Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

The trend, however subtle, is slowing the second piece. The further south and slower the better.

[TheProfessor]

The trend, however subtle, is slowing the second piece. The further south and slower the better.

Our source region is 20 to 30C below their normal (which is already cold for our standards). When you're dealing with an airmass that cold funneling down the Plains it's going to do so quickly. Wouldn't surprise me if the models were too far north with everything.

[Ntxw]

The trend, however subtle, is slowing the second piece. The further south and slower the better.

Our source region is 20 to 30C below their normal (which is already cold for our standards). When you're dealing with an airmass that cold funneling down the Plains it's going to do so quickly. Wouldn't surprise me if the models were too far north with everything.

Yeah. If it digs a little more south it'll have a better chance to tap into better moisture. It's not that far off.

[Ntxw]

Quite the front to watch. 70s ahead will quickly drop in the 30s just a few hours later.

FYI if the snow does fly (and make it to the ground) it'll be well into the 20s.

[TheProfessor]

Big shift with temperatures between the 15z and 21z SREF. 21z SREF now gets Wichita down to about 35 degrees (previously 43) at 6z Saturday. Additionally there are a few warm outliers that have us in the mid to upper 50s at that time (way too warm, the system would have to be a good 12 hours slower for that) which brings the mean down to 32 at 6z. With the increase QPF that ends up a big deal with how much ice we could see here. 

[TheProfessor]

Quite the front to watch. 70s ahead will quickly drop in the 30s just a few hours later.

FYI if the snow does fly (and make it to the ground) it'll be well into the 20s.

We could be dealing with freezing rain and sleet in the teens here. A bad bad combo.

[aggiecutter]

https://www.arklatexhomepage.com/news/l ... texarkana/

[Ntxw]

Quite the front to watch. 70s ahead will quickly drop in the 30s just a few hours later.

FYI if the snow does fly (and make it to the ground) it'll be well into the 20s.

We could be dealing with freezing rain and sleet in the teens here. A bad bad combo.

A lot of it. You can see on the short range and hi res the surface dense cold air is outrunning the upper flow. 850mb is lagging behind the lower levels.

[Cerlin]

I’d appreciate it if that second piece can slow down all the way to 6 pm or else I might try to look at getting a red eye flight.

[Brent]

Feeling pretty optimistic here... One problem won't be temperatures for once

[Golf7270]

Feeling pretty optimistic here... One problem won't be temperatures for once

What are u feeling optimistic about brent? Just curious lol

[Brent]

Feeling pretty optimistic here... One problem won't be temperatures for once

What are u feeling optimistic about brent? Just curious lol

The second wave Saturday Night with the snow

[Golf7270]

Feeling pretty optimistic here... One problem won't be temperatures for once

What are u feeling optimistic about brent? Just curious lol

The second wave Saturday Night with the snow

Ok. Hopefully it actually develops and hits all of us. Air will be drying out quick imo

[Brent]

What are u feeling optimistic about brent? Just curious lol

The second wave Saturday Night with the snow

Ok. Hopefully it actually develops and hits all of us. Air will be drying out quick imo

Well I mean yeah but also when it's that cold you don't need much moisture now whether it's real significant accumulation yeah but hey I'd be happy with anything after this last month of heat

I mean it is gonna be a quick hitter that's the big negative I see but like I said at least temperatures won't be the problem that's usually what screws us

[txtwister78]

GFS back to bringing the cold late next week

[Brent]

GFS back to bringing the cold late next week

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/t2m_f_anom/1640908800/1641535200-JHy8jqK86WU.png

Yeah highs in the 30s here already and yeah probably too warm if the GFS is right

January already looks more impressive than anything in December and it hasn't even started yet

[Ntxw]

GFS back to bringing the cold late next week

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/t2m_f_anom/1640908800/1641535200-JHy8jqK86WU.png

That's a very shallow air mass. 500mb is warmish. That kind of upstream pattern will linger the cold.

[Brent]

GFS back to bringing the cold late next week

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/t2m_f_anom/1640908800/1641535200-JHy8jqK86WU.png

That's a very shallow air mass. 500mb is warmish. That kind of upstream pattern will linger the cold.

Yeah and I seem to remember when the torch was coming back

Mid 50s is the warmest I get. That's not even a torch after what we've dealt with for weeks... A few days ago the forecast was 60s

Just for perspective... Every week this month we've had at least 2 days with a high in the 70s even up here

[TheProfessor]

Seems like some of the mesoscale models have shifted northwest with the 0z and 3z runs. Those northwest shifts are dreaded in the Midwest, but I don't see that playing out here. It would be one thing if this system was about to kick and go negative tilt, I'd even expect it in that scenario. With the positively tilted trough it screams the opposite where we see it dig more and shallow cold air goes rushing down the Plains (on the onset). Maybe it'll be different this time, but this looks like a textbook ice storm setup where the freezing line ends up further south than expected.

[SnowintheFalls]

Big shift with temperatures between the 15z and 21z SREF. 21z SREF now gets Wichita down to about 35 degrees (previously 43) at 6z Saturday. Additionally there are a few warm outliers that have us in the mid to upper 50s at that time (way too warm, the system would have to be a good 12 hours slower for that) which brings the mean down to 32 at 6z. With the increase QPF that ends up a big deal with how much ice we could see here. 

It throws me off every time you mention Wichita. I have to double back to make sure there is no Falls behind it. lol