Texas Winter 2025-2026

[wxman22]

Some good news is by the weekend the NW flow aloft looks to make a return and bring temps back down to seasonal for the foreseeable future. Baby steps...

[gpsnowman]

My neighbor's Bradford Pear tree, which just shed it's leaves ten days ago, is budding flowers already. Unbelievable. We are in the Twilight Zone. I took pictures and if I knew how to upload them I would post them.

[cstrunk]

SPC has a Day 5 (Friday) threat area outlined along the Mississippi River Valley, which lines up more with the GFS. The Euro has the system a bit slower, which could extend some severe risk farther west into deep East Texas. Something to watch before any potential winter activity afterward.

[Ntxw]

Looks like a possible coherent move by the MJO into phase 6 is now being seen by the models, shift that over to phase 7 over time and we will probably or at least a better than likely chance that a sharp cold air outbreak will come to the west and middle of the country. However it's still going to take time for that to happen if you're just going by MJO movement. The transition would occur mid-month over the Pacific and the cold would be later in the month, I know we're all tired of hearing about 2 weeks down the road. But it is tangible that the guidance is picking up on new MJO activity.

[Ntxw]

Some good news is by the weekend the NW flow aloft looks to make a return and bring temps back down to seasonal for the foreseeable future. Baby steps...

Yeah western PNA ridge pops up but not yet cold, there is Pacific air involved but at least will bring it down closer to normal. Once the +TNH sets up then it can get much colder.

~4-5 more days of this early Jan warm spell.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw, baby steps for sure, but definitely like the trend of seeing the ridge pop off the west coast in the medium range, we are going in the right direction, will definitely take time to get real cold to build up as the + TNH becomes established, but im more optimistic today that we may have something exciting to talk about within the next 2 weeks

[Gotwood]

I’ll go ahead and get the anti jinx kicked off.

WINTER CANCELED!!!!!

[Stratton23]

Pretty good trends all across the board in models and ensembles today , got a long ways to watch this, but i cant deny that things are definitely looking better

[orangeblood]

Pretty good trends all across the board in models and ensembles today , got a long ways to watch this, but i cant deny that things are definitely looking better

No doubt the best setup we've seen for cold this winter

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, baby steps for sure, but definitely like the trend of seeing the ridge pop off the west coast in the medium range, we are going in the right direction, will definitely take time to get real cold to build up as the + TNH becomes established, but im more optimistic today that we may have something exciting to talk about within the next 2 weeks

12z EPS has a lot of cold poised just to the north with a ripe pattern.

[Harp.1]

Is the Euro still giving us hope? Thanks

[Stratton23]

Yes, dont worry about the operational models, though even the operational models look a lot more in line with the ensembles today, which is good, but everything is also starting to move up in time on the models, its not getting pushed back anymore, which increases confidence that a pattern change is coming

[Harp.1]

Thanks

[Ntxw]

Yes, dont worry about the operational models, though even the operational models look a lot more in line with the ensembles today, which is good, but everything is also starting to move up in time on the models, its not getting pushed back anymore, which increases confidence that a pattern change is coming

Even the OPs are showing what a +TNH can look like in their long range. Cold tpv centered around Hudson Bay and energy diving south on the west/southwest edge of the continent. Carving trough with some S/E ridge. Signs are improving.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Yes, dont worry about the operational models, though even the operational models look a lot more in line with the ensembles today, which is good, but everything is also starting to move up in time on the models, its not getting pushed back anymore, which increases confidence that a pattern change is coming

Even the OPs are showing what a +TNH can look like in their long range. Cold tpv centered around Hudson Bay and energy diving south on the west/southwest edge of the continent. Carving trough with some S/E ridge. Signs are improving.

I think if we get the coherent mjo signal to move, the models will adjust accordingly.

[Brent]

End of the GFS has a little snow in Oklahoma

Well it's a start

[rwfromkansas]

Look, I am cautious since we have had multiple “fake out” hopes that evaporated. But seeing more folks on board is giving me a little sense of hope that maybe it’s real. I still need it to get within 10 days…

[Cpv17]

Look, I am cautious since we have had multiple “fake out” hopes that evaporated. But seeing more folks on board is giving me a little sense of hope that maybe it’s real. I still need it to get within 10 days…

Exactly how I feel and why I’m reluctant to buy into anything.

[Brent]

Look, I am cautious since we have had multiple “fake out” hopes that evaporated. But seeing more folks on board is giving me a little sense of hope that maybe it’s real. I still need it to get within 10 days…

Honestly yeah I get it Im basically joking with people it'll be February up here at this point because well it usually is something is gonna happen up here for sure there's no way it doesnt

[bubba hotep]

Interesting, some long-range agreement b/w the 18z GFS and the Euro AI.