Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Portastorm]

Winter Weather Advisory issued for Wichita, Clay, Baylor, Archer, Wilbarger counties.

Am curious if snow was in the forecast last night for this morning's weather in Wichita Falls?

Meanwhile, it looks to be a cold, raw day here in the capital of Texas. Temps dropping into the 40s, a north wind, and light rain falling.

[Portastorm]

EWX forecast is playing it safe right now, "AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND THEN ENTERING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING FORWARD
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING PART OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
COMES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THESE FORECAST PERIODS...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER TYPE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...WILL MENTION FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE AREAS ABOVE MENTIONED. HOWEVER...STILL DAYS AWAY BEFORE THIS
WINTER EVENT UNFOLDS. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE ARE DOING A BETTER JOB
WITH THIS EVENT THIS MORNING VERSUS 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WILL BE
MONITORING CLOSELY AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AS NEW
MODEL DATA AND HIRES SOLUTIONS ARE AVAILABLE."

As they should ... there's not one computer model I've seen this morning which shows wintry precip in their CWA (County Warning Area). They mention it as a possibility and at this point that's about all they can do.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Please correct me if I'm wrong...If there is a southwest flow aloft with the warm air riding over the cool air, and rain falling into the cold air, actually warm up the temperatures at the surface? Could this be what the models are projecting?

[ndale]

Yes I think they (EWX) are giving the right forecast for now but will not surprise me to see that change depending on how cold and how far south the air mass is and what precip does. Even Wxman57 said depending on these circumstances there could be frozen precip further south than the models show.

[Snowman67]

Winter Weather Advisory issued for Wichita, Clay, Baylor, Archer, Wilbarger counties.

Am curious if snow was in the forecast last night for this morning's weather in Wichita Falls?

Meanwhile, it looks to be a cold, raw day here in the capital of Texas. Temps dropping into the 40s, a north wind, and light rain falling.

Porta, this is from yesterday afternoon's Wichita Falls AFD. Notice the thinking was for precipitation amounts to decrease. It wasn't until later in the evening that the forecast was updated. Local TV met just said there is accumulating snow currently in Wichita Falls.

DISCUSSION...
A WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS OBSERVED ON RADAR
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS VIRGA AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THERE IS A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
AS EVIDENCED BY THE STRATUS... SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THERE.
WILL ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS EAST WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT. BUT OVERALL FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW... IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE TOO SIGNIFICANT OF AN EVENT OVER THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND OF DECREASING POPS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS

[Ralph's Weather]

Please correct me if I'm wrong...If there is a southwest flow aloft with the warm air riding over the cool air, and rain falling into the cold air, actually warm up the temperatures at the surface? Could this be what the models are projecting?

It just does not seem like there will be much warm air to bring down if the storm comes in by the 1st, if it is later than that it will start to get more questionable though it seems the models are warming us too quickly late in the week so even by the 2nd frozen precip is possible.

[gpsnowman]

http://contours.hamweather.net/contours ... points.png
Canada is getting cold. Hopefully by tomorrow the models will play catch up with Texas temps.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Fort Worth NWS has introduced wintry precipitation into the forecast for today (from Sherman to Stephenville and back to the west).

[srainhoutx]

Please correct me if I'm wrong...If there is a southwest flow aloft with the warm air riding over the cool air, and rain falling into the cold air, actually warm up the temperatures at the surface? Could this be what the models are projecting?

Let's look back to the mid November Arctic outbreak. The forecast here in Houston was for temperatures in the low to mid 40's and that was in fact what they were. A coastal low developed near Brownsville after the Arctic air had been in place for about 24 to 36 hours. As the Coastal low moved up the Coast during the late night hours, rain began and was even heavy at times. Surface temperatures dropped a good 8 to 10 degrees from evaporational cooling as the cold dry surface temperature saturated. We ended up with moderate rain and 35F. It could have been a nightmare if surface temperatures had been just 3 to 5 degrees colder particularly on our elevated roadways and fly overs. That sort of temperature drop was not forecast the afternoon before.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Haven't posted any this year but am constantly looking at all the posts. Posted a little bit last year. Just wanted to send an update from Burkburnett. Heavy snow is falling and has been all morning. Around 2-3" accumulations so far it seems.

[gpsnowman]

Good to hear from you, Yukon. You are the lucky one it seems. Probably a nice surprise considering it was not forecasted. Send some down DFW's way, please?

[ndale]

Haven't posted any this year but am constantly looking at all the posts. Posted a little bit last year. Just wanted to send an update from Burkburnett. Heavy snow is falling and has been all morning. Around 2-3" accumulations so far it seems.

San Angelo weather office has issued a weather advisory for snow, seems them and DFW offices were surprised by this system.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I'll try my best. The snow was never forecasted, just a 20% chance of light rain. It was nice wake up surprise!

[Tammie]

updated National Weather Service fort worth tx 724 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014 Update: Have updated to include a rain/sleet/snow mix west of a sherman to weatherford to comanche line for the remainder of the day. Recent reports from areas just west of the cwa indicate some light snow and sleet is occurring. Forecast soundings, in particular the rap, support some light snow and/or sleet May occur with the rain today across the west and northwest. Very little snow or sleet accumulations May occur on elevated or metal surfaces and roadways are expected to remain clear of any snow or sleet. Also adjusted pops up for the morning hours based on latest radar trends. Updated hourly temperature forecasts and wind trends for the remainder of the day as well using the latest rap data. The front has just about pushed through the entire cwa as of 725 am. 82/jld

[SouthernMet]

Winter Weather Advisory up for Haskell/Throckmorton counties for up to an inch of snow.

WWA for Wichita Falls for 1-3"+

Graham reporting snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

This is the type of event that keeps us enthusiasts going. We had been watching for this even with no model support and it is occurring it will be interesting to see how far it makes it east. The models are not showing the freeing temp at the surface or 850mb moving any east, but you would think it would move at least a bit east so I would say snow could fall over as far east as I35/35W in North Texas.

[Portastorm]

Winter Weather Advisory issued for Wichita, Clay, Baylor, Archer, Wilbarger counties.

Am curious if snow was in the forecast last night for this morning's weather in Wichita Falls?

Meanwhile, it looks to be a cold, raw day here in the capital of Texas. Temps dropping into the 40s, a north wind, and light rain falling.

Porta, this is from yesterday afternoon's Wichita Falls AFD. Notice the thinking was for precipitation amounts to decrease. It wasn't until later in the evening that the forecast was updated. Local TV met just said there is accumulating snow currently in Wichita Falls.

DISCUSSION...
A WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS OBSERVED ON RADAR
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS VIRGA AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THERE IS A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
AS EVIDENCED BY THE STRATUS... SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THERE.
WILL ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS EAST WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT. BUT OVERALL FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW... IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE TOO SIGNIFICANT OF AN EVENT OVER THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND OF DECREASING POPS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS

Thanks and I kinda suspected this was the case. So, if the computer models struggled in the 24-36 hour timeframe about our current weather with some surprises, people shouldn't get too hung up right now over what the models are showing for next week. Case in point.

[ndale]

If I can make up a phrase, if they "under" predicted this event and they "under" predict the arctic event, what will the real outcome be, just speculating.

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow: If I can make up a phrase if they "under" predicted this event and they "under" predict the arctic event, what will the real outcome be, just speculating.

Last week some models showed highs in the 20s and good snow totals across much of Texas. I think that potential is still in the cards as I expect the cold to be much more intense than shown by the models and I still do not buy into the idea of the low cutting off and sitting over CA for days as nothing has moved that slowly this year.

[SnowintheFalls]

I am from Wichita Falls and I can tell you the local mets were just as surprised as the rest of us this morning! They were calling for a slight chance of light rain with a possible snow mix briefly as of midnight last night. I went to bed then woke up to this! The mets are on Facebook speaking about how surprised they were. This is pretty cool!