Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[SunnyThoughts]

I would have NEVER guessed it would be possible to get that much, but I won't complain at ALL

[gulfcoastdave]

watch and warnings will change by 4-6am on thursday morning. If models remain like they have been , NWS will add the panhandle. Alabama area were added earlier due to them be further west than us

[MGC]

NWS Slidell mentioned a 8:1 ratio in a discussion I read. Looks like a heavy wet snow......MGC

[StormingB81]

I just heard it is supposed to snow in Tallahasse in a couple of days...any chance central florida may see some winter weather again? That would be crazy two see that twice in a year!

[Dean4Storms]

Sure enough and note that the 00z runs have the Low further south. I believe we see some heavy enough bursts of snow to get some accumulations all the way down to the coast. How much will all depend on how heavy the bursts and the duration of the change over before it ends!

[Jag95]

I'm trying to keep an objective eye and do see some negatives, but I'm feeling good about seeing some real snow this time around. Even the GFS is very close to bringing the heavy stuff close to the coast. I don't know if the models take into account the evaporational cooling I've been hearing about, but the skew t forecasts show a low dew point at about 3000 feet tomorrow night. The only real negative is the 850-700 temp, which that may negate. If it doesn't happen this time then I'm ready for summer.

.UPDATE...EVENING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. WILL UPDATE THE WINTER STORM WATCH JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME. EVENING
MODEL RUN DATA STILL COMING IN...AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR
STILL INDICATES THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
00Z NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS FOR KMOB AND KGZH INDICATE HEAVY SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE BY AROUND 17Z FRIDAY...WITH EVEN THE KPNS SOUNDING
INDICATING A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AT TIMES AROUND LATE
MORNING FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER
OUR INTERIOR ZONES...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA WITH
TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...SO STAY TUNED. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL LIKELY MAKE FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...AND A WINTER STORM WARNING OR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE
WATCH AREA. 12/DS

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Being within 24 hrs of the storm what model/s usually perform the best in the winter? Reason I am asking is because our forecast has and continues to flip flop all day. Nobody seems to have a good handle on things yet.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Canadian also showing the Gulfcoast snowstorm

[DEEDEE911]

local weather is saying that meadville mississippi which is located in franklin county can see 13 inches of snow this is in southwest mississippi but about 40 miles away is only going to see up to 4 inches why such a big difference

[Snowluvr]

42 hours

Thanks Ivan for keeping us updated with these maps. This looks as if it will be my dream storm! Possibly a once in a lifetime event. Let's hope it pans out.

[StormingB81]

Has Mississippi ever seen ovr a foot of snow at once?

[Brent]

[attallaman]

42 hours

Thanks Ivan for keeping us updated with these maps. This looks as if it will be my dream storm! Possibly a once in a lifetime event. Let's hope it pans out.

Got your camera ready? I hope you see some of the white stuff too.

[attallaman]

Has Mississippi ever seen ovr a foot of snow at once?

Not in my part of Mississippi, maybe 3" in my neighborhood many years ago and it was so cold that it stayed on the ground for a day, melted away the next day but it was nice for a day and provided good photo ops that year.

[attallaman]

Accuweather is saying this for my area for Friday, February 12th.

Friday, Feb 12
High: 46 °F RealFeel®: 34 °F
Cloudy and chilly; a wintry mix in the morning, up to 1" followed by a little rain in the afternoon

[Sabanic]

I hope this pans out. Mobile's forecast from NWS . . .

Tonight: A chance of rain before midnight, then rain and snow. Low around 35. North wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of one inch possible.

Friday: Rain and snow. High near 36. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[timNms]

WOW

EFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...
MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...
PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
427 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM
CST FRIDAY...

TODAY
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
TONIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EARLY EVENING
THEN SNOW
FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
FRIDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING
THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
5 TO 8 INCHES. CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. THE CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

[timNms]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
441 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

..SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ043-047>066-072>074-111845-
/O.UPG.KJAN.WS.A.0002.100212T0300Z-100212T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.W.0002.100212T0000Z-100212T2000Z/
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RAYVILLE...DELHI...TALLULAH...
WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...
WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...RIDGELAND...
MADISON...CANTON...VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...
RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...
CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...
HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...TAYLORSVILLE...
RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...STONEWALL...
SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE...
BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...
COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...
LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
441 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 2 PM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND
WILL BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HIGHWAY 84 AND 98 CORRIDORS...WILL RANGE
FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ALONG
INTERSTATE 20...INCLUDING THE VICKSBURG...JACKSON AND MERIDIAN
AREAS...TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. JUST NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20...AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 10 PM AND 10 AM BEFORE TAPERING
OFF.

THESE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. THE HEAVY...WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE HEAVIER AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR. EVERYONE IN THE
WARNED AREA SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PREPARE FOR
MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

[gwynnsh]

It looks like Mobile, AL is going to get a few inches throughout Friday but I'm planning on heading north to my hometown of jackson, AL this evening which is about an hour north of Mobile (65 Miles or so North). It appears that Jackson, AL will get a couple of more inches than Mobile, maybe around 4-6 inches of snow accumulation. Can anyone tell by the models if this is correct? Thanks for your input. Oh, and I like your avatar saban. Roll Tide!!!

[attallaman]

From Accuweather, their map indicates my area will receive a mixture of winter precip but areas to my north will get it pretty good, a Kodak moment good for this part of the deep south.

http://ow.ly/16f8s