Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Iceresistance]

iPhone weather app with a low of 10 in Dallas next weekend. Wrap ya pipes.

The same one for my area is BELOW ZERO!

[Iceresistance]

A Welcome addition to Pivotal Weather!

Please welcome the ICON model there!


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sje4t.png

[gpsnowman]

A Welcome addition to Pivotal Weather!

Please welcome the ICON model there!

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sje4t.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sje4t.png

You Oklahoma and Arkansas boys needn't worry. Y'all will probably get buried. Nudge that snow line down a 100 miles or so.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW has next Friday temps 48/22 with a high Saturday of 42. Bet that high of 42 will be a stretch.

[Stratton23]

The 18z GFS is getting closer to a winter storm setup over the state fwiw, still having a poor handle on the arctic air though

[Ntxw]

GFS is definitely trying to get there. Just shows you how the 500mb aloft flow it is dependent run to run. Of course we all know the Gorilla isn't going to stop!

[Ntxw]

[gpsnowman]

https://i.imgur.com/9FRPtZj.gif

Wow this changes daily. For the better.

[Ntxw]

https://i.imgur.com/9FRPtZj.gif

Wow this changes daily. For the better.

Suggestive analogs, the purples might go deeper south. There are two regions at play, the northern and western regions of the southern plains will be in the early period and continue. For the southern/southeast region (think Houston and our Louisiana friends) will feel it after the 15th as the cold will likely press further and much east of the divide is below normal.

It's not a one and done blast, a long duration cold period.

[Sambucol]

The 18z GFS is getting closer to a winter storm setup over the state fwiw, still having a poor handle on the arctic air though

Is that all the way down to the coast of Texas?

[Stratton23]

Sambucol the moisture on this run just moves out before the cold air moves in, its very close, shift that system back east some, and many could be in business

[SnowintheFalls]

A Welcome addition to Pivotal Weather!

Please welcome the ICON model there!

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sje4t.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sje4t.png

That helps us on the Red River get in on the action. Southern trends need to continue though.

[Stratton23]

Lol the GFS has snow in the gulf of mexico, thats nuts

[txtwister78]

That's wild.

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1743779180704072187

[Lagreeneyes03]

https://i.imgur.com/BUFtyMz.png

The run doesn't go beyond this but the cold is still pressing.

And that’s without snow cover. Get any of that and this is Feb 2021 territory. Send out the ERCOT Prep Alert!!!!

ERCOT already said there will likely be rolling outages if we see an event like February 2021. There is only so much preparation they can do. If it's extremely cold with no sun and frozen precip, we're gonna have major issues.

I'm out of the state on an extended trip though the month-wondering if I should fly back home for the day and turn off water/prep pipes this week, or would that be premature? (zero cost flight). I took good advice Feb 2021 and saved our house pretty much from any damage.

[Brent]

GFS has all time lows here and they weren't set in 2021

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW

Attention then turns to the end of the week as another system
approaches with rain chances returning to the forecast area
Thursday night and Friday. Guidance is indicating a potential for
a much colder airmass than we`ve seen so far this winter for the
end of the week and into the weekend. Quite a bit of spread
understandably exists with the strength of the Arctic airmass for
the region, but ensembles are currently in fairly decent agreement
that some areas along the Red River and parts of North Texas may
not climb above freezing Saturday. These same spots currently
have a ~10% chance of dropping below 10 degrees Friday night. Cold
weather preparations will likely be necessary for much of North &
Central Texas so continue to check the forecast as we approach
the end of the week.

Steve McCauley

After our widespread rain event on Monday, all eyes will turn to next weekend and especially the following week as the first major blast of Arctic air invades Texas.
Yes, there have been several computer models that have been crying wolf since early December calling for bitterly cold air and snow to hit us, but a statistical analysis of those forecasts always rejected that kind of outlook. However, for the first time this winter season, the statistical analysis of the computer model data does seem to confirm that this time, the computer models are on to something because this one looks real. The blast in north Texas should come in a couple of waves, with the first encounter next weekend, but the coldest and much longer lasting, by far, coming as we start the new school semester during the week of January 15. This one will be watched closely by all the weather nerds to be sure as more specific details emerge as to when and how bad and if any wintry precip locally will accompany the arrival of the North Pole to the central US. (The snows to our north will be impressive)
Stay tuned ...

This will go down hill over the coming week.....

[gpsnowman]

I like a confident Steve McCauley, especially about the second wave near the 15th.

[rwfromkansas]

I am going to have to get new faucet covers.

I really hope to use the ice melt and snow shovel I bought on Amazon years ago. lol.

On Steve when he’s confident that’s a big deal…

His stat method is very conservative.

[txtwister78]

My guess is you're going to see an increase in chatter from your local mets on Monday regarding this upcoming pattern. That will undoubtedly get the attention of state officials as we get closer to the target period. My understanding is ERCOT has a meteorologist on staff that no doubt is seeing what we're seeing.

I think we can all agree at this point that arctic air is coming and it may very well be a severe period of sustained cold for several days. While most are reluctant to compare every arctic weather event to that of the 2021 nightmare for obvious reason, I do think what's being shown by all models in terms of the magnitude of the cold merits some cause for concern.

In terms of the grid, we all remember how close we were in the summer (23) as a result of the unprecedented and relentless heat that many areas across the state experienced. What saved us from rolling outages then was solar and wind. That won't be the case obviously if you get overcast conditions or worse wintry precipitation to fall as South Texas Storms mentioned and as a result limits those energy resources when demand is high/critical.

In terms of preparation, I think everyone should have a plan for the worst-case scenario anyway when it comes to weather in your backyard and so my two cents of advice would get to the store early this week to buy whatever you need (pipe covers etc) as a precaution before the masses begin to realize what may be on the way and supplies then become an issue.

I continue to think you're going to see a gradual shift south in terms of wintry precip as operational models trend colder and faster further south.