Texas Winter 2023-2024

[CaptinCrunch]

I like a confident Steve McCauley, especially about the second wave near the 15th.

When Steve starts up the chatter you can cash that check at the bank tomorrow

[Stratton23]

Call me bananas, but I truly believe this has the potential to rival the february 2021 outbreak, i bet we will start to see some really extreme model runs over the next few days

[Itryatgolf]

Call me bananas, but I truly believe this has the potential to rival the february 2021 outbreak, i bet we will start to see some really extreme model runs over the next few days

Not often do you get the trifecta of blocking. You could be right. It will be tough to rival feb 2021 imo

[Brent]

Call me bananas, but I truly believe this has the potential to rival the february 2021 outbreak, i bet we will start to see some really extreme model runs over the next few days

Not often do you get the trifecta of blocking. You could be right. It will be tough to rival feb 2021 imo

I do think it's too early to really say it'll be like 2021 but some mets up here don't feel that way

I will say the EPS mean isn't record cold or anything remotely insane yet anyway. Now whether it gets there or not by Friday remains to be seen

[Harp.1]

Question for you gentlemen: I’m to your east in south Louisiana. In 2021, Texas drew the brunt of the ice box. We received a glancing blow here with a few sleet pellets. Not that big of a deal. Do you think this will be a similar scenario, or will the big chill bleed east? Thanks.

[Ntxw]

Question for you gentlemen: I’m to your east in south Louisiana. In 2021, Texas drew the brunt of the ice box. We received a glancing blow here with a few sleet pellets. Not that big of a deal. Do you think this will be a similar scenario, or will the big chill bleed east? Thanks.

We are in an El Nino, SE ridge isn't dominant in those. It's quite likely to overwhelm the country.

[Harp.1]

Question for you gentlemen: I’m to your east in south Louisiana. In 2021, Texas drew the brunt of the ice box. We received a glancing blow here with a few sleet pellets. Not that big of a deal. Do you think this will be a similar scenario, or will the big chill bleed east? Thanks.

We are in an El Nino, SE ridge isn't dominant in those. It's quite likely to overwhelm the country.

You are correct. I forgot about that SE ridge. Thank you.

[Sambucol]

Call me bananas, but I truly believe this has the potential to rival the february 2021 outbreak, i bet we will start to see some really extreme model runs over the next few days

Agree. I hope everyone prepares now.

[Sambucol]

Question for you gentlemen: I’m to your east in south Louisiana. In 2021, Texas drew the brunt of the ice box. We received a glancing blow here with a few sleet pellets. Not that big of a deal. Do you think this will be a similar scenario, or will the big chill bleed east? Thanks.

We are in an El Nino, SE ridge isn't dominant in those. It's quite likely to overwhelm the country.

That’s concerning for the grids across the country.

[Ghost0321]

Delkus has DFW at almost 60 next Sunday

[CaptinCrunch]

Delkus has DFW at almost 60 next Sunday

Delkus loves his models, even when they are wrong. He's a great guy, have met him a few times, but he lives and dies by those models, he backtracks alot on his winter forecast.

[txtwister78]

Call me bananas, but I truly believe this has the potential to rival the february 2021 outbreak, i bet we will start to see some really extreme model runs over the next few days

Personally, I don't think we're at that point yet thankfully, but to your point it definitely bears watch and what we're seeing via models as I mentioned earlier does get your attention considering the grid issue itself. Keep in mind though so many things had to come together meteorologically to make that particular weather event stand out as one of the worst on record. That's why I'm reluctant to go to it because it's such a high benchmark and for good reason.

It was so widespread as I know everyone recalls (insane cold and several rounds of winter precip) that almost everyone across the state was impacted. The power outages were of course a terrible result of that, but keep in mind we've had other winter weather events as recently as last winter when we dealt with a crippling ice storm across northern SA especially into the Austin metro/Hill Country up to the DFW region that impacted millions as well and so these winter weather events are unique, despite the impacts often being similar when they hit. It's just the Feb 2021 event was so widespread in impact and long in duration and because of that, I personally consider that winter event as a whole (multiple rounds/days of winter precip and intense cold combined together) more like a 100-year flood event. Those are supposed to be rare.

[Harp.1]

It will be interesting to see what tonight’s runs reveal… will the GFS continue to cave to the other models….

[Stratton23]

I should probably clarify my earlier post, I think this arctic outbreak could rival the February 2021 one more so in longevity than super extreme cold ( even though extreme could be on the table) this arctic air looks to be locked in for quite a long stretch

[Ntxw]

I should probably clarify my earlier post, I think this arctic outbreak could rival the February 2021 one more so in longevity than super extreme cold ( even though extreme could be on the table) this arctic air looks to be locked in for quite a long stretch

We will have to wait and see how much cold there is up there. It is January after all. With the right pattern it can really deliver compared to mid February.

[Brent]

Delkus has DFW at almost 60 next Sunday

That sounds better than my forecast there I said it

[Ntxw]

Icon is crazy. Severe cold coming down Rockies. But compared to 12z you can see how the models don't yet know where to put the PV. That is bitter cold surging down.

[Stratton23]

Man that 00z ICON is absolutely brutal

[Brent]

There's a -50 in Montana on the icon

Denver is nearing -30!!

It's 35 here and 0 2 hours away this front depiction reminds me of Christmas last year

[gboudx]

Call me bananas, but I truly believe this has the potential to rival the february 2021 outbreak, i bet we will start to see some really extreme model runs over the next few days

Agree. I hope everyone prepares now.

Days before the Feb 21 outbreak became reality, I got another 1/2 chord of firewood “just in case”. Once the outbreak hit, firewood became very hard to find. With the rolling outages, I was very thankful to have prepared and bought that 1/2 chord because it kept the house from getting too uncomfortable. Right now we have about a 1/4 chord and I’ll probably buy another 1/4 this week if this keeps showing. The point is, buy firewood if you can burn it in your fireplace. Worst case you have leftover firewood.