Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

I hear you, the models have been all over the place and have done complete flip flops. Difficult when some of us are trying to plan for traveling to see family and friends

[southerngale]

Watching the models run to run can drive you mad. I bet none of you will stay off until Monday or Tuesday, though.

[Nederlander]

Thanks for the link ntxw. So to me its looking very cold and dry for texas next week and into the weekend. After the arctic shot from canada, then I guess the setup is ripe for some winter weather if we have some precipitation moving in between Christmas and New Years and even into early January. I guess from what I am gathering, the cold air needs to be in place BEFORE the precip moves in to allow frozen precip to take place.

[wgdade]

12Z ECMWF Shows a very cold Christmas for East Texas. With 850mb temps as cold as -14C. More than likely we would be seeing flurries and snow showers with wrap around moisture. I love the look of the ECMWF, I hate the 12Z GFS, and don't really buy it. Too warm in my opinion. But you know what they say about opinions.....

It's really just -removed- until we get to Monday.

[msstateguy83]

so is the euro really showing double trouble for ok/northern tx? what time frame is it showing? if someone
is in here who knows how to read it accurately? if the euro is saying that we might should look out
i trust it anyday more then i would anyways over the gfs, but i will have time later to look over everything just been busy with some business stuff today,
in and out of meetings all day and didnt have time to look at the models. i also think the gfs was
trending to warm, its one of those things where we likely wont know where we are heading for sure
until monday.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Correct me if i'm wrong but i'm pretty sure i am not . It was the euro that said a strong gulf low was going to develop days ago off the south TX coast and give the gulf coast another round of heavy rains and mid atlantic snow storm. While the GFS was saying no storm and dry conditions for us. Well look what happended. The mid atlantic is getting hammered and along the gulf coast we got another 2-4 inch rainfall event thursday and friday. I think the euro should be closely watched because it seems to be the better model showing the lows developing days ahead of the GFS.

[wxgirl69]

Watching the models run to run can drive you mad. I bet none of you will stay off until Monday or Tuesday, though.

I second that!!!!

[msstateguy83]

i also agree... i think next week has the CHANCE of being huge by just looking at the features setting up
on the euro! i predict that we will see the gfs fall in line over the weekend at the latest by the monday
runs... look out oklahoma & northern tx this one might be big... the low is also shown tracking further south
on the 18z gfs.

[weatherguy425]

a birdie told me that the 18z has also warmed some

[msstateguy83]

as of rightnow i would say on a line from central,wrn missouri into far w,nw arkansas back into ern oklahoma down to around the dallas-fortworth metroplex and points westward including most all of oklahoma, northern, northwestern tx the oklahoma & tx panhandles up into kansas, portions of colorado & new mexico i believe
firmly this 'FUZZY' picture that most are so darn confused about at this point is fixing to become alot clearer my friends in that area i just discribed i feel strongly we will see a *MAJOR* winter storm start to take shape as we head into wednesday - christmas day, accumulations we likely be on the high side we wont even go there rightnow just say an average of above 3-4 inches in most areas, areas of almost blizzard conditions on christmas eve with north winds blowing along and behind the front at near 30-40 mph... ***ANYONE WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN, IAM NOT TRYING TO 'HYPE' THIS OR MAKE THIS A BIGGER DEAL THEN IT IS, THIS HAS THE CHANCE TO BE A MAJOR, MAJOR WINTER STORM EFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS... i will post more over the weekend but i feel strongly this is the most likely outcome of events next week, we will see in the coming days......


EDIT: I would just strongly advise anyone at this point the gfs is MUTE, it has failed us on alot so far, i have my faith, trust in the euro
and we will see but the signs are there if you look @ the upper flow pattern what the gfs is putting out on temps isnt always as we talked
yesterday the place to look for clues... so just everyone hang tight through the weekend becouse i can almost promise we are in for one
hell of a ride next week if you live in n.tx into oklahoma and the other areas mentioned


EDIT 2: ALSO would add this is my own forecast, judgement and is in no way endorsed by storm2k.org
i would simply advise people to watch your local weather on tv and or radio or a noaa weather radio
for the very latest in your area.

[iorange55]

as of rightnow i would say on a line from central,wrn missouri into far w,nw arkansas back into ern oklahoma down to around the dallas-fortworth metroplex and points westward including most all of oklahoma, northern, northwestern tx the oklahoma & tx panhandles up into kansas, portions of colorado & new mexico i believe
firmly this 'FUZZY' picture that most are so darn confused about at this point is fixing to become alot clearer my friends in that area i just discribed i feel strongly we will see a *MAJOR* winter storm start to take shape as we head into wednesday - christmas day, accumulations we likely be on the high side we wont even go there rightnow just say an average of above 3-4 inches in most areas, areas of almost blizzard conditions on christmas eve with north winds blowing along and behind the front at near 30-40 mph... ***ANYONE WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN, IAM NOT TRYING TO 'HYPE' THIS OR MAKE THIS A BIGGER DEAL THEN IT IS, THIS HAS THE CHANCE TO BE A MAJOR, MAJOR WINTER STORM EFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS... i will post more over the weekend but i feel strongly this is the most likely outcome of events next week, we will see in the coming days......


