Texas Winter 2025-2026

[DukeMu]

The eastern ridge could hold on, but we have a maybe.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2026010218/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_61.png

[Sambucol2024]

The eastern ridge could hold on, but we have a maybe.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2026010218/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_61.png

Is this good for us in Texas for cold weather here?

[Harp.1]

It won’t open

[Lastcall88]

Well it’s softball season starting next week, so I’m back everyone! Just finished reading all 71 pages! Wxman I’m still in your corner. Keep the 80s here! But seriously enjoy reading and learning and keeping my school and team with an early heads up. Literally we closed school based on this site when everyone else stayed open and then they had to close at the last minute.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Happy New Year to my favorite winter weather board, it's been awhile mainly due to the most dreadful start to winter I can ever remember! But fear no more, WINTER IS COMING! The ENS members are finally showing the look we want to see end of week 2....could be a really potent Arctic Outbreak, with the door to brutal Alaskan Air finally opening up, heading down the spine of the Rockies mid-month!
Glad to see you back! Hoping your correct but I think it's the lack of a mjo signal that's not allowing a true cold pattern to evolve for us, but just speculation

Cheers to the New Year and hopefully, something more enlightening for all of us weather nerds to discuss on here in the weeks to come!

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Happy New Year to my favorite winter weather board, it's been awhile mainly due to the most dreadful start to winter I can ever remember! But fear no more, WINTER IS COMING! The ENS members are finally showing the look we want to see end of week 2....could be a really potent Arctic Outbreak, with the door to brutal Alaskan Air finally opening up, heading down the spine of the Rockies mid-month!

Cheers to the New Year and hopefully, something more enlightening for all of us weather nerds to discuss on here in the weeks to come!

Glad to see you back! I hope your correct. Imo, I believe the lack of a coherent mjo signal is causing the models aggravation. Its been interesting so far

[Brent]

I'm not giving up on the 11th-13th timeframe yet

The EPS has definitely come back a bit and apparently the Euro AI has a winter storm with some snow even in DFW

Sometimes the op runs don't mean anything

[wxman22]

I'm not giving up on the 11th-13th timeframe yet

The EPS has definitely come back a bit and apparently the Euro AI has a winter storm with some snow even in DFW

Sometimes the op runs don't mean anything

If we can get the well advertised trough around the 11th to dig and come in at the right strength/trajectory we could end up with a winterstorm out of it. Heights look to be cold enough to support it, the moisture availability is in question though. Something to watch.

[Stratton23]

12z Euro looks good! Gets close to a winter storm setup on the 11th

[Brent]

The Euro snow maps appear to have a snowstorm

How about them op runs now

[wxman22]

12Z Euro

[cajungal]

12Z Euro
https://i.ibb.co/GvfyFLK1/6index.png
https://i.ibb.co/fVPZ8frF/inedex.png
https://i.ibb.co/39KRJkJp/indexe.png

Wish us in SE Louisiana would get some snow. Jan 2025 will never be beat though and would just be happy with a dusting. Or anything to get us away from 80 degrees yuck

[bubba hotep]

Hey, Euro! For once, stop sucking in the longer range, lock on to a storm, and keep it. Thanks in advance.

[txtwister78]

12z Euro looks good! Gets close to a winter storm setup on the 11th

Yeah but its ensemble doesn't yet and to me that's more valuable in terms of model consistency as we wait moving beyond just one run of a deterministic.

As for the 12z op run, not a lot of cold air to work with/tap into so this would be one of those borderline mostly elevation driven events with the aid of a colder pocket of air in the mid to upper levels courtesy of the ULL. We've seen these before look "good" on accumulation and precip maps but devil is always in the details with these borderline events.

But hey something to track at least.

[Gotwood]

Hey, Euro! For once, stop sucking in the longer range, lock on to a storm, and keep it. Thanks in advance.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2026010312/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Go ahead and lock this in since it gives the lowest snow totals to my area.

