Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

I have kept a wary eye out for this weekend, but have yet to see anything. I expect it will be close, maybe like the November event. We would be watching much closer if not for the crazy snow forecasts we had a few days ago for next week.

[TheProfessor]

The SREF has shown a few millimeters of snow for Dallas on Sunday morning, it might be on to something, but I will need a lot more convincing very fast.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

00z NAM has a 1063 HP in Montana and it looks as if the front is close to crossing SE Tx by 12z on Tuesday.

34 degrees in Dallas area according to the model.

[Rgv20]

According to the 0zGFS and GFS-Parallel the Arctic front never makes it to Brownsville...

[Lagreeneyes03]

What do ya'll think about this? A FB post from a Metroplex weather blogger, mentioning winter precip for tomorrow.

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE: 610PM FRI DEC 26 2014 - NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS - DFW METROPLEX - At 6pm a strong cold front was pushing through the Texas panhandle and taking aim at much of Texas. Above the surface an approaching upper level storm system in conjunction with surface and near surface Gulf moisture and the approaching front will combine to produce precipitation across the Metroplex starting around midnight. By 6am Saturday morning precipitation will continue across all of North Central Texas, but 'upslope' (or moisture riding up and over the rapidly moving cold air at the surface will combine with even colder temperatures at higher levels of the atmosphere to produce an area of freezing rain transitioning rapidly to snow. This area wintery precipitation at 6am Saturday morning should be in Northwestern North Texas along a line from East of Childress to South of Lubbock to near Midland. This line will progress East through the day. Very cold temperatures in the 20's will move into the DFW metroplex by Saturday night. The real question becomes how much moisture will overrun and be in place across the metroplex after the sub-freezing temperatures arrive. Due to the upper level make-up of the atmosphere and what is known as a "dendrite zone" It is my opinion we will see some snow across the DFW Metro tomorrow (Saturday) especially in the afternoon afternoon hours just prior to the precipitation ending. The greatest chance of snow will be along and Northwest of a Sherman to DFW Airport to Fort Worth to Stephenville line. This could rapidly change with the latest computer model data due in the next few hours. I will be watching this closely and issue updates as needed later tonight and early Saturday morning, THIS IS NOT AN NWS FORECAST.

Who is this?

His name is John Austin Basham he's got a FB page,

[somethingfunny]

Sounds like a bunch of bunk to me about any snow with this weekend's system. Maybe some flurries mixing in out by Wichita Falls but nothing sticking, and nothing at all down here in the metro or anywhere southeast of Bowie I would say.

[orangeblood]

Sounds like a bunch of bunk to me about any snow with this weekend's system. Maybe some flurries mixing in out by Wichita Falls but nothing sticking, and nothing at all down here in the metro or anywhere southeast of Bowie I would say.

According to the latest GFS P, something more than a trace is moving through DFW on Sunday morning....

[Ralph's Weather]

I could definitely see a similar situation to November with some light accumulations.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

So reading through the morning AFD and forecast package, KADS ( Addison) does not see the freezing mark over the next 7 days. More model hugging?

[Ralph's Weather]

The 06Z PGFS is getting closer to what we expect at least in the upper atmosphere. It shows the upper low approaching by the 1st. The GFS is still too slow and the Euro is way slow. Still see no reason to change my forecast of winter precip for Wed and Thu.

[SouthernMet]

So reading through the morning AFD and forecast package, KADS ( Addison) does not see the freezing mark over the next 7 days. More model hugging?

Yeah I saw that, that was very surprising to me, I thought they were along the thinking that the models, (as they typically do with arctic fronts) were underestimating the cold due to the shallow airmass. But they have literally used the exact model output for temps if not a few degrees higher.

There is definitely a battle going on at the Fort Worth nws...

[Ralph's Weather]

So reading through the morning AFD and forecast package, KADS ( Addison) does not see the freezing mark over the next 7 days. More model hugging?

Yeah I saw that, that was very surprising to me, I thought they were along the thinking that the models, (as they typically do with arctic fronts) were underestimating the cold due to the shallow airmass. But they have literally used the exact model output for temps if not a few degrees higher.

There is definitely a battle going on at the Fort Worth nws...

