Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

Yeah, after that it continuously is still snowing with the metroplex region as the sweet spot for it to keep throwing back precip. I'd say nothing will changeover until at least morning, even for the Arklatex, cold rain until the low cuts off.

[Texas2Florida]

From the FTW NWS Facebook Page:

National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
A brief update on the latest forecast situation: The evening model data has come in with quite a bit of spread in how much snow we may get on Sunday. One popular model is forecasting a very heavy snowfall event while the other popular model is forecasting precipitation will fall as all rain. We will be carefully analyzing the latest observations to decide on any watches or warnings by 4 am CST.

[Ntxw]

In visual terms this is the RUC. Don't let the green colors fool you. Darker shade of green is .10-.25 inches of liquid for that hour. If it were snow it's 1-2 inches an hour.

[somethingfunny]

Thank you for your answers regarding the ice probabilities, guys.

The more I look at this the more issues I have with the forecast. It's after 1:00 AM and it's still 45 degrees here in Garland and the urban Dallas area as a whole. That's from 49 degrees when I got home around 9:00 PM. The NWS forecast calls for "a steady temperature around 37" overnight.....how is the temperature going to drop that much within just a few hours, with cloud cover already established? I'm not buying the temperature forecast at all....I think that the changeover won't occur until afternoon here, and we may eventually pick up 1"-2" across most of Dallas.

I did see some lightning flashes off to my northwest though.

(this is an amateur forecast and is not a professional product nor should it be relied upon in lieu of a professional forecast)

[cheezyWXguy]

Thank you for your answers regarding the ice probabilities, guys.

The more I look at this the more issues I have with the forecast. It's after 1:00 AM and it's still 45 degrees here in Garland and the urban Dallas area as a whole. That's from 49 degrees when I got home around 9:00 PM. The NWS forecast calls for "a steady temperature around 37" overnight.....how is the temperature going to drop that much within just a few hours, with cloud cover already established? I'm not buying the temperature forecast at all....I think that the changeover won't occur until afternoon here, and we may eventually pick up 1"-2" across most of Dallas.

I did see some lightning flashes off to my northwest though.

(this is an amateur forecast and is not a professional product nor should it be relied upon in lieu of a professional forecast)

evaporative cooling.

[Ntxw]

Thank you for your answers regarding the ice probabilities, guys.

The more I look at this the more issues I have with the forecast. It's after 1:00 AM and it's still 45 degrees here in Garland and the urban Dallas area as a whole. That's from 49 degrees when I got home around 9:00 PM. The NWS forecast calls for "a steady temperature around 37" overnight.....how is the temperature going to drop that much within just a few hours, with cloud cover already established? I'm not buying the temperature forecast at all....I think that the changeover won't occur until afternoon here, and we may eventually pick up 1"-2" across most of Dallas.

I did see some lightning flashes off to my northwest though.

(this is an amateur forecast and is not a professional product nor should it be relied upon in lieu of a professional forecast)

I feel your concern. But it was never cold enough for the snow here in the first place or ice at the surface (hence it's either heavy snow or heavy rain) . We're all relying on the dynamics of the upper low to cool the atmosphere with the trowel. With cloud cover moving in earlier temps weren't going to fall much anyway.

[somethingfunny]

Thank you for your answers regarding the ice probabilities, guys.

The more I look at this the more issues I have with the forecast. It's after 1:00 AM and it's still 45 degrees here in Garland and the urban Dallas area as a whole. That's from 49 degrees when I got home around 9:00 PM. The NWS forecast calls for "a steady temperature around 37" overnight.....how is the temperature going to drop that much within just a few hours, with cloud cover already established? I'm not buying the temperature forecast at all....I think that the changeover won't occur until afternoon here, and we may eventually pick up 1"-2" across most of Dallas.

I did see some lightning flashes off to my northwest though.

(this is an amateur forecast and is not a professional product nor should it be relied upon in lieu of a professional forecast)

evaporative cooling.

I don't mean to be contrarian, but can evaporative cooling really be responsible for a solid ten degree drop in temperature? Maybe within 12 hours, sure, but by then the storm will be almost gone.

