Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

Im normally optimistic, but now Im kicking the can now, see yall next winter, man i need to start looking at places in Alaska long term, im truely over this record warmth crap even ive spend most of my life here

[Ntxw]

Im normally optimistic, but now Im kicking the can now, see yall next winter, man i need to start looking at places in Alaska long term, im truely over this record warmth crap even ive spend most of my life here

Alaska is experiencing one of it's coldest winters (to date) since at least 2011-2012, December was their coldest since 1980 in some places. Man to be up there!

[Stratton23]

Ntxw and thats why i plan on at least looking at moving their long term lol, but seriously this is getting stupid down here, we should not be seeing consistent mid 80’s even in january, at this point im just hoping we get seasonal weather back at some point, the mosquitoes are back, its awful

[Stratton23]

Looks like more of a classic + TNH/- EPO pattern showing up post january 16th, dont ask me if its going to happen, im just grasping straws at this point, in the hopes that something does happen lol

[Ntxw]

Looks like more of a classic + TNH/- EPO pattern showing up post january 16th, dont ask me if its going to happen, im just grasping straws at this point, in the hopes that something does happen lol

Eventually I'm optimistic we will get a period of +TNH and -EPO, it's just being so slow and pushed back the transition period, old regime lingering longer. Still holding belief it's mid-month, I just thought we would be settled by then but the transition now appears closer to that time frame.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw hopefully! I will say Eric Webb has an interesting post about this, background state has shifted toward between la nina and a more modeki el nino like state, brought up 2013-2014, saying more frequent periods of - EPO/ + TNH through march, we will see, but it is pretty interesting to read

[Gotwood]

Im normally optimistic, but now Im kicking the can now, see yall next winter, man i need to start looking at places in Alaska long term, im truely over this record warmth crap even ive spend most of my life here

I’m right there with you. Texas is too hot and too dry. I’ve been looking at central Tennessee and Montana as potential destinations.

[Stratton23]

I know its the CFS and we all make jokes about it, but its really cold past january 15th lol, at least the current 12z run is

[Ntxw]

I think we are starting to see some better signs of ensembles. The different suites aren't two directions today from each other. MJO is also trending like a move at a decent clip may occur. P7 in a La Nina isnt bad late Jan, get to 8-1-2 into Feb and it will constructively interfere.

[wxman57]

Im normally optimistic, but now Im kicking the can now, see yall next winter, man i need to start looking at places in Alaska long term, im truely over this record warmth crap even ive spend most of my life here

Alaska is experiencing one of it's coldest winters (to date) since at least 2011-2012, December was their coldest since 1980 in some places. Man to be up there!

Cold in Alaska generally equals warm for much of the lower 48. I'm still not seeing any significant pattern change in the next two weeks. Cold front Friday night will drop temps to near climatological norms, but nothing more.

[Cpv17]

Im normally optimistic, but now Im kicking the can now, see yall next winter, man i need to start looking at places in Alaska long term, im truely over this record warmth crap even ive spend most of my life here

Alaska is experiencing one of it's coldest winters (to date) since at least 2011-2012, December was their coldest since 1980 in some places. Man to be up there!

Cold in Alaska generally equals warm for much of the lower 48. I'm still not seeing any significant pattern change in the next two weeks. Cold front Friday night will drop temps to near climatological norms, but nothing more.

We need some rain, I’m personally more concerned about that than cold weather. I’m in a severe drought down here in Wharton County.

[Ntxw]

Alaska is experiencing one of it's coldest winters (to date) since at least 2011-2012, December was their coldest since 1980 in some places. Man to be up there!

Cold in Alaska generally equals warm for much of the lower 48. I'm still not seeing any significant pattern change in the next two weeks. Cold front Friday night will drop temps to near climatological norms, but nothing more.

We need some rain, I’m personally more concerned about that than cold weather. I’m in a severe drought down here in Wharton County.

Yeah we definitely need more rain. Unfortunately the two are often tied together, disturbances that create lift for rain is cold pockets aloft, PVa which this warm ridge is drying out the upper levels is the killer. It has been warm all up and down the atmosphere.

[Ntxw]

The ensembles are in agreement January ~15th heights rise over Alaska. This is probably the next point we need to see verify, if in the coming days it continues and/or improves then we know the second half will be more interesting. Should the guidance reverse this period to lower heights, then we know the recurring background state remains unfavorable and the can gets kicked down the road to the end of the month.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx yup its either do or die lol, but ome thing im noticing on the 18z runs coming out by the GFS/ AI GFS, they have a faster retrogradation of the ridge thats been dominating the western US, now by the 13/14th its starting to shift more into NW canada and off the west us coast, not great yet, but definitely going in the right direction, if this retrogression keeps moving up in time on models, that would give some kore confidence that this blocking pattern is actually going to happen or not

[Golfisnoteasy75]

The ensembles are in agreement January ~15th heights rise over Alaska. This is probably the next point we need to see verify, if in the coming days it continues and/or improves then we know the second half will be more interesting. Should the guidance reverse this period to lower heights, then we know the recurring background state remains unfavorable and the can gets kicked down the road to the end of the month.

Ntxw, I think if the mjo don't go into phase 6, we may be in good shape or do we want it to go into phase 6? I do know things keep getting pushed back, which isn't good. I do hope we see a legit wpo/epo combo if we can get it. Imo, if we had a coherent mjo signal, the models would move a colder pattern up instead of delaying it. Not sure what we actually need to get things rolling in the right direction

[Stratton23]

Blocking looks better on the GFS/ AI GFS, though its far from perfect, better pattern for rain on these runs as well

[Gotwood]

I know its the CFS and we all make jokes about it, but its really cold past january 15th lol, at least the current 12z run is

CFS has been terrible all winter.

[Ntxw]

The ensembles are in agreement January ~15th heights rise over Alaska. This is probably the next point we need to see verify, if in the coming days it continues and/or improves then we know the second half will be more interesting. Should the guidance reverse this period to lower heights, then we know the recurring background state remains unfavorable and the can gets kicked down the road to the end of the month.

Ntxw, I think if the mjo don't go into phase 6, we may be in good shape or do we want it to go into phase 6? I do know things keep getting pushed back, which isn't good. I do hope we see a legit wpo/epo combo if we can get it. Imo, if we had a coherent mjo signal, the models would move a colder pattern up instead of delaying it. Not sure what we actually need to get things rolling in the right direction

We can go into P6, which is warm, as long as it keeps moving along to P7 which is cold this time of year. But yeah a phase 6 still isn't good.



We need actual MJO progression, null middle circle is simply split forcing which the background low freq state (warm P4-6) just recycles due to MC-WPAC warm pool forcing.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

The ensembles are in agreement January ~15th heights rise over Alaska. This is probably the next point we need to see verify, if in the coming days it continues and/or improves then we know the second half will be more interesting. Should the guidance reverse this period to lower heights, then we know the recurring background state remains unfavorable and the can gets kicked down the road to the end of the month.

Ntxw, I think if the mjo don't go into phase 6, we may be in good shape or do we want it to go into phase 6? I do know things keep getting pushed back, which isn't good. I do hope we see a legit wpo/epo combo if we can get it. Imo, if we had a coherent mjo signal, the models would move a colder pattern up instead of delaying it. Not sure what we actually need to get things rolling in the right direction

We can go into P6, which is warm, as long as it keeps moving along to P7 which is cold this time of year. But yeah a phase 6 still isn't good.

https://i.imgur.com/E4ww0ER.png

We need actual MJO progression, null middle circle is simply split forcing which the background low freq state (warm P4-6) just recycles due to MC-WPAC warm pool forcing.

What do you think happens? Moving forward. Be honest lol

[Stratton23]

I mean its hard to say with the MJO being stuck in the null phase for this long, I think it briefly goes into 6 before heading into 7, but then again every day the mjo progression charts are updated with new model runs, so it could look different somewhat tommorow, if it slows into 6 though we are absolutely cooked, though i dont think thats going to happen, feels like its been a lot harder to forecast this winter compared to past ones, just more of a headache really