Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

Looks like the ICON is onboard. That's one heck of a winter storm setting up on the 0z ICON.

https://i.ibb.co/FJFP69Z/icon-all-conus-z500-anom-6251200.png

What would this equate too, when, where and how much?

Unfortunately that's the end of the run lol

But probably mid to late next week like the euro

[HockeyTx82]

Looks like the ICON is onboard. That's one heck of a winter storm setting up on the 0z ICON.

https://i.ibb.co/FJFP69Z/icon-all-conus-z500-anom-6251200.png

What would this equate too, when, where and how much?

Unfortunately that's the end of the run lol

But probably mid to late next week like the euro

Oh okay I think I'm getting confused with some of the post out of Oklahoma and getting the two systems confused.

So nothing for North Texas early next week, but mid and late next week is our potential window now.

But Oklahoma might get something this Sunday into Monday?

[wxman22]

What would this equate too, when, where and how much?

Unfortunately that's the end of the run lol

But probably mid to late next week like the euro

Oh okay I think I'm getting confused with some of the post out of Oklahoma and getting the two systems confused.

So nothing for North Texas early next week, but mid and late next week is our potential window now.

But Oklahoma might get something this Sunday into Monday?

Yes.

[Brent]

Yeah most of Texas probably won't have a shot til about day 8 or 9

That's the great thing about this pattern though there's gonna be multiple storms

[orangeblood]

What would this equate too, when, where and how much?

Unfortunately that's the end of the run lol

But probably mid to late next week like the euro

Oh okay I think I'm getting confused with some of the post out of Oklahoma and getting the two systems confused.

So nothing for North Texas early next week, but mid and late next week is our potential window now.

But Oklahoma might get something this Sunday into Monday?

Still too early to say, models are all over the place from Sunday on

[HockeyTx82]

Now the fun part! We rescheduled our Cub Scout campout from October due to a rainout to the weekend of January 10-12.

I brought it up tonight we might have to postpone this one too because it might be too dang cold.

I said by Monday next week we should have a better idea.

We're talking kindergarten through 5th grade, so I don't think a bunch of frozen young Cub Scouts would make for a good news story.

What y'all's thoughts if you were in my position on having to reschedule by next Monday? We camp in the Denton County Area.

[Ralph's Weather]

What would this equate too, when, where and how much?

Unfortunately that's the end of the run lol

But probably mid to late next week like the euro

Oh okay I think I'm getting confused with some of the post out of Oklahoma and getting the two systems confused.

So nothing for North Texas early next week, but mid and late next week is our potential window now.

But Oklahoma might get something this Sunday into Monday?

Canadian and ICON want to give NTX ice early week but better support for the mid week system. Still too early to tell. Early week depends on how the upper low develops.

[Ntxw]

Now the fun part! We rescheduled our Cub Scout campout from October due to a rainout to the weekend of January 10-12.

I brought it up tonight we might have to postpone this one too because it might be too dang cold.

I said by Monday next week we should have a better idea.

We're talking kindergarten through 5th grade, so I don't think a bunch of frozen young Cub Scouts would make for a good news story.

What y'all's thoughts if you were in my position on having to reschedule by next Monday? We camp in the Denton County Area.

That seems like post storm time. It will be cold and possibly icy.

[Ntxw]

GFS looks like it's going to pop a winter storm mid week. Cold air is definitely in place ahead of it.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Latest Euro AI run now takes this weekends S/W so far south it cuts off a piece towards El Paso, big Texas winter storm Monday into Tuesday

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/conus/z500_anom/1735581600/1736186400-WKj1RzBFOBA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/scentus/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1735581600/1736251200-Dmi75JIFS3g.png

That’s January winter weather NC-17 stuff right there.

[sphelps8681]

I don't want any of this mess. My power has and gone out the last two days with sun a shinning. Have a generator but last time we had any substantial cold weather weather event in SE Tx it was horrible. Power out for a few weeks. Ya'll can have it up in the northern areas.

[Brandon8181]

GFS looks like it's going to pop a winter storm mid week. Cold air is definitely in place ahead of it.

Looks like it appears the ICON wants to do the same as it becomes in range.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the 18z, south central and southeast Texas special for snow.

Gulf low far south, basically the gulf coast this run is the winner.

[Ntxw]

At 500mb another takeaway is that there is northern stream energy trying to connect with the base trough, so the GFS has definitely been caving to the Euro. We're very close to a phase.

[orangeblood]

Looks like the 18z, south central and southeast Texas special for snow.

Gulf low far south, basically the gulf coast this run is the winner.

Suppressed and Bone Dry all the way to East Coast, not the setup we want for precip. Not liking the trajectory of that S/W early next week, Won’t be able to tap any moisture from the STJ. It’s likely going to have to come on the backside in NW flow, won’t take much with high ratios in that scenario

[Ntxw]

Looks like the 18z, south central and southeast Texas special for snow.

Gulf low far south, basically the gulf coast this run is the winner.

Suppressed and Bone Dry all the way to East Coast, not the setup we want for precip. It’s likely going to have to come on the backside in NW flow, won’t take much with high ratios in that scenario

Great Lakes tpv shreds. CMC was dry too with the feature.

[orangeblood]

Looks like the 18z, south central and southeast Texas special for snow.

Gulf low far south, basically the gulf coast this run is the winner.

Suppressed and Bone Dry all the way to East Coast, not the setup we want for precip. It’s likely going to have to come on the backside in NW flow, won’t take much with high ratios in that scenario

Great Lakes tpv shreds. CMC was dry too with the feature.

18Z Euro AI 5h setup is what we want, s/w needs to get into Northern Mexico to get the low level gulf jet involved

[Brent]

The GFS is getting crazier for Sunday the clown map has 13 inches just east of me by Monday

The non clown map? On Pivotal has a foot in SW Missouri

[Brent]

The GFS has almost 10 days here below freezing that's crazy that would be almost as bad as 2021

Looks like the Euro storm is still there

Still snowing into the Gulf on the ensembles

[Brandon8181]

The GFS has almost 10 days here below freezing that's crazy that would be almost as bad as 2021

Looks like the Euro storm is still there

Still snowing into the Gulf on the ensembles

Yup, Euro puts on a nice Winter show across Texas.