EDIT: I would just strongly advise anyone at this point the gfs is MUTE, it has failed us on alot so far, i have my faith, trust in the euro
and we will see but the signs are there if you look @ the upper flow pattern what the gfs is putting out on temps isnt always as we talked
yesterday the place to look for clues... so just everyone hang tight through the weekend becouse i can almost promise we are in for one
hell of a ride next week if you live in n.tx into oklahoma and the other areas mentioned


EDIT 2: ALSO would add this is my own forecast, judgement and is in no way endorsed by storm2k.org
i would simply advise people to watch your local weather on tv and or radio or a noaa weather radio
for the very latest in your area.

Hmmm I'd really love that, but I don't think there is any way that is going to happen, and i'm not sure what model has indicated such a thing?

[Texas2Florida]

This whole thing is more frustrating than Tropical Casting when I lived in South Florida! And I thought tropical systems were tricky, geez! I can say that last season the EURO models were more on track with GFS with some of the systems.. I"m just sayin'!

[gofrogs]

I think that we may get something out of next week for north texas iam not completeley sure but heck you know that everytime were forcasted to get something we get nothing well this time its the other time around i think were slipping under the radar here a bet but just wait later this weekend thisd forum will be live and abuz with chatter.

[somethingfunny]

I have a dumb question. Shouldn't the Storm2K Disclaimer be required in all forums, not just the tropical weather forums?

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[msstateguy83]

the point is and i will say it till iam blew in the face the gfs is pretty much WORTHLESS
for med range forecasting *about where we are at now* its not good with temps,precip
exc,exc,exc,exc... main thing to look @ is 500 mb flow we still have a very good pattern
flow, looking out on the nam, wrf which go 84 hrs i see a stream of moisture returning
nicely.

put that with the euro & i have a fairly high confidence level so everyone stay calm,
chill out but dont get all excited or disappointed run to run on the gfs becouse thats
not the whole puzzle, we have other areas coming together to..

00z is coming out but iam not even gonna give it my time.. maybe monday for now
the forecast for me is the status quo as i stated for next wk until we get to maybe late
sun into monday then the models will give me a better read out.

everyone have a great weekend

[Ntxw]

you have a good point in that you cannot always look at the surface maps. Portastorm and Srain have said it over and over. Even though the surface features change, the upper pattern in the other heights have not flip flopped and do feature cold and possible precip.

[iorange55]

possible precip from what I've seen off any model is at most a few flurries in far north eastern texas, and into Oklahoma. He's saying 3-4 inches? to me that's a little absurd to say right now, and if you put it out there people are going to get excited, and end up being really disappointed.



Also I know people want to latch on to the latest ECMWF run but that's just one run out of the many the past few days. That's the first time it showed anything like that, so if we're not going to run with one model run that says it'll be really warm, we shouldn't do the same just because it shows something we like. Not till we get better agreement.

[gofrogs]

I dont know dude the ecmwf look good, but well see what the 0z gfs says and see if it come more in line with the ecmwf.

[Ntxw]

possible precip from what I've seen off any model is at most a few flurries in far north eastern texas, and into Oklahoma. He's saying 3-4 inches? to me that's a little absurd to say right now, and if you put it out there people are going to get excited, and end up being really disappointed.



Also I know people want to latch on to the latest ECMWF run but that's just one run out of the many the past few days. That's the first time it showed anything like that, so if we're not going to run with one model run that says it'll be really warm, we shouldn't do the same just because it shows something we like. Not till we get better agreement.

I understand your logic to that. Perhaps he is basing this on his own personal opinion from looking at upper flow return\moisture as he interprets it other than the 850mb. As for the models, they have flipped almost 180 several times so there's no reason to believe they won't now. And yes it's only one EC run, but on track record, in the past many times the euro is the first to latch on these things and the gfs then follows the trend. You very well could be right and it's only a one run fluke. Waiting game

[iorange55]

possible precip from what I've seen off any model is at most a few flurries in far north eastern texas, and into Oklahoma. He's saying 3-4 inches? to me that's a little absurd to say right now, and if you put it out there people are going to get excited, and end up being really disappointed.



Also I know people want to latch on to the latest ECMWF run but that's just one run out of the many the past few days. That's the first time it showed anything like that, so if we're not going to run with one model run that says it'll be really warm, we shouldn't do the same just because it shows something we like. Not till we get better agreement.

I understand your logic to that. Perhaps he is basing this on his own personal opinion from looking at upper flow return\moisture as he interprets it other than the 850mb. As for the models, they have flipped almost 180 several times so there's no reason to believe they won't now. And yes it's only one EC run, but on track record, in the past many times the euro is the first to latch on these things and the gfs then follows the trend. You very well could be right and it's only a one run fluke. Waiting game

Yes, and I'm not saying that the ECMWF run is wrong it might be right, but I just would hate someone who is new here, and reads that, then gets all excited for nothing. So I just think it's best to wait before mentioning stuff like that, thats all.