Texas Winter 2013-2014

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

#1521 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:51 am

0 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1522 Postby Portastorm » Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:52 am

Hey everyone, thanks for the photos! There's some great stuff there and it is so cool to see what's going on in your backyards (or front yards as it were!).

PWC's quick perusal of the 12z models suggests very minimal precip chances in the state until Sunday. Looks like overrunning moisture ramps up some on Sunday into Monday. Of course surface temps will be critical. As I mentioned earlier there is also a concern that the models don't capture all of the shortwaves rounding the base of the full latitude trough in which we are literally sitting. Those can create "surprise" precip and it's something to watch for this weekend.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6179
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1523 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:55 am

[img]Image[/img]

Don't know why that loaded up that way. But that's my driveway in northern Grayson County.
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22981
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1524 Postby wxman57 » Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:56 am

12z GFS doesn't see any significant precip across Texas this weekend. Just cold and dry. Getting close to 70 deg by the end of the period in Houston.

Image

Image

Image
0 likes   

downsouthman1
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 663
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:14 pm
Location: Rowlett, TX

Re:

#1525 Postby downsouthman1 » Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:59 am

0 likes   
Not a professional MET! My posts are merely speculation.

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1526 Postby Portastorm » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:00 pm

The 12z NAM, at least the radar reflectivity part of the run, showed precip for southern/south central Texas on Sunday. Looks like the NAM is wetter than GFS per 12z runs.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22981
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1527 Postby wxman57 » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:00 pm

NAM doesn't see any significant precip in the Dallas area Saturday or Sunday
Image
0 likes   

katheria
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 338
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 10:51 pm
Location: Garland TX

#1528 Postby katheria » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:04 pm

i like winter, but not this.


wxman57, think ill join ya and wish for 80 degree temps
0 likes   
just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information

Snowman67
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 633
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 12:44 pm
Location: Tomball, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1529 Postby Snowman67 » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:07 pm

Portastorm wrote:Hey everyone, thanks for the photos! There's some great stuff there and it is so cool to see what's going on in your backyards (or front yards as it were!).

PWC's quick perusal of the 12z models suggests very minimal precip chances in the state until Sunday. Looks like overrunning moisture ramps up some on Sunday into Monday. Of course surface temps will be critical. As I mentioned earlier there is also a concern that the models don't capture all of the shortwaves rounding the base of the full latitude trough in which we are literally sitting. Those can create "surprise" precip and it's something to watch for this weekend.


The "surprise" you refer to reminded me of a time several years ago on a trip to visit family in Waco. A couple of days prior there was snow in the official forecast there. I got my kids excited telling them that there would be snow. Well the snow didn't come, and we waited until the NWS finally removed all chances of any precipitation. We were about half way back to Tomball when my mom called and told me it started snowing. They ended up with 3 inches that eveining. I didn't have the heart to tell the kids. All of this to say that you are right that the models sometimes do not correctly forecast snow events, sometimes even within hours of it. I think those in N. Texas know exaclty what I'm talking about, when just a few years ago, the forecast was for minor accumulations and then they ended up with a foot in some places.
0 likes   
Any forecast I make is based on my opinion only. Please refer to the NWS or NHC for official forecasts.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22981
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1530 Postby wxman57 » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:11 pm

Here's the 12Z NAM for Austin. 0.01" of precip Saturday evening:

Image

Long period of drizzle in Houston this weekend. Temps well above freezing:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1531 Postby Portastorm » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:16 pm

Interesting. It doesn't appear to match up very well with the radar reflectivity map on the NAM, but I trust the meteogram. We shall see.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22981
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1532 Postby wxman57 » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:20 pm

Portastorm wrote:Interesting. It doesn't appear to match up very well with the radar reflectivity map on the NAM, but I trust the meteogram. We shall see.


Seems to match up with the model loop below. Just a light green shading across SE TX indicating very light rain/drizzle. Nothing heavy.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Imageanis.php

48hr NAM precip has generally < 0.10 inch across TX. A little over a tenth in SE TX this weekend:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1533 Postby Portastorm » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:21 pm

I like where EWX is going with this and it matches the concern that I have as well.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1116 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
DISTURBANCES HAVE NOW SWEPT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION
NOW ENDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL TAKE OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME MINOR OVERRUNNING POSSIBLE.

HAVE CONCERNS REGARDING SOME OVERRUNNING FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE MIXED
WITH SOME SLEET BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NOON.
A NEW SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH SWEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SOME ENHANCED OVERRUNNING GULF MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS. A NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS...STAY TUNED.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
ColdFusion
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:46 pm
Location: Addison, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1534 Postby ColdFusion » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:25 pm

View out the front door right now.
Location, DFW - Dallas Tollway @ Hwy 121. If you step in it, you dont sink, its pretty darn solid.
I tried the measure the accumulation on the patio table, but couldnt stick a ruler thru it, was like an ice cube.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Tammie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 327
Joined: Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:49 am
Location: Sherman, TX

#1535 Postby Tammie » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:29 pm

Is there a link on how to post a photo?
0 likes   
Tammie - Sherman TX

katheria
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 338
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 10:51 pm
Location: Garland TX

Re:

#1536 Postby katheria » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:33 pm

Tammie wrote:Is there a link on how to post a photo?



when you reply look at the top bar
you will see Img
click it [img][/img will show
in the middle between ][ put ur link to where the photo is
0 likes   
just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information

downsouthman1
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 663
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:14 pm
Location: Rowlett, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1537 Postby downsouthman1 » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:36 pm

ColdFusion wrote:View out the front door right now.
Location, DFW - Dallas Tollway @ Hwy 121. If you step in it, you dont sink, its pretty darn solid.
I tried the measure the accumulation on the patio table, but couldnt stick a ruler thru it, was like an ice cube.

http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/4678/r39j.jpg

Amazing that it looks like snow but is ice.
0 likes   
Not a professional MET! My posts are merely speculation.

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6179
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

#1538 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:40 pm

Just saw some pics of the freezing rain near Paris. Terrible stuff over there...
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

downsouthman1
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 663
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:14 pm
Location: Rowlett, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1539 Postby downsouthman1 » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:41 pm

So is the Saturday PM/Sunday AM disturbance that little impulse over SoCal right now?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash
0 likes   
Not a professional MET! My posts are merely speculation.

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

#1540 Postby gboudx » Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:42 pm

Some of you got much more sleet than we did. We're mostly ice.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest