Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[attallaman]

From Abrams and Bettes Twitter page, a map of forecasted snow for the deep south.

http://tweetphoto.com/11027610

[IvanSurvivor]

Just heard on local weather that the "snow line" has pulled north of the Pensacola area and will be in southern Alabama. Have the models changed...is the low not going to be as far south of us?

[Stormcenter]

That's news to me but who knows.

Just heard on local weather that the "snow line" has pulled north of the Pensacola area and will be in southern Alabama. Have the models changed...is the low not going to be as far south of us?

[IvanSurvivor]

Sometimes our local mets just make stuff up! U just never know around here.

[Sabanic]

Nothing like that being said here. Actually just the opposite. Considering yesterday all local media were saying we would be lucky to see a flake, they are now saying we could see anywhere between 1-4 inches.

[IvanSurvivor]

Maybe I should just watch one of our "other" local weather channels. I won't mention which one I was watching, but if you're from around here, you can probably figure it out.

[SunnyThoughts]

snippet from 5:30 this am



SIGNIFICANT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
MOBILE METRO AREA TO CRESTVIEW FLORIDA...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND
HEAVY IN NATURE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES>

[MGC]

My forecast now states little or no accumulation. Things could change as the exact track of the low in unknown.....MGC

[Ivanhater]

Looks like we will see snow like we have not seen in a long time tomorrow...wow

12z NAM..That is heavy snow folks for Mobile and Pensacola!

[SunnyThoughts]

Considering the NWS has those of us even along the COAST of Fla at 1 - 3 inches ...I wonder why we aren't under at least a winter weather advisory..."shrug" oh well, maybe they can't bring themselves to do that and then have NO snow at all lol

[IvanSurvivor]

Wouldn't be any different than hurricane season around here! Wait till the last minute to start ringing the alarm...

It's very hard to read this forum and then go watch a television forecast...local or national. I get more information here than anywhere else regarding weather!

[Brent]

My forecast:

Friday: Snow, mainly between 9am and 3pm. High near 35. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.

Montgomery:

Friday: Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 34. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches.

[gwynnsh]

Brent,
Would you mind posting one of those maps showing the bottom 1/3 of Alabama or point me to a link? Thanks.

[RNGR]

im not sure if this has been posted, but Birmingham thinks theres a chance for heavier snow in central and north AL:

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS JUNCTURE...BUT I WOULD THROW A FEW SUGGESTIONS INTO THE
THINKING. SINCE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER NORTH...I HAVE
BEEN IMPRESSED WATCHING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS MOST HAVE HELD
STRONG IN KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTH. I WILL SAY THAT
ALL BUT ONE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SHOWS A DEEPER UPPER LOW AND A
LITTLE BETTER PHASE WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER GULF SURFACE LOW...AND HENCE MORE WINTER PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN FACT SOME OF THE TOTALS WERE
SUGGESTING 2 PLUS INCHES NORTH OF BHM AND A 5 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN
THE MGM AREA. SOME ENSEMBLES HAD EVEN MORE. THIS WOULD ALIGN THEM
WITH THE CONSISTENT...YET...NORTHERN OUTLIER CANADIAN GEM MODEL.
HAVEN`T GONE AS FAR AS TO INCLUDE SUCH TOTALS IN THE
FORECAST...NOR WOULD I HAVING GROWN UP IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT I DO
THINK IT IS NOTEWORTHY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW RUNS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. THAT COULD QUICKLY TURN A MINOR TO
MODERATE SNOW EVENT INTO A HEAVY MORE CRIPPLING SNOW. AGAIN...WE
JUST NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...EVEN AS WE GET
INTO THE MESOSCALE DETAILS OF THE EVENT...WHICH ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO
EVEN GUESS AT THIS JUNCTURE. IT IS PROBABLY A BIT ON THE WISHFUL
THINKING SIDE FOR US SNOW LOVERS...BUT THIS KIND OF SETUP IS
ALMOST EXACTLY WHAT YOU WANT FOR A LARGER SCALE SOUTHEASTERN
EVENT.

[SunnyThoughts]

Gwynnsh, I don't have a map, but this might help


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[IvanSurvivor]

This is worse than waiting for something tropical! At least then there's a play by play to follow This is like tick, tock, tick, tock...wait for it....

[LAMOM]

Since I was lurking about to see what the predictions were here and in the mean time while doing so it has started sleeting here. We weren't suppose to get sleet till this evening and according to FB friends it seems to be doing it through out the area north of Baton Rouge. Also, Just got a call from daughter at school in Lafayette..it is sleeting there too. So, it should be interesting to see how this plays out. I think we may have a bit of a mess on the roads around here. Not so sure about any snow accumulations, but rush hour could be nasty this evening.

[Ivanhater]

Here is the QPF from the 12z NAM..that is heavy snow for the gulfcoast..can anyone with snow experience convert the ratio? What would that be for Mobile and Pensacola?

[IvanSurvivor]

Ivan...I like your new avatar, but I do kinda miss the old one

[Jag95]

Here is the QPF from the 12z NAM..that is heavy snow for the gulfcoast..can anyone with snow experience convert the ratio? What would that be for Mobile and Pensacola?

Don't know what the conversion rate will be, but the NWS is forecasting up to 8-9 inches now for northern Mobile and Baldwin counties in some of their zone forecasts.. 1-3 tonight, 3-6. tomorrow.Wow!

Well, OK...that's the high end on a big scale. More like 4-7.