Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

Wow...I had a feeling that this winter would be the one where the Gulfcoast would see snow..but not this much!

[SunnyThoughts]

ALZ063-064-FLZ001-003-005-111930-
/O.EXA.KMOB.WS.A.0001.100212T0600Z-100213T0000Z/
LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
INLAND OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOBILE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...
DAPHNE...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...JAY
525 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.


well I guess there are parts of Fla under the watch... just a little farther north of the coast.

[Ivanhater]

ALZ063-064-FLZ001-003-005-111930-
/O.EXA.KMOB.WS.A.0001.100212T0600Z-100213T0000Z/
LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
INLAND OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOBILE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...
DAPHNE...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...JAY
525 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.


well I guess there are parts of Fla under the watch... just a little farther north of the coast.

It will likely be extended to the coast in the afternoon package.

[RNGR]

Here is the QPF from the 12z NAM..that is heavy snow for the gulfcoast..can anyone with snow experience convert the ratio? What would that be for Mobile and Pensacola?

Well, if it were to fall as all snow, it looks like it could be anywhere between 6-10 inches. but i think the heaviest precip will fall as a rain/sleet mix. looking at the thickness charts:

looks like the highest rates of precip fall before the air is cold enough for all snow..


but the air quickly cools before the precip ends and it looks like there will be about 2-5 inches that fall and accumulate. notice that because the thickness values look right im going to believe the snow forecast for the coast. possibly accumulating on the beach.

[Ivanhater]

Thanks RGNR. I have a feeling though that if the precip starts the fall earlier, which it looks like it is doing to our west, that will cause more diabolic cooling for our area.. Also, with the heavy precip falling in our area, that should cause cooling at a faster rate?

[Ivanhater]

New 12z NAM snowfall output...Parts of Mobile and NW Florida, approaching 5 to 6 inches!

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=MOB

[Brent]

Wow...

[RNGR]

48hr total precip 12z GFS
looks like snowfall could be higher than forecast in N AL and GA, especially because we are likely to see all snow with higher ratios.

[Brent]

48hr total precip 12z GFS
looks like snowfall could be higher than forecast in N AL and GA, especially because we are likely to see all snow with higher ratios.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_048l.gif

What are you thinking up this way? I'm thinking widespread amounts over 3 inches below I-20, Birmingham and Atlanta might even approach that. Shifted way north. Somewhere around Montgomery/Columbus IMO may top 6 inches. This is getting close to being a crippling snowstorm.

[RNGR]

48hr total precip 12z GFS
looks like snowfall could be higher than forecast in N AL and GA, especially because we are likely to see all snow with higher ratios.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_048l.gif

What are you thinking up this way? I'm thinking widespread amounts over 3 inches below I-20, Birmingham and Atlanta might even approach that. Shifted way north. Somewhere around Montgomery/Columbus IMO may top 6 inches. This is getting close to being a crippling snowstorm.

i think 2-5 inches cept for the very northern counties.
btw..... haha more snow for everyone including the coast on monday:

[IvanSurvivor]

48hr total precip 12z GFS
looks like snowfall could be higher than forecast in N AL and GA, especially because we are likely to see all snow with higher ratios.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_048l.gif

What are you thinking up this way? I'm thinking widespread amounts over 3 inches below I-20, Birmingham and Atlanta might even approach that. Shifted way north. Somewhere around Montgomery/Columbus IMO may top 6 inches. This is getting close to being a crippling snowstorm.

i think 2-5 inches cept for the very northern counties.
btw..... haha more snow for everyone including the coast on monday:

The Gulf Coast?

[RNGR]

yeah

[IvanSurvivor]

I beeeelieve that may be the craziest thing I've heard all day, but it's still early! Has that ever happened around here before?

[Ivanhater]

Just looking over the NAM snowfall output..you can really tell where the strong snow band sets up. Starts around Mobile then crossing into NW Florida and extreme southern Alabama, that looks like the sweet spot according to the NAM...

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=MOB

[RNGR]

12z GFS snow depth:
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=02&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=12&fhour=42&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

depth is whats on the ground, more may fall but the GFS is expecting no more than 4-6 to accumulate

[Pearl River]

They have changed the overnight accumulation here in Pearl River from 1-2 inches to under an inch. Oh well

[Sabanic]

Just looking over the NAM snowfall output..you can really tell where the strong snow band sets up. Starts around Mobile then crossing into NW Florida and extreme southern Alabama, that looks like the sweet spot according to the NAM...

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=MOB

And if that transpires Mobile will go into lockdown Ha Ha

[RNGR]

They have changed the overnight accumulation here in Pearl River from 1-2 inches to under an inch. Oh well

Actually looks like NWS forecasting 2-5 if im reading this right.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Pearl+River&state=LA&site=LIX&textField1=30.3722&textField2=-89.748

[RNGR]

FFC update:

000
FXUS62 KFFC 111531
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1031 AM EST THU FEB 11 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD WINTER STORM WATCH TO SW COUNTIES WHERE HIGHEST
PRECIP EXPECTED. TWEAKED TEMP AND WX GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
THINKING. 12Z MODELS COMING IN AND SHOWING A MORE DISTURBING
SCENARIO THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF OVERALL AND SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS I-20
INTO ATLANTA METRO DURING THE MORNING. YOU CAN ALSO SEE THIS
SCENARIO WITH THE 06Z GFS. WHILE TOTAL QPF IN THIS BAND REMAINS
0.10-0.25 INCHES...A 10 OR 12 TO 1 SNOW RATIO SUPPORTS WARNING
CRITERIA /GREATER THAN 2 INCHES/ SNOW OVER AREAS SOUTH OF ROME TO
GAINESVILLE LINE. FAR SOUTH COUNTIES / SOUTH OF AMERICUS TO
WASHINGTON LINE/ MAY STAY IN MID 30S IF NAM IS RIGHT DECREASING
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL.

WILL BE WAITING FOR 12Z GFS AND HPC WINTER WX GRIDS BEFORE
PROCEDING WITH FURTHER GRID UPDATES.

SNELSON

[Pearl River]

Yeah...they changed it again. I'll take anything . We missed out in December.