Texas Winter 2012-2013

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
BlueIce
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 194
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Sep 01, 2008 10:05 pm
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1461 Postby BlueIce » Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:42 pm

Aaron Tuttle a local Meteorologist is calling it now Major Winter Storm for Oklahoma https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=532270043459094&set=a.127898183896284.17125.127856613900441&type=1&theater.

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Winter Storm Warning: Now that the computer models are able to sample the entire storm system, the precipitation estimates are able to be given with a little more accuracy. This is a primary example of why you don't give snow or ice totals a week in advance, they will always change. Once you get 48 hours out from the event, then we can better estimate the amounts. That said, here goes...

The 4 panel graphic below is a great snapshot in time Christmas Day. The first 3 panels is the model radar reflectivity with the 32 degree line in blue overlaid. Rain that falls east and south of this boundary is just that, rain. The rain that falls along and near this boundary is ice Farther back behind in the colder air it falls as snow(where it turns to a blob of solid red/blue). The last panel is the snow total estimate from the model. According to the scale on the right that reads 20" of snow over OKC. Do I buy that? No. Here's why...

After midnight Monday very light precipitation will start to fall in the form of freezing rain across 2/3 of the state. The SE will remain liquid for now. The freezing rain will get heavier during the early morning hours over C OK up to Tulsa. Right now the freezing rain may not change over to snow until around 10 or 11am in this area. That means at least a good 6-9 hours of freezing rain. Even light freezing rain adds up. So my original forecast from day 1 of half an inch of ice with the potential of more over C OK still looks like a good call. Every model run prior to today was only giving a quarter of an inch of ice before changing over to snow. Quite a difference a day makes. As the freezing line marches south so goes with it the freezing rain across SE OK and N TX. Snow will continue to take over across C/NE OK by noon and for the rest of the afternoon. The storm intensifies across the state as it moves through. The track is still in question believe it or not. This model example I have here has the most northern track right across the I-40 corridor. Other models have the track either across the Red River or N TX. Like I said before, there's a big difference 100 miles can make. If the track does verify farther south, then the higher snow totals seen in this map shifts south a bit and DFW will see an inch or 2 of snow as a result. If it stays north, DFW just gets a dusting of snow. Speaking of snow, the discussion above about ice is why I don't trust the snow totals and the fact that this particular model gets carried away with thunder snow from extreme lift the internal dynamics it creates. Divide by 2 roughly. So does that mean we could see 8-12" of snow over C OK on top of the half inch or so of ice? Yes. Hence a major winter storm.

Now, back to N TX, we will not know the exact position of the freezing rain line until late Monday. Arctic air always plants farther south than the models suggest and they are still holding onto the I-44 corridor as the morning starting position. I have a feeling it will be closer to a line from McAlester to Denton, to Abilene. If so, watch out for morning ice along that boundary as most of the heavier precip for the DFW region will fall before/around daybreak. After that wave moves through, the cold air deepens anyway by noon so whatever falls after that will be a light wintry mix. Just enough to cause slick roads.

One change the models did make that's worth noting. After the storm moves through OK it takes a more northward track through N Arkansas and S MO rather than due east, so the bigger snows have shifted north.

One last note. As the storm system deepens, expect 50 mph winds to develop on the back side creating blizzard like conditions for C and E OK Tuesday afternoon/night. There will also be some power outages due to the ice and wind. With temps staying in the teens on Wednesday and not getting above freezing until next week, this stuff is going to stick around awhile. Not to mention another storm system on Friday that should produce another round of a wintry mix. 'Tis the season! ~Merry Christmas!
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1462 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:57 pm

It looks to me like the NAM is the furthest north of any of the models, and the only one keeping accumulating snows completely north of the red river. Also, I forget when the 12z euro comes out, but im guessing soon?
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22788
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1463 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 23, 2012 1:02 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:It looks to me like the NAM is the furthest north of any of the models, and the only one keeping accumulating snows completely north of the red river. Also, I forget when the 12z euro comes out, but im guessing soon?


It's rolling out now, to 48 hours so far and not much different than 0z except a much stronger shortwave already cutting off over Lubbock
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1464 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Dec 23, 2012 1:03 pm

Ntxw wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:It looks to me like the NAM is the furthest north of any of the models, and the only one keeping accumulating snows completely north of the red river. Also, I forget when the 12z euro comes out, but im guessing soon?


It's rolling out now, to 48 hours so far and not much different than 0z except a much stronger shortwave already cutting off over Lubbock

i would guess thats a good thing for us in dfw, assuming the center tracks to our south, correct?
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22788
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1465 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 23, 2012 1:05 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:i would guess thats a good thing for us in dfw, assuming the center tracks to our south, correct?