[Gotwood]

12z Euro looks good! Gets close to a winter storm setup on the 11th

Yeah but its ensemble doesn't yet and to me that's more valuable in terms of model consistency as we wait moving beyond just one run of a deterministic.

As for the 12z op run, not a lot of cold air to work with/tap into so this would be one of those borderline mostly elevation driven events with the aid of a colder pocket of air in the mid to upper levels courtesy of the ULL. We've seen these before look "good" on accumulation and precip maps but devil is always in the details with these borderline events.

But hey something to track at least.

I for sure want snow but we need rain pretty bad at this point so I’ll take a cold rain.

[JayDT]

Happy New Year to my favorite winter weather board, it's been awhile mainly due to the most dreadful start to winter I can ever remember! But fear no more, WINTER IS COMING! The ENS members are finally showing the look we want to see end of week 2....could be a really potent Arctic Outbreak, with the door to brutal Alaskan Air finally opening up, heading down the spine of the Rockies mid-month!

Cheers to the New Year and hopefully, something more enlightening for all of us weather nerds to discuss on here in the weeks to come!

okay well now i’m definitely back been checking in every few days, but its good to see that there might be more to track and talk about..

[TomballEd]

12z Euro looks good! Gets close to a winter storm setup on the 11th

Yeah but its ensemble doesn't yet and to me that's more valuable in terms of model consistency as we wait moving beyond just one run of a deterministic.

As for the 12z op run, not a lot of cold air to work with/tap into so this would be one of those borderline mostly elevation driven events with the aid of a colder pocket of air in the mid to upper levels courtesy of the ULL. We've seen these before look "good" on accumulation and precip maps but devil is always in the details with these borderline events.

But hey something to track at least.

Borderline nature suggested by freezing/frozen North of heaviest snow, as if dynamics with the mid-level feature is driving this more than the coolness of the air mass. 10 days out on an op is nice but will the ensembles support it. Nothing IMBY, we definitely need the rain but if it is rain I'd prefer temps over 60F.

[txtwister78]

12z Euro looks good! Gets close to a winter storm setup on the 11th

Yeah but its ensemble doesn't yet and to me that's more valuable in terms of model consistency as we wait moving beyond just one run of a deterministic.

As for the 12z op run, not a lot of cold air to work with/tap into so this would be one of those borderline mostly elevation driven events with the aid of a colder pocket of air in the mid to upper levels courtesy of the ULL. We've seen these before look "good" on accumulation and precip maps but devil is always in the details with these borderline events.

But hey something to track at least.

Borderline nature suggested by freezing/frozen North of heaviest snow, as if dynamics with the mid-level feature is driving this more than the coolness of the air mass. 10 days out on an op is nice but will the ensembles support it. Nothing IMBY, we definitely need the rain but if it is rain I'd prefer temps over 60F.

That's exactly what "would" be driving this. Clearly dynamic driven which is to say good luck with that particular scenario verifying this far out to your point.

Nice to see the active southern jet kicking in on all models however regardless because I'll take the rain.

[TomballEd]

Yeah but its ensemble doesn't yet and to me that's more valuable in terms of model consistency as we wait moving beyond just one run of a deterministic.

As for the 12z op run, not a lot of cold air to work with/tap into so this would be one of those borderline mostly elevation driven events with the aid of a colder pocket of air in the mid to upper levels courtesy of the ULL. We've seen these before look "good" on accumulation and precip maps but devil is always in the details with these borderline events.

But hey something to track at least.

Borderline nature suggested by freezing/frozen North of heaviest snow, as if dynamics with the mid-level feature is driving this more than the coolness of the air mass. 10 days out on an op is nice but will the ensembles support it. Nothing IMBY, we definitely need the rain but if it is rain I'd prefer temps over 60F.

That's exactly what "would" be driving this. Clearly dynamic driven which is to say good luck with that particular scenario verifying this far out to your point.

Nice to see the active southern jet kicking in on all models however regardless because I'll take the rain.

Of course I'll take the rain. Just if it isn't frozen, I'd as soon as it be rain and in the 60sF. GFS ensemble rainfall locally does pick up just after 10 days.