Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

Ill take some rain, but definitely not as interesting as the frozen stuff in my opinion lol

[Stratton23]

Though at this point an active STJ is something i cant complain , rather have rain than hot and dry and mid 80’s, no thank you!

[wxman57]

Something just doesn't look right with that 12Z EC run. I notice the GFS, CMC, and Euro all have a different upper-air pattern around the 12th-14th. Quite a bit of run-to-run differences beyond the 9th.

[Brent]

Im still very concerned about how dry it's been. Honestly I know everyone wants snow but I just want widespread rain at this point. It's gonna be ugly if we don't

I hope the models are right about the active pattern. We can worry about the snow once we get the moisture back

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Ive noticed that if things don't get interesting soon, might have the lowest pages on record.

[Brent]

The GFS almost snows here Friday lol

Also it had a big winter storm at the end of the run

Things are already getting more interesting. It was 87 last Saturday

[Harp.1]

Ive noticed that if things don't get interesting soon, might have the lowest pages on record.

Yeah, this is about as boring and depressing as it gets….

[txtwister78]

Ive noticed that if things don't get interesting soon, might have the lowest pages on record.

Yeah if the MJO gets into phase 6 then you may very well get that because that's basically a torch phase.

Our winter clock is ticking now that we're into January. Still think we have a window for some cold/active weather but mentioned yesterday with the MJO hanging out in the null phase that was a big question mark for the long range and with today's run pointing toward entering phase 6 by mid month it appears, man that's not the signal you want to see if you're rooting for a cold January.

[Stratton23]

Txtwister78 While phase 6 would suck, Id argue It wouldnt be the end of the world just yet, even if it goes into phase 6, after looking at some past winters, i pulled up january 2014 as an example where we had a slow rotation into phase 6, but then it moved back into 8/1 in february, and february - into march ended up being quite the run, also runs show the MJO briefly going into 6 before heading back torwards 7/8, if we get to february though and it starts hanging out in 6 more, then i think we are cooked, but considering how poor models have been this winter, im not even going to try to figure out what weather a month away will bring lol

[Stratton23]

But this has been a strange winter so far in regards to the MJO, i think over the last 25 years we have had maybe 4-5 winters where the MJO is just stuck in the null phase for this long , it just doesnt happen that often, and im not really sure why its still stuck, just looks like a mess trying to forecast what the MJO is going to do when the convective signals keep getting killed off

[txtwister78]

Txtwister78 While phase 6 would suck, Id argue It wouldnt be the end of the world just yet, even if it goes into phase 6, after looking at some past winters, i pulled up january 2014 as an example where we had a slow rotation into phase 6, but then it moved back into 8/1 in february, and february - into march ended up being quite the run, also runs show the MJO briefly going into 6 before heading back torwards 7/8, if we get to february though and it starts hanging out in 6 more, then i think we are cooked, but considering how poor models have been this winter, im not even going to try to figure out what weather a month away will bring lol

Oh definitely not saying winter is done yet regardless but phase 6 is torch for much of the country and yes we "hope" it moves out of that quickly but no guarantees it does. 7 isnt great either. Just keeping it a buck. If I'm rooting for cold/winter weather I'd much rather it be headed into 8 and 1 two weeks from now as opposed to the other way around (headed into warmer phases) in the heart of winter.

February obviously a different month but at that point your clock really is ticking and the goal post can only move so much before our window in the south completely closes. That's the risk the longer this warm pattern hangs around.

Heck for us down here just getting the right teleconnections aligned is tough enough which we may still get here soon and I say that because we've really yet to experience a true arctic outbreak statewide. We shall see.

[Ralph's Weather]

February and March are our winter weather months with the random December mixed in. We are not done with with winter precip chances until after spring break and occasionally even later than that. January is typically pretty dead so I'm not super concerned yet.

[Brent]

The EPS still has a signal here around the 12th and the GFS was really close last night

I don't see what the panic is about either. But you gotta remember down on the coast too it's a lot harder to snow anyway even in a perfect pattern. Like it's amazing it even happened last year and yeah it's probably not happening again anytime soon unfortunately. I mean there's always hope but I'm just saying

[HockeyTx82]

The EPS still has a signal here around the 12th and the GFS was really close last night

I don't see what the panic is about either. But you gotta remember down on the coast too it's a lot harder to snow anyway

I think the panic is we are not seeing clown maps for snow or pipe busting cold. The vast majority of the population don't look ahead or care about the weather like we do, so when you live in a echo chamber anything but snow measured in feet or cold below 0 is panic.

Unless you are wxman57 and warm temps are your thing

[Brent]

The EPS still has a signal here around the 12th and the GFS was really close last night

I don't see what the panic is about either. But you gotta remember down on the coast too it's a lot harder to snow anyway

I think the panic is we are not seeing clown maps for snow or pipe busting cold. The vast majority of the population don't look ahead or care about the weather like we do, so when you live in a echo chamber anything but snow measured in feet or cold below 0 is panic.

Unless you are wxman57 and warm temps are your thing

That's just it there's been clown snow maps from both the GFS and Euro since yesterday

No they haven't snowed on the coast but like I said that's probably not happening again anytime soon anyway

And yeah we're probably not gonna have bone dry Arctic air

[wxman22]

February and March are our winter weather months with the random December mixed in. We are not done with with winter precip chances until after spring break and occasionally even later than that. January is typically pretty dead so I'm not super concerned yet.

Yep i would say about mid March is when the door closes for wintry precip most years with a few exceptions of course. Though the Panhandle can get winter storms well into April sometimes.There's even been a couple of events that have occurred in May believe it or not.

[Ntxw]

The next 5-7 days (this week) looks above to much above normal temperatures, a chance of rain late in the week. Then above normal gradually coming down to slightly above to near normal but that's closer to 10 days out.

Currently suffering from worst reaction to cedar fever I've felt in years so the coming rain, hopefully, is welcome.

[Brent]

February and March are our winter weather months with the random December mixed in. We are not done with with winter precip chances until after spring break and occasionally even later than that. January is typically pretty dead so I'm not super concerned yet.

Yep i would say about mid March is when the door closes for wintry precip most years with a few exceptions of course. Though the Panhandle can get winter storms well into April sometimes.There's even been a couple of events that have occurred in May believe it or not.

Speaking of May I still can't believe Tulsa reported snow in the same month as Moore and El Reno

It's the only occurrence here I think. Last real snow is April 12th I think

We got a long way to go up here but I do hope we get some rain at least to wash away this whatever is causing allergies soon

[bubba hotep]

The next 5-7 days (this week) looks above to much above normal temperatures, a chance of rain late in the week. Then above normal gradually coming down to slightly above to near normal but that's closer to 10 days out.

Currently suffering from worst reaction to cedar fever I've felt in years so the coming rain, hopefully, is welcome.

Ma Nature is trying to run the clock out on this winter for the Southern Plains. Ensembles now extend into the 2nd half of January, and not really seeing anything to get excited about, especially with the trend so far this winter to keep pushing favorable looks farther out in model land.

[Ntxw]

Guidance continues to struggle with the Alaska region. As the days draw closer troughing continues to win out up there. It effectively reinforces the stubborn warm ridge over the region. When will it actually change?