Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Brandon8181]

Temperature continuing to cool near 39 now with a very very light breeze. No precip

[HockeyTx82]

This has got to be the most erratic storm I have ever seen for the north Texas. You have rain, sleet, snow reports all around each other. And of course the NAM vs GFS thing...

I'm debating on whether to go to sleep and be surprised in the morning or being awake through the "surgery" so to speak.

I say just call it a night, you wont miss much between now and morning I don't think. I'll probably stay up for the first few frames of the NAM in about an hour, if it folds, I give.

You can't go to bed, you need to stay up and get your new graphic of the radar. Keep the faith!

[Ntxw]

If it makes you guys feel any better, the recent run of the RUC does what the NAM had in about 12 hours. Fully closes the low swinging up from SE Texas. 0c is right underneath/behind that low overhead.

[serenata09]

If it makes you guys feel any better, the recent run of the RUC does what the NAM had in about 12 hours. Fully closes the low swinging up up from SE Texas. 0c is right underneath/behind that low overhead.

If I remember correctly from last winter, is the RUC one of the more dependable models in the short term?

[iorange55]

If it makes you guys feel any better, the recent run of the RUC does what the NAM had in about 12 hours. Fully closes the low swinging up up from SE Texas. 0c is right underneath/behind that low overhead.

It's two against one now! 15 inches here we come.

[Ntxw]

If it makes you guys feel any better, the recent run of the RUC does what the NAM had in about 12 hours. Fully closes the low swinging up up from SE Texas. 0c is right underneath/behind that low overhead.

If I remember correctly from last winter, is the RUC one of the more dependable models in the short term?

The RUC is better as things are happening. It has it's flaws but generally out beats the globals in the 12-24 hour frame.

[serenata09]

If it makes you guys feel any better, the recent run of the RUC does what the NAM had in about 12 hours. Fully closes the low swinging up up from SE Texas. 0c is right underneath/behind that low overhead.

If I remember correctly from last winter, is the RUC one of the more dependable models in the short term?

The RUC is better as things are happening. It has it's flaws but generally out beats the globals in the 12-24 hour frame.

Hmm...I like the sound of that!

[Ntxw]

If it makes you guys feel any better, the recent run of the RUC does what the NAM had in about 12 hours. Fully closes the low swinging up up from SE Texas. 0c is right underneath/behind that low overhead.

It's two against one now! 15 inches here we come.

Catch is, most of the precip looks already done.

[iorange55]

If it makes you guys feel any better, the recent run of the RUC does what the NAM had in about 12 hours. Fully closes the low swinging up up from SE Texas. 0c is right underneath/behind that low overhead.

It's two against one now! 15 inches here we come.

Catch is, most of the precip looks already done.

So, it's two against one but one of the two has his hands tied behind him.

[Ntxw]

So, it's two against one but one of the two has his hands tied behind him.

Optimism 2, twisterdata only goes out to 12hrs for the RUC so I can't see reflectivity. RUC only shows a few shades of green and only ever uses two lol. So the light stuff might actually be heavy.

[DonWrk]

I'm not liking the look of the radar so I'm going to sleep. Waking up 4:30 hoping to be surprised.

[txtiff]

Just had some normal sized snow flakes here but they were very scarce. Saw some nice lightning in the distance to the southwest also lol.

Thunder Snow????

[Ntxw]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.AVIATION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY...HILL COUNTRY
AND THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
EXPAND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND REACH ALL TAF SITES BY 8Z OR 9Z.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE LOWER PORTION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS SOME OF THE PRECIP EVAPORATES. EXPECT RAIN TO MIX
WITH SNOW/SLEET BEFORE SUNRISE AT THE METRO TAF SITES AND CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP IN WACO SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN FROM BEFORE
SUNRISE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
CEILINGS QUICKLY LOWERING WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS FROM AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

AN EAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
7 AND 13 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

Alright so after in depth thought about the GFS, I am inclined to throw it out. It hardly has any snow for Texarkana, or MS, or AL, or GA. While the Canadian/Ukmet/Euro all have decent snows in those other areas too at least, so it seems kind of fishy.

[DonWrk]

Just had some normal sized snow flakes here but they were very scarce. Saw some nice lightning in the distance to the southwest also lol.

Thunder Snow????

Never heard the thunder but the lightning strikes were quite bright.

[txtiff]

Just had some normal sized snow flakes here but they were very scarce. Saw some nice lightning in the distance to the southwest also lol.

Thunder Snow????

Never heard the thunder but the lightning strikes were quite bright.

How awesome would that be???

[iorange55]

Alright so after in depth thought about the GFS, I am inclined to throw it out. It hardly has any snow for Texarkana, or MS, or AL, or GA. While the Canadian/Ukmet/Euro all have decent snows in those other areas too at least, so it seems kind of fishy.

You know I was kind of thinking that too, but one could also say the same about the NAM predicting 15 inches here. I think the best is to blend them all and if you do our totals are probably a lot, a lot less the NAM but still better than the latest GFS run.

[Ntxw]

You know I kind of think that too, but one could also say the same about the NAM predicting 15 inches here. I think the best is to blend them all and if you do our totals are probably a lot, a lot less the NAM but still better than the latest GFS run.

The RUC is still trending, latest run is even more aggressive with the cold and precip together. The precip shield we see right now is not the stuff, more will build back as the low kicks out from the big bend region. Once the new area starts bending backwards, that's the big dog when the low cuts off some time early morning.

Each run has trended a stronger cut off low. 552dm

[iorange55]

The RUC is still trending, latest run is even more aggressive with the cold and precip together. The precip shield we see right now is not the stuff, more will build back as the low kicks out from the big bend region. Once the new area starts bending backwards, that's the big dog when the low cuts off some time early morning.

Each run has trended a stronger cut off low. 552dm

It's just weird that the GFS could just about completely miss on that. I should really stop thinking too much and just see if it snows or not.

[ludosc]

light rain falling just west of downtown ftw...no mix of anything yet...does feel colder now than it did a hour ago though...

[MSUDawg]

Just watched tonight's forecast video from WFAA...and he was pointing out the most important part of the snow accumulation totals will be how many thunderstorms get created in the southern part of the state...saying it would keep the moisture from flowing up to the cold here in the North texas. Here's to no blocking from the southern storms...bring on big numbers!!!
He also brought up a new weather term I had never heard of... "Graupel" interesting..have to read up more on the differences in sleet/Graupel/freezing rain.