Sure is and not sure why. Only reason I can think of is they do not trust themselves to go against the model consensus while Cav has more confidence in his ability to forecast in this pattern. I expect he will come in and add frozen precip and colder temps back in. Iwould love to see how the meetings there go with him seeing things so differently. My biggest issue with many of today's pro mets is that they don't actually forecast anymore. Models are nice to have, but a forecast should be based on the met's analysis not the model consensus.
A 1055 high over the Plains, a 570 500mb ridge into the AK peninsula and a digging upper trough into the SW to me clearly means that the cold is coming and moisture will very likely follow well ahead of any warm-up. The biggest bust potential will be if the high is not as strong as modeled if it is the cold will be racing down the lee of the Rockies and spilling our way by Tuesday.

[SouthernMet]

So reading through the morning AFD and forecast package, KADS ( Addison) does not see the freezing mark over the next 7 days. More model hugging?

Yeah I saw that, that was very surprising to me, I thought they were along the thinking that the models, (as they typically do with arctic fronts) were underestimating the cold due to the shallow airmass. But they have literally used the exact model output for temps if not a few degrees higher.

There is definitely a battle going on at the Fort Worth nws...

Sure is and not sure why. Only reason I can think of is they do not trust themselves to go against the model consensus while Cav has more confidence in his agility to forecast in this pattern. That is my biggest issue with today's pro mets, they don't actually forecast anymore. And if they go against the models and they are wrong they get reprimanded. Models are nice to have, but a forecast should be based on the met's analysis not the model consensus.
Any decent met should be able to see a 1055 high over the Plains, a 570 500mb ridge into the AK peninsula and a digging upper trough into the SW and be able to see that the cold is coming and moisture will very likely follow.

Exactly...

[opticsguy]

IIRC correctly, Cavanaugh himself mentioned that the models underestimate precip because there aren't any soundings off the West Coast south of San Diego (and not many aircraft either). This leaves a big hole in the initiation data of the models, just some satellite water vapor estimates, and this region is where our rain and snow come from in these SW upper trough situations.

This makes even the NAM somewhat suspect if moisture content over northern Mexico is underestimated in the initialization. Essentially, you can't get a good model run until about 12 hours ahead of the event. If the forecasters would admit this, it might help their reputation (the TV ones, I mean). Either that or get more sounding data between Mazatlan and Laredo (right).

Though this is not a forecast, the usual disclaimer applies.

[SouthernMet]

It looks to me that this morning's AFD/forecast package has them buying into the models... That the SW flog aloft will warm sfc temps, but Cavanaugh wasn't buying that and actually said his personal experience leads him to believe it could actually come in colder than currently progged..

I agree with Cavanaugh, and I think the models are failing to account for a snowpack, the intensity of the cold/due to shallow airmass & lack of sampling. That SW flow is really throwing them off, but the question is, is it going to effect precip type aloft(ice/freezing rain) or is it actually going to warm sfc temps & keep us above freezing?

[wxman57]

According to the 0zGFS and GFS-Parallel the Arctic front never makes it to Brownsville...

That would be a first for such a front. I think it'll pass Brownsville on its way to the western Bay of Campeche.

[SouthernMet]

Winter Weather Advisory issued for Wichita, Clay, Baylor, Archer, Wilbarger counties.

[Ralph's Weather]

The key to the SW flow not causing evening is the easterly flow at 700mb. Most SW flow patterns feature west winds at that level which warms the air from the downside effect and it would bring dry air from Mexico, easterly flew will do the opposite by piling up the air along the Rockies and also bringing additional moisture.

[dhweather]

Cat 5 in the Gulf? Anyone? I'm with wxman57 on this, if it is going to be THIS cold, it better snow. Otherwise I'll take highs in the 80's. You cannot run from bone chilling cold, you can sit in a shade tree in the 80's and be just fine.

[ndale]

EWX forecast is playing it safe right now, "AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND THEN ENTERING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING FORWARD
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING PART OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
COMES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THESE FORECAST PERIODS...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER TYPE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...WILL MENTION FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE AREAS ABOVE MENTIONED. HOWEVER...STILL DAYS AWAY BEFORE THIS
WINTER EVENT UNFOLDS. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE ARE DOING A BETTER JOB
WITH THIS EVENT THIS MORNING VERSUS 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WILL BE
MONITORING CLOSELY AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AS NEW
MODEL DATA AND HIRES SOLUTIONS ARE AVAILABLE."