One of the things about last February's storm that I noticed was the NWS was consistently forecasting our low temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than they ended up being over the week prior to the snowstorm. So when I saw the forecast for overnight temps in the upper 30s/low 40s and rain changing over to snow in the mid-morning, I suspected that the temperature forecast would bust low and we'd get snow falling sooner than expected, making higher accumulation totals. I forecasted 3"-6" with some lucky folks getting 8" as opposed to the 1"-3" that the NWS had forecasted....I didn't predict the foot we ended up with but I still counted it as a win. This go around, I'm afraid the same trend is working in the opposite direction.

But we'll see. I hope I get pleasantly surprised

[funster]

From the FTW NWS Facebook Page:

National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
A brief update on the latest forecast situation: The evening model data has come in with quite a bit of spread in how much snow we may get on Sunday. One popular model is forecasting a very heavy snowfall event while the other popular model is forecasting precipitation will fall as all rain. We will be carefully analyzing the latest observations to decide on any watches or warnings by 4 am CST.

Could not really be a tougher forecast for the NWS. They could say we will either get 15 inches or no snow at all based on the computer models, but that probably would not go over well

[Ntxw]

Second area is starting to build associated with the low pressure. If the RUC is right, it's going to bomb out crossing our swern areas as the first batch dies out.

[iorange55]

Second area is starting to build associated with the low pressure. If the RUC is right, it's going to bomb out crossing our swern areas as the first batch dies out.

Very interesting to watch. That is a lot of moisture in play.

[HockeyTx82]

Something is falling outside here in Denton, about one mile east of the UNT campus. Looks to be rain, but the way some of hits the metal on the roof makes me think some small sleet or ice by be falling as well.

[Ntxw]

NAM is running lol, life or death right here

[HockeyTx82]

Check out the 6 hour furture view (push it then hit play). It all turns to Ice/Mix around 5. I wonder what data it is using for this.

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/76201:4

[Ntxw]

NAM starts with snow showing up to our W and NW by hour 9

At 12 DFW and the Red River counties approach 1 inch.

I take the back the drilling comment.

[HockeyTx82]

NAM starts with snow showing up to our W and NW by hour 9

So I am guessing I can go to bed. Looks like the show will wait until during the day tomorrow? What about totals?

[iorange55]

PHEW! Nam still is looking good. Time for a quick nap, I think.

[Ntxw]

Well, NAM gave us the comprimise lol not 15 inches but not 0. About 1 inch lol.

[iorange55]

Well, NAM gave us the comprimise lol not 15 inches but not 0. About 1 inch lol.

It looked so good there for a minute. Whatever. We'll just see later on. Good night/morning folks!

[brewskymc]

Thank you for your answers regarding the ice probabilities, guys.

The more I look at this the more issues I have with the forecast. It's after 1:00 AM and it's still 45 degrees here in Garland and the urban Dallas area as a whole. That's from 49 degrees when I got home around 9:00 PM. The NWS forecast calls for "a steady temperature around 37" overnight.....how is the temperature going to drop that much within just a few hours, with cloud cover already established? I'm not buying the temperature forecast at all....I think that the changeover won't occur until afternoon here, and we may eventually pick up 1"-2" across most of Dallas.

I did see some lightning flashes off to my northwest though.

(this is an amateur forecast and is not a professional product nor should it be relied upon in lieu of a professional forecast)

evaporative cooling.

I don't mean to be contrarian, but can evaporative cooling really be responsible for a solid ten degree drop in temperature? Maybe within 12 hours, sure, but by then the storm will be almost gone.

One of the things about last February's storm that I noticed was the NWS was consistently forecasting our low temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than they ended up being over the week prior to the snowstorm. So when I saw the forecast for overnight temps in the upper 30s/low 40s and rain changing over to snow in the mid-morning, I suspected that the temperature forecast would bust low and we'd get snow falling sooner than expected, making higher accumulation totals. I forecasted 3"-6" with some lucky folks getting 8" as opposed to the 1"-3" that the NWS had forecasted....I didn't predict the foot we ended up with but I still counted it as a win. This go around, I'm afraid the same trend is working in the opposite direction.

But we'll see. I hope I get pleasantly surprised

I'm right there with ya... It seems almost impossible. But, I have seen crazier things. Several years ago, I saw the surface temps drop nearly 10 degrees within a few hours and 15 degrees within 6 hours in similar conditions. It ended up being a sleet storm (2 inches or so)... but it was still cool.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, I'm off to bed too. Hope we all see a surprise in the morning!