Texas Winter 2018-2019

[TheProfessor]

Wednesday definitely has me intrigued. In case any of you weren't aware Wednesday will be the 3 year anniversary of the Rockwall tornado. Other than that these two storm systems aren't very similar. The 2015 system was a positively tilted trough that was pretty strong and created some pretty impressive windshear over North and Central Texas. However, imo, what made that storm system was the well above normal temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico. Originally SPC was only expecting CAPE to be around 500-1500 J, supporting QLCS tornadoes, however, CAPE ended up being above 3K J. Temps were in the low 70s that day and dewpoints were near or at 70 as well. The Skew-T was pretty evident for the risk of severe weather as it was a signature loaded gun.

This Wednesday is interesting though. Windshear may not be as impressive, but the system is looking like it could be negatively tilted. The LLJ at the 850 level looks like it could be potent. There's some decent turning in the lower atmosphere as well. The GFS has also been slowing trending upwards with temperatures and dewpoints. One thing to look at it is that the northern Gulf of Mexico is fairly below normal right now, however, the southern Gulf is a little bit above normal. A negatively tilted system will likely be able to tap into more of that moisture. It will definitely be interesting to see how high temps and dewpoints trend. I would definitely not sleep on this system.

[South Texas Storms]

Man, the models are really pounding the southeast with a ton of rain. I’m jealous.

The models are trending towards heavier rainfall across TX next week. I think much of the eastern half of the state will see around 1-3 inches of rain from the potent storm system that will push through Wednesday into Thursday.

And yes I agree, we will definitely have a risk of severe weather with this disturbance as well.

[Ntxw]

At the end of the FV3/Euro runs, you can see the North Atlantic block teeing up. Starting to latch on to the Ensembles.

[Ntxw]

EPS and GEFS rolling forward are now beginning to show the big -NAO/-AO over the polar regions and NATL. Also possible is the reflection of SSW, while I don't think we see severe cold with this SSW it will likely dislodge more cold air into the -NAO pattern. The Aleutian low also retrogrades from Alaska to form the snowier/colder weak-mod Nino look that we had a taste of late November and early December. Dec 28-31 will give a glimpse of colder air as the Pacific buckles some and less zonal, but the real fun likely happens the second week of January.

If you want to see a repeat of '78 then having the Hudson->Greenland west based NAO go crazy helps

https://images2.imgbox.com/8f/b7/Qh4Vl8io_o.jpg

Yep, and don't underestimate this SSW...there appears to now be consensus with all Models that this will become a Major SSW with a PV split around the 30th +/-. And it appears the weakened main portion of the Vortex might be coming to our side of the world, if that kind of block gets locked in and the PV is underneath, look out below - Jan 2019 is becoming really really interesting!!!

Dr. Amy Butler reminds us via Twitter today that not all SSW events work out good for us. She highlighted the Dec 2001 event that had a similar setup to now but ended up not delivering the cold.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Du9YtQIUwAELD7o.jpg

However, typically SSW events do deliver the cold.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Du9ZergUYAA6oI_.jpg

Dr. Butler is very informative and tweets a lot of her research at @DrAHButler

Winter 2001-2002 was a good winter snow wise for DFW. Feb and March equaled nearly 4" of snow! Fueled by a monthly -AO that likely was aided by that very SSW!

[Portastorm]

Not trying to start any rumors or anything but this photo was posted this morning on the Internet ... photo was taken as this truck was reportedly headed towards southwest Austin.

[ztshanklin]

End of year could really be interesting.

Yes, it's certainly looking interesting right now. Still plenty of time to watch, but I'm liking the trends!

By the way, welcome to Storm2K!

Thank you. Been lurking a few years, finally decided to sign up.

[Cpv17]

This looks really nice!

[gboudx]

Wednesday definitely has me intrigued. In case any of you weren't aware Wednesday will be the 3 year anniversary of the Rockwall tornado.

It was actually Rowlett. No part of the City of Rockwall was impacted, but some of the parts of Rowlett that were impacted are in Rockwall County. My estimation is the circulation center probably passed about 300 yards west of my house, as it went NE over the lake. My kids pediatrician's office was completely destroyed, except for the room where the patient files were stored. Isn't that interesting?

[carrye d]

Hello, I'm new to this forum and have been following you guys for a couple of years. I don't know a lot about weather but it is a huge interest of mine and I've learned so much just from yall.

[Ntxw]

Hello, I'm new to this forum and have been following you guys for a couple of years. I don't know a lot about weather but it is a huge interest of mine and I've learned so much just from yall.

Welcome! Happy to see you decided to jump in with us and discuss!

[Cpv17]

Hello, I'm new to this forum and have been following you guys for a couple of years. I don't know a lot about weather but it is a huge interest of mine and I've learned so much just from yall.

Welcome! Thanks for signing up. The more the merrier.

[WinterMax]

GFS is all over the place for end of month, early January, as many here predicted, well done. That's why I read this forum.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

40% chance of mixed frozen precip on the always accurate weatherbug forecast on day 10. Even though it’s weatherbug I’ll take it, rare to see that even in a bad forecast in Frisco. Pete Delkus just tweeted that he doesn’t see any winter precip in the next ten days, so considering my respect for wfaa weather my gut is saying blizzard on New Year’s Eve for DFW.

[Brent]

[TheProfessor]

Would be a nasty ice storm on the FV3 out west.

[Brent]

very cold rain on the 0z Euro mostly

The cold is definitely coming next weekend

[bubba hotep]

00z EPS showing a bit of spread for early January with some members showing highs in the 70s and others showing lows in the teens for DFW lol

About half the members show some form of frozen precipitation with the mean pushing 1".

[bubba hotep]

I'll gladly take my chances with what the 06z GEFS is showing, just need to get the timing right with one system.

[Ntxw]

A couple of notes this morning, I've been following the HP for next weekend and it is a product of high pressure crossing over from Siberia. The risk here is that the air mass may be colder than currently modeled (these kinds of things usually do).

Secondly the 500mb pattern (SE ridge) has a tendency to trend towards cold coming more clearly down the plains (there is an escape path to eastern Canada however) so we'll have to watch this.


Third, analogous historical patterns of such set up with a big trough in the southwest and shallow, dense cold air has shown to provide opportunities for icing. Assuming air mass is sufficiently cold.

Next weekend's cold wave is a result of the East Pacific Oscillation buckling. By far, will be the strongest HP to date this season.

[wxman57]

Looks like all the models keep backing away from (and delaying) any very cold/ice across Texas after New Year's. There are SO many run-to-run differences. Don't believe any solution you see beyond 2-3 days.