Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

Thanks to all of you for all the great information about the possible upcoming weather events!! As always i was sucked in again over the last couple of days and was getting really pumped about the potential and now the models are backing off it appears! I knew i shouldn't have started reading this thread! I always jinx it when I do!! LOL! Again, thanks for all the great information! It really breaks up the boredom of work everyday!

Its way too early to be specific really... all we really know is likely some level of extreme cold is coming and there's potential for a storm... beyond that, its impossible to tell this far out.

The models will sway run to run(this is the same GFS that said it wouldn't get cold last week.. ), you just have to watch broader general ideas at this range

The cold weather looks very likely.

Yeah I'm pretty much convinced the cold is coming

The big question is whether theres a storm or not to me, but I wouldn't get too caught up in the GFS precip/temp frames for 10-12 days out... it's just gonna change next run

[spencer817]

Weatherbell models show 0.25-0.5 inches of frz rain and the liquid equivalent of 0.5 inches of snow (so 5 inches of snow). This run wasnt that bad if you want snow or ice, but the first storm wasn't as promising.

Which storm is it?

The one around 13-14 days from now, I would show you it but idk how to add pics on here.

[Theepicman116]

God help this forum if we are still showing this output on Sunday. It's really going to shoot to 100 pages real fast.

Do a lot of people who don’t regularly post on here show up when a winter storm is looming over the horizon?

[spencer817]

God help this forum if we are still showing this output on Sunday. It's really going to shoot to 100 pages real fast.

Do a lot of people who don’t regularly post on here show up when a winter storm is looming over the horizon?

Well i tend to post more, maybe other people do the same.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

God help this forum if we are still showing this output on Sunday. It's really going to shoot to 100 pages real fast.

Do a lot of people who don’t regularly post on here show up when a winter storm is looming over the horizon?

Yes, and then you have the seasonal people like me who only show up from November through March.

[spencer817]

God help this forum if we are still showing this output on Sunday. It's really going to shoot to 100 pages real fast.

Do a lot of people who don’t regularly post on here show up when a winter storm is looming over the horizon?

Yes, and then you have the seasonal people like me who only show up from November through March.

Because winter is where its at, although severe weather can be great too.

[Brent]

God help this forum if we are still showing this output on Sunday. It's really going to shoot to 100 pages real fast.

Do a lot of people who don’t regularly post on here show up when a winter storm is looming over the horizon?

**IF**(still a big if at this juncture), a statewide winter storm does appear likely then yeah you won't be able to keep up with this thread

[South Texas Storms]

There is just so much energy coming off the Pacific into the western U.S. and Canada that I suspect the operational models will continue to struggle over the next few days. That's why it is key to stick closer to the ensembles until the operational models get a better handle on the pattern for next week.

[orangeblood]

Watch the Ensembles. You can sort of tell what to believe by using them imposed on the OP.

Remember, GFS is progressive happy. It loves to rush things and slip things east in most patterns. Euro can drag ULLs too much. Take the middle ground beyond truncation.

I believe the Canadian is progressive happy as well...although, today's 12Z Canadian ENS mean is trending more progressive. Have a long ways to go before honing in on any one solution. Strength/Position of Trough around Hawaii will have huge implications downstream

[bevolon]

I show up every winter at this time! Great insight and everyone is very nice and helpful. I very seldom post but i do log on every day!

[Texas Snowman]

God help this forum if we are still showing this output on Sunday. It's really going to shoot to 100 pages real fast.

Do a lot of people who don’t regularly post on here show up when a winter storm is looming over the horizon?

**IF**(still a big if at this juncture), a statewide winter storm does appear likely then yeah you won't be able to keep up with this thread

It will be the wintertime equivalent of Harvey approaching the Texas coast...

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the 12Z ECMWF and comparing the 500mb flow with the 12Z GFS. There is a world of difference between the two by late next week. They're not even close as far as the pattern by days 8-9. That just means our Christmas weather is still VERY uncertain.

[Brent]

end of the Euro has a massive trough digging deep into Baja California, still warm for us

and yeah big differences from the GFS which has a trough digging down into Texas at the exact same time

[South Texas Storms]

So the 12z Euro Op shifted west, while the 12z GFS Op shifted east with the position of the main trough. I think the solution is somewhere close to in the middle (trough over the Rockies, or close to where the ensembles have it).

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

So the 12z Euro Op shifted west, while the 12z GFS Op shifted east with the position of the main trough. I think the solution is somewhere close to in the middle (trough over the Rockies, or close to where the ensembles have it).

Which model did the better job with last weeks winter weather event? This far out I should add.

[wxman57]

Here's a comparison between lase evening's 00Z Euro and the current 12Z Euro valid for next Friday evening. What cold air?

[wxman57]

So the 12z Euro Op shifted west, while the 12z GFS Op shifted east with the position of the main trough. I think the solution is somewhere close to in the middle (trough over the Rockies, or close to where the ensembles have it).

Which model did the better job with last weeks winter weather event? This far out I should add.

The models didn't do a very good job with last week's snow event until 2-3 days before it happened.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Here's a comparison between lase evening's 00Z Euro and the current 12Z Euro valid for next Friday evening. What cold air?

http://wxman57.com/images/ECcompare.gif

The Euro EC and OP 12z is worlds apart. I'll stick with the EPS

[stormlover2013]

HRR model did the best and the nam about 2-3 days out

[wxman57]

HRR model did the best and the nam about 2-3 days out

All the models did reasonably well only 2-3 days out. WRF-ARW2 was the best for snow accumulations. GFS was way too dry. NAM 3k was a lot better than the GFS, but was still a bit too dry.