Texas Winter 2018-2019

[South Texas Storms]

Merry Christmas everyone! We will need to be weather aware on Wednesday as a large part of the state will have a risk of severe weather. Like Porta mentioned this morning, a squall line will likely push through on Wednesday night, with all modes of severe weather possible.

[hriverajr]

The 18z GFS in the long range.... lol 850 temps 20 C above normal on the Canadian border. run to run consistency been terrible for awhile.

[Cpv17]

The 18z GFS in the long range.... lol 850 temps 20 C above normal on the Canadian border. run to run consistency been terrible for awhile.

The models are like slot machines right now lol you never know what you’re gonna get.

[Brent]

00z Euro control run hammers N & NE Texas with a wide swath of 10" of snow from DFW to the ArkLaTx.

Is there a map you can post please?

Looks like Jan 4-5th for this system.

https://i.ibb.co/9c8tGWY/SnowMG.png

only reason I might believe this... I'm leaving for NYC on the 4th

[Cpv17]

Is there a map you can post please?

Looks like Jan 4-5th for this system.

https://i.ibb.co/9c8tGWY/SnowMG.png

only reason I might believe this... I'm leaving for NYC on the 4th

Oh it’s a done deal then

[wxman57]

Absolutely massive differences in the GFS vs. the FV3-GFS as far as the pattern. FV3 has cross-Polar flow setting up after New Year's, bring very cold air south into the U.S. GFS has a continuation of the current pattern with no really cold air moving south. Euro more closely resembles the FV3 vs. the current GFS. Not exactly cross-Polar, but from far northern Canada and a deeper trof farther west than the FV3. I think I favor the warmer current GFS run...

However, I'm afraid that cold air is coming in January.

[wxman57]

Is there a map you can post please?

Looks like Jan 4-5th for this system.

https://i.ibb.co/9c8tGWY/SnowMG.png

only reason I might believe this... I'm leaving for NYC on the 4th

12Z run of that same control member has no snow east of the TX panhandle through Jan 7.

[Brent]

Looks like Jan 4-5th for this system.

https://i.ibb.co/9c8tGWY/SnowMG.png

only reason I might believe this... I'm leaving for NYC on the 4th

12Z run of that same control member has no snow east of the TX panhandle through Jan 7.

most of the GFS ensembles look blah too

[JMoses3419]

I am wondering just how strong the cold push will be for Texas because I find it hard to believe teens for lows down into OK. I don't know precisely how the GFS-FV3 is different from the old GFS. I do note that the Euro agrees with the GFS-FV3 on the first days of the new year being cold. Brings back memories of this time last year here.

Hopefully this cold spell is short lived if it does occur.

[CaptinCrunch]

Merry Christmas to my wonderful S2K family, my peace and joy be with you and your family this holiday.

[Brent]

at day 10 the CMC is unleashing the arctic with a 1051 mb high(!) over Colorado which would be extremely cold while the GFS is a nationwide torch the entire long range

[ThunderSleetDreams]

at day 10 the CMC is unleashing the arctic with a 1051 mb high(!) over Colorado which would be extremely cold while the GFS is a nationwide torch the entire long range

Old GFS is outlier. FV3 and CMC on board with Arctic. Earlier Euro is too... curious what the 00z Euro shows.

[Brent]

at day 10 the CMC is unleashing the arctic with a 1051 mb high(!) over Colorado which would be extremely cold while the GFS is a nationwide torch the entire long range

Old GFS is outlier. FV3 and CMC on board with Arctic. Earlier Euro is too... curious what the 00z Euro shows.

yeah the FV GFS is ridiculously cold and appears to be setting up a winter storm at day 11 1056 mb high in Nebraska

Edit: Snow stays well SW of DFW but it snows on the coast

[northjaxpro]

Wow!! 1056 mb mega Arctic High dome dropping down into the Dakotas and Nebraska, shown on the FV3 GFS 00Z run in 270 hours.

Big question with this as the FV3 GFS is massively different right now than the operational GFS. However, the Canadian 00Z run tonight is similar to the GFS FV3 as well, but the FV3 GFS is even more aggressive with a huge arctic plunge into the CONUS.

The FV3 GFS ... My. My if it ends up.being close to being right,.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[northjaxpro]

I am shivering just looking at that Lol...

[Brent]

nothing too crazy on the Euro though theres a fairly big front at the end of the run

[Lagreeneyes03]

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018122500/fv3p_ref_frzn_us_47.png

I think a lot of us in DFW will spit nails if this verifies....

[northjaxpro]

Here is a quick FYI for.any Texas A&M Aggies fans on this forum who are making the jourmey over here to Jacksonville for the New Year's Eve Gator Bowl game match-up against the N.C. State Wolfpack.

As it stands right now, NWS WFO is calling for mostly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of rain, with temperatures Monday night in the low.60s by the start of the game. The Southeast ridge will keep a cold front stalled out just north of the Jax metro region through New Year's Day. Temps will be mild.


So for the Aggie fans coming to the game, have a safe trip and welcome to Jacksonville. Hope you all have a great time while you are here and ringing in 2019 immediately after the game!!

[Shoshana]

I know most of us are consumed with wintry weather hopes but in my area of Texas, a very concerning severe weather episode appears to be on tap for Wednesday afternoon/evening. Per NWSFO Austin/San Antonio, if the squall line coming through is surface-based, our threat will be tornadoes and straight line wind damage. If the storms are elevated, very large hail. Yikes!

Yikes! I hope it’s not as bad as that sounds! When will we know which it might be?