The sooner it cuts off the sooner it pulls the thunderstorms back into the trowel. That's been the problem with NAM/GFS cuts it off over Texarkana which is a little late for us.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22788
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#1466 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 23, 2012 1:23 pm

Euro is not as heavy with precip as the 0z run. Snow on it is from I-40 to I-20 with the Red River counties on either side being the bulls-eye, perhaps wxman57 can chime in with snow maps!

Overall it hasn't changed too much, slight shifts by 30-50 miles can mean dry slot or heavy snow
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


GRAYSONCO.WX
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 450
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 4:29 pm
Location: Denison, Texas

Re:

#1467 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Sun Dec 23, 2012 1:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:Euro is not as heavy with precip as the 0z run. Snow on it is from I-40 to I-20 with the Red River counties on either side being the bulls-eye, perhaps wxman57 can chime in with snow maps!

Overall it hasn't changed too much, slight shifts by 30-50 miles can mean dry slot or heavy snow


Luckily it's still a pretty wet run, though! It has taken snowfall accumulations down, though, compared to the 00Z.
0 likes   

GRAYSONCO.WX
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 450
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 4:29 pm
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1468 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Sun Dec 23, 2012 1:41 pm

The GGEM is looking quite nice for north Texas and southern Oklahoma!
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22981
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#1469 Postby wxman57 » Sun Dec 23, 2012 3:08 pm

Ntxw wrote:Euro is not as heavy with precip as the 0z run. Snow on it is from I-40 to I-20 with the Red River counties on either side being the bulls-eye, perhaps wxman57 can chime in with snow maps!

Overall it hasn't changed too much, slight shifts by 30-50 miles can mean dry slot or heavy snow


Have to get some tropical outlooks done for work, but did look at 12Z euro snowfall. It shifted north about 100 miles or so. Shows Dallas-Ft. Worth at the southern edge of a trace of snow now. About 3-6" south-central OK and up to 7-10" in west-central Arkansas.
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1470 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Dec 23, 2012 4:26 pm

Jeff Lindners thoughts:
Powerful upper level storm system will bring widespread impacts to TX Christmas Morning.

Next upper level storm system to affect the state is currently diving down into the western US this morning and will begin to move eastward into TX tomorrow. At the surface low level warm air and moisture advection is underway across the state while to our north a shallow cold front is moving southward. Expect this shallow boundary to reach the area tonight and then stall between I-10 and the coast on Monday. Much more powerful system to be approaching from the west Monday night/ Tuesday AM. Southerly winds will continue to pump moisture into the area today into Monday even as the weak boundary stalls. Not expecting much rainfall in the warm air advection pattern with moisture mainly below 800mb.

Surface boundary begins to lift northward as a warm from late Monday as strong upper level system moves into TX. Do not think the warm front will move rapidly northward with developing rainfall north of the boundary helping to roughly maintain its position in the I-10 to HWY 105 corridor into Tuesday morning. Surface low pressure developing over EC TX early Tuesday will bring a punch of dry air eastward out of central TX in the form of a dry line. Powerful mid level jet will rotate through the base of the trough over the state with shear values on the order of 60kts and building instability in the warm sector south of the warm front between midnight and 1000am Tuesday. Expect numerous thunderstorms to develop after midnight to 300am Tuesday some of which will become severe.

A review of severe weather parameters for early Tuesday morning suggest a highly sheared low level environment with low level winds backed to the SE to ESE near the warm front veering to WSW in the mid levels. Both speed and directional shear will be in place over the area and expect storms that develop near and south of the warm front will have a tornado potential. There is some possibility that storms will go into a line along the advancing dry line during the morning hours with a damaging wind threat. We are still about 40-48 hours from the event and some fine tuning is likely on the warm frontal position and where the greatest severe threat will be found on Tuesday morning.

Note: Such strong storm systems in the winter time in the deep south and after dark can have some significant severe weather and tornadoes. Such tornadoes tend to occur in the early morning hours and result in higher fatalities than spring time tornadoes mainly because they occur when residents are asleep.

Dry line will punch rapidly through the area by noon on Tuesday with a quick drying of the air mass. Strong cold front will lag behind the dry line and cross the area in the late afternoon. Very strong winds will onset once again behind this boundary…although not likely as strong as last Thursday…still could see a few gust to 40mph. Temperatures will tumble from the 60’s/70’s prior to the front quickly into the 40’s behind the front. A band of snow will likely develop over N TX within the comma head portion of the upper level storm system. Some accumulation of snow will be possible from the DFW area NE into OK and AR on Christmas Evening and night. No snow is expected across SE TX as moisture will be scoured out of the area prior to the thermal column being cold enough for snow.

Strong winds Tuesday night and Wednesday morning should keep lows mainly near freezing north of US 59. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to reach 50 degrees under continued cold air advection. Surface high pressure will build over the area Wednesday night with mainly clear skies and light winds. With very low dewpoints (in the 20’s) should see a widespread freeze for all areas except the immediate coast. Even the urban heat areas may see a light freeze this time around. Colder locations could see lows in the mid 20’s for Thursday morning.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook (Monday evening-Tuesday Morning):

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... k_0700.gif
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#1471 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Dec 23, 2012 4:38 pm

Looking ahead as we close 2012 and head to the new year it looks like much of us in Texas are going to get a pretty good shot of Rain :D


12zECMWF Ensembles on the left panel dig a storm system into Arizona and New Mexico by December 31.....This pattern would bring plenty of Pacific Moisture to much of Texas.
Image

12zECMWF Ensembles day 10.
Image

CFSv2 has the Pacific Moisture track right over Texas on Week 2 (Light green shading on the bottom panel)
Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1472 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Dec 23, 2012 4:58 pm

So what's the latest? I feel as if the air has emptied out of the forum. Is it all a bust? What about later on towards New Years Day? Why do I have this bad feeling we will get nothing?

(Try to stay pessimistic that way when we get dumped on it will be a surprise)

So trends are showing a more northern track?

:(
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1473 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Dec 23, 2012 5:19 pm

12z euro was a bit further north, but its still not set in stone yet. DFW NWS issued a new special weather statement that upped the totals to up to 2in north of I20, and 2-4 inches north of a bowie-mckinney-emory line. All in all, I dont think things have changed much. Looks like an event we're going to have to watch until it's actually happening.
0 likes   

User avatar
TexasF6
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 816
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:33 pm
Location: Austin, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1474 Postby TexasF6 » Sun Dec 23, 2012 5:45 pm

The storm is starting its dive SE...it has two vortices....fascinating....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/flash-vis.html

I still want my snow in Austin, TX! (TexasF6<--folds arms very grumpily like he is 7)
:(
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1475 Postby Portastorm » Sun Dec 23, 2012 5:53 pm

TexasF6 wrote:The storm is starting its dive SE...it has two vortices....fascinating....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/flash-vis.html

I still want my snow in Austin, TX! (TexasF6<--folds arms very grumpily like he is 7)
:(


How about hail ... would that suffice?! :wink:
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5853
Age: 59
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1476 Postby Tireman4 » Sun Dec 23, 2012 6:07 pm

[
I still want my snow in Austin, TX! (TexasF6<--folds arms very grumpily like he is 7)
:([/quote]

How about hail ... would that suffice?! :wink:[/quote]

Oh my Porta, oh my....LOL
0 likes   

User avatar
TexasF6
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 816
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:33 pm
Location: Austin, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1477 Postby TexasF6 » Sun Dec 23, 2012 6:08 pm

Yes Porta!!! I will have to hide my truck though.....she doesn't like hail! What do you figure our chances for severe wx are tomorrow? I didn't think we even made the edge of the yellow 15% probs on the outlook? Perhaps a tornado or two?
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1478 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Dec 23, 2012 6:13 pm

TexasF6 wrote:Yes Porta!!! I will have to hide my truck though.....she doesn't like hail! What do you figure our chances for severe wx are tomorrow? I didn't think we even made the edge of the yellow 15% probs on the outlook? Perhaps a tornado or two?

I obviously am not Portastorm or even a PWC met, but last time I saw a map we were in the 15%. As progged there will be a lot of shear due to the winds at different levels coming from different directions?(ie turning in the mid and lower levels)(see Jeff Lindner's email elsewhere in this thread)so it does appear there could be a chance of a few tornadoes even in our area. I hope not!! I would prefer rain and maybe even a stiff breeze, but no tornadoes thank you.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22788
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1479 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 23, 2012 6:18 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:So what's the latest? I feel as if the air has emptied out of the forum. Is it all a bust? What about later on towards New Years Day? Why do I have this bad feeling we will get nothing?

(Try to stay pessimistic that way when we get dumped on it will be a surprise)

So trends are showing a more northern track?

:(


The models are showing weak skill with the New Years event. The PNA is only a few days away from going positive so expect more changes with that storm. It will be even more difficult to track than the Christmas storm because we will have phasing of two systems, one from Canada and another from the Baja. That is likely the storm to precede the aforementioned arctic air mass.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


SaskatchewanScreamer

#1480 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Sun Dec 23, 2012 6:28 pm

Santa and Knecht Ruprecht out for a stroll in front of our house (looking forward to taking a holiday down South)

Image

Knecht Ruprecht (he'll get meaner soon)
Image
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests