Texas Winter 2012-2013

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Edit: If you look at it closely CMC/Euro/Ukmet are about a hundred miles apart from the GFS/NAM. Somebody is going to bust[/quote]
Yup!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

00Z ECMWF snowfall totals.
http://imageshack.us/a/img843/3235/imagewgpv.jpg

[HockeyTx82]

Just dreaming......

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 9&source=0



Ah, the good ol' days. Anyone remember these? (link below talks about all of our recent snow storms.)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=wintersnow09-10

[iorange55]

DFW NWS morning update...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE
CHRISTMAS DAY FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT TRACK
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER WHILE ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS MOVE THE UPPER LOW ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND DIFFER ONLY SLIGHTLY
FROM THE GFS SOLUTION. THEREFORE...WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A BLEND
OF THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND GFS SOLUTIONS. EXPECT RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNRISE
CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE SURGE OF DEEP COLD AIR WILL NOT MOVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS UNTIL THE UPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND MIDDAY. ONCE THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MOST OF
THE SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT SINCE THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL ALREADY BE
EAST OF THE DEEP COLD AIR. WE WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW MENTIONED IN
THE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND KEEP
MEASURABLE SNOW BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. BY
6 PM CHRISTMAS...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. OVERALL...TRAVEL IMPACTS CHRISTMAS
DAY SHOULD BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY FREEZE TUESDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW
FREEZING AND THIS COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Don't like the fact that I awoke to clear, cold, and dry here this morning. Where did my moisture and juicy dewpoints of lat night go? They left without doing anything

[wxman57]

00Z Euro has D-FW right on the edge of the snow again. GFS keeps the snow north of the Red River for the most part. NAM is even farther north than the GFS. Can't rule out any snowflakes in D-FW tomorrow, but it's looking less likely there will be any significant amount of accumulation (1/2 inch or more).

[HouTXmetro]

What are long range models showing around new years?

[DonWrk]

How are the models still showing pretty much the same as before the actual system has been sampled by the balloons? Shouldn't it be somewhat different with the new data?

[orangeblood]

CFSv2 is still adamant about making this January one of the top 10 coldest on record....in fact, last nights run, if it were to verify, would compete with 1978 for the coldest on record.

[iorange55]

CFSv2 is still adamant about making this January one of the top 10 coldest on record....in fact, last nights run, if it were to verify, would compete with 1978 for the coldest on record.

This is why I am not too upset about this upcoming storm.

[Portastorm]

How are the models still showing pretty much the same as before the actual system has been sampled by the balloons? Shouldn't it be somewhat different with the new data?

Not necessarily. This morning there are still subtle differences between the GFS, Euro, and NAM. But all three are in the same ballpark per se with the track of the system. It could be that they captured the atmosphere well enough in advance that drastic differences or changes were not necessary. Data is constantly being ingested into these models. For example, even though RAOBs with the system coming into the Pacific coast hadn't been launched yet, commercial aircraft data (pilot reports, winds, etc.) on the system was being ingested into the models. It's a gradual process and not an either/or.

From my non-emotionally invested seat, DFW getting snow out of this system was always an outside chance anyhow. Some flurries? Yeah. Accumulating snow? No. There were some model runs which showed the latter but that was not the majority.

Anyhow, keep the faith ... lots more winter to go. If you see some flurries tomorrow, consider yourself lucky. Most of us won't.

[Tireman4]

CFSv2 is still adamant about making this January one of the top 10 coldest on record....in fact, last nights run, if it were to verify, would compete with 1978 for the coldest on record.

This is why I am not too upset about this upcoming storm.

Me neither. I think we will have more chances in the 2013...!!!

[gpsnowman]

About to drive to East Texas for Christmas. Hope everyone has a safe and Merry Christmas. If it does snow in DFW, please send pics. I'll be looking! Take care, all.

[Portastorm]

About to drive to East Texas for Christmas. Hope everyone has a safe and Merry Christmas. If it does snow in DFW, please send pics. I'll be looking! Take care, all.

Safe travels gps ... Merry Christmas to you and yours!

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

I am betting on the simple fact that the kids big gift is a mini scooter- moped thing - that Waco is sure to have rain or snow of some form- The 30mph wind is enough to keep me from outside- I am thankful to finally get out of the 70s and 80s!

[Brandon8181]

Hello Hello!

I've been watching along as I often do. I'm so busy now with three children...and they seem to keep coming?

I've moved to Tyler, TX from Denison, TX (to bad so sad no snow ! )

However, I saw that it was posted about "Texas Snowman" which is also from Denison... and I haven't heard from him at all

Merry Christmas!

[Portastorm]

Hello Hello!

I've been watching along as I often do. I'm so busy now with three children...and they seem to keep coming?

I've moved to Tyler, TX from Denison, TX (to bad so sad no snow ! )

However, I mentioned that it was posted about "Texas Snowman" which is also from Denison... and I haven't heard from him at all

Merry Christmas!

Nice to see you posting Brandon! I remember you were quite active several winters ago. Sounds like you've been busy!

Texas Snowman is still around.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 12Z NAM has shifted ever so slightly south. This has happened on the past three runs. It appears the 12Z GFS is taking the low near I-20.

[missytingarland]

It's looking more and more like the Sherman area (where I am now) and the DFW area (where I live) isn't going to get anything. Boo...

[Portastorm]

It's looking more and more like the Sherman area (where I am now) and the DFW area (where I live) isn't going to get anything. Boo...

What do you mean? NWS Fort Worth's latest forecast indicates the possibility of 1-2 inches of snow for Sherman.