Texas Winter 2019-2020

Winter Weather Discussion

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TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1441 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:33 pm

Also at 0z there was certainly VBV showing up between 1-2 Kilometers on the LCH Hodograph

Image

The critical angle was also fairly low as well. There certainly needs to be more research on VBV in the lowest 3 kilometers of the atmosphere. In the one and only study that was done only one example had an inflection point below 3 Kilometers and that one case ended up being the one where supercell development wasn't sustained. However, that's an extremely poor sample sized and I'd love to see at least that study redone with more cases with VBV in the lower atmosphere.

By 6z VBV was gone, but I believe the QLCS was fairly close by that point and due the atmosphere being charged up the squall was able to intensify in southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Again VBV may not have been the reason why discrete cells didn't become a problem, and if it was there were likely other reasons in combination(Though like I said I don't think instability was one of them as evident in that Skew-T) but it certainly didn't help to have it so low in the atmosphere.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1442 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:54 pm

Texas Snow wrote:I want all 280 to all know that even though some beautiful flakes flew, the vast majority of places didn’t even have grass turn white so I declare that this indeed was not the end of the great DFW snow drought (although it was a nice appetizer).

I have spoken :P


Totally agree... I never saw anything worth remembering here

To be fair I was on a snowy vacation and came home at 4am but still :P
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1443 Postby harp » Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:16 pm

….and the GFS once again doesn't remember that it's January....
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1444 Postby Cerlin » Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:47 pm

harp wrote:….and the GFS once again doesn't remember that it's January....

Are the ensembles running warm again? I haven’t been checking anything recently.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1445 Postby harp » Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:51 pm

Cerlin wrote:
harp wrote:….and the GFS once again doesn't remember that it's January....

Are the ensembles running warm again? I haven’t been checking anything recently.

I don't know, maybe someone else will comment on that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1446 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:25 pm

bubba hotep wrote:12z GEFS 5-day mean, that would be a very cold look for everyone east of the Rockies

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2020011112/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png


Wouldn’t this be a dry cold? Just sets up too far east as usual.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1447 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:17 pm

Just think, it's 68 degrees for the kickoff of the Ravens vs Titans game. :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1448 Postby BTAYLOR5021 » Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:03 pm

Yes I agree. Set up is too far east as usual.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1449 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:09 pm

BTAYLOR5021 wrote:Yes I agree. Set up is too far east as usual.


Disagree... when NAO goes negative as forecasted cold anomalies back build
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1450 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:37 pm

GFS looking good for Texas after the 20th.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1451 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:00 am

Where do we sign up

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1452 Postby hriverajr » Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:15 am



Actually that surface high presentation would not work for snow.. unless it was absolutely frigid before the high moved to the east. And really frigid air is normally dry.. so.. no the map makes absolutely no sense.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1453 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:21 am

Subtropical jet.

Still though what we are seeing is the on and off shenanigans of the OPs. Ensembles tells us to look for period of 20-23rd.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1454 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:25 am

0zCMC wants to get in the action too...1050 High coming down :froze:

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1455 Postby harp » Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:35 am

I was just going to post that the CMC shows a somewhat similar solution around the same time frame.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1456 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:45 am

We know the GFS is right because it has snow show up right on my door step and then instantly goes poof lol(The column is quite dry for Louisiana actually, which is exactly what I need for my allergies.)
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1457 Postby harp » Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:51 am

TheProfessor wrote:We know the GFS is right because it has snow show up right on my door step and then instantly goes poof lol(The column is quite dry for Louisiana actually, which is exactly what I need for my allergies.)

Where do you live?
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1458 Postby TropicalTundra » Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:11 am

TWC app also shows a Rain/Snow Mix around that same time. Let’s hope that’s true and GFS as well :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1459 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:35 am

I think the GEFS ensembles have a good handle on this . CMC and even the EURO now are gradually falling in line as time progresses. The GEFS I believe is really forecasting well the MJO pulse , which was forecast to pass the Maritime Continent and reach the Western Pacific by Jan.20. Forecast to be at Phase 4.

I am definitely foreseeing a much colder pattern for much of the Central and Eastern CONUS as we get to the period from January 20- 26.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1460 Postby TropicalTundra » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:54 am

217 guests viewing this thread... Must be from that DFW severe event :raincloud:
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