Everyone kept saying NO WAY.......WILL NOT HAPPEN........NWS IS SAYING NOTHING ABOUT THIS, NOPE NOT A CHANCE.
Not that it will happen, but for people saying that there is NO potential a few days back, or even yesterday was a little premature.
Okay that is my debate for now, I am tired after a week of trying to keep up with grass growing a hundred miles an hour. Be back in a few hours.
)for seeing this potential for lowland snow several days ago. Everyone kept saying NO WAY.......WILL NOT HAPPEN........NWS IS SAYING NOTHING ABOUT THIS, NOPE NOT A CHANCE.
Not that it will happen, but for people saying that there is NO potential a few days back, or even yesterday was a little premature.
Okay that is my debate for now, I am tired after a week of trying to keep up with grass growing a hundred miles an hour.
Be back in a few hours.
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R-Dub wrote:I think we should give a little credit for to Snowwiz (and a few other people "cough Cough"
Not that it will happen, but for people saying that there is NO potential a few days back, or even yesterday was a little premature.
Okay that is my debate for now, I am tired after a week of trying to keep up with grass growing a hundred miles an hour.
It will be quite interesting to see what TT-SEA has to say about all of the latest developments. I have a feeling that he will deny that there is a possibility at widespread lowland snow until it actually begins, but you never know. Even the most pessimistic sometimes turn into optimisitc people.
Can't wait for the 0z GFS and the latest runs of the other models. I have a feeling that a lot of people are going to be surprised come Sunday morning, but we will just have to wait and see what exactly unfolds.
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Nice to see it snowing up in the mountains again. http://www.stevenspass.com/html/misc/webcam.shtml
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andrewr wrote:Nice to see it snowing up in the mountains again. http://www.stevenspass.com/html/misc/webcam.shtml
Yep, that sure is a refreshing picture.
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TT-SEA
I would get excited IF there was something to excited about...
I NEVER said that snow was impossible. I said it was unlikely and IF it happened it would be NO big deal. This is unfolding exactly as I thought.
BTW - today was a pretty nice spring day. VERY springlike feeling. Fast moving clouds, sunshine, wind, showers. Very pretty day.
Anyways... the 18Z run of the ETA took the precipitation FARTHER south. This is the big day here... Sunday. Tell what there is to get excited about???
I NEVER said that snow was impossible. I said it was unlikely and IF it happened it would be NO big deal. This is unfolding exactly as I thought.
BTW - today was a pretty nice spring day. VERY springlike feeling. Fast moving clouds, sunshine, wind, showers. Very pretty day.
Anyways... the 18Z run of the ETA took the precipitation FARTHER south. This is the big day here... Sunday. Tell what there is to get excited about???
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TT-SEA wrote:I would get excited IF there was something to excited about...
I NEVER said that snow was impossible. I said it was unlikely and IF it happened it would be NO big deal. This is unfolding exactly as I thought.
BTW - today was a pretty nice spring day. VERY springlike feeling. Fast moving clouds, sunshine, wind, showers. Very pretty day.
Anyways... the 18Z run of the ETA took the precipitation FARTHER south. This is the big day here... Sunday. Tell what there is to get excited about???
That is ONE model. You should consider the other models as well, as I have been doing recently. There is the NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF (the most accurate weather model this winter, thus far), and many more. I would like to see you examine all of the latest runs of these particular models, or refer back to my post on Page 69 where I examined a few of them. I will quote that post so that it appears on this page as well.
Second of all, this weekend still has great potential. There is most likely a 50/50 chance at this point, even the NWS is pretty much admitting that. The Hood Canal area and the West Slopes of the Olympics could see snow, and if a few things go in our favor then so could places east of Puget Sound.
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