Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

I personally dont even think the GFS Op should even be looked at for the cold, maybe for sniffing out storm systems, but with how pathetically bad it is at seeing arctic air, not worth look at the part of the model lol

[orangeblood]

I personally dont even think the GFS Op should even be looked at for the cold, maybe for sniffing out storm systems, but with how pathetically bad it is at seeing arctic air, not worth look at the part of the model lol

Yep, and unfortunately where most of the weather apps everyone relies on gets its data input from

[rwfromkansas]

Local mets in DFW don’t seem to be buying into anything extreme. Highs in the 40s through next Tuesday. Lows upper 20s.

Most DFW mets don’t seem very good for it being a top media market. I listen to Evan and Steve M (not even on TV)…

Pete is an utter clown. He’s a joke.

It’s weird. In Kansas you could really trust any of the mets were great. Merrill Teller was my main guy but lots were good.

[Harp.1]

I personally dont even think the GFS Op should even be looked at for the cold, maybe for sniffing out storm systems, but with how pathetically bad it is at seeing arctic air, not worth look at the part of the model lol

The GFS continues to raid the whiskey cabinet. Do the GFS ensembles show the cold?

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 yes the GEFS has consistently been way colder than the OP run, thats why i said the GFS op run right now is basically pointless to look at for the cold because it basically on an island by itself lol

[BigB0882]

I’m in SELA (Baton Rouge). Is the cold going to come this way or will there be a stout ridge to stop it from making it this far east? (Assuming this all pans out)

[aggiecutter]

The analogs being mentioned are for 1949. It just so happens the pic below popped up on my Twitter feed this morning:

[gpsnowman]

The analogs being mentioned are for 1949. It just so happens the pic below popped up on my Twitter feed this morning:

[url]https://i.ibb.co/4mDPcr2/snow.png [/url]

Great photo. Look how close to the Alamo you could park your car in those days. And the man in photo is........Santa Anna coming back for a visit.

[Ntxw]

It's kind of a bummer the early week system trended so far north. Could've been a good one, I guess we sacrifice it for snow cover up north. Was hoping it could end the January snow drought.

[gpsnowman]

It's kind of a bummer the early week system trended so far north. Could've been a good one, I guess we sacrifice it for snow cover up north. Was hoping it could end the January snow drought.

Agreed. By the time our cold is ready to come down, a decent snowpack should be laid down. At least a lot better than is has been.

[aggiecutter]

exponent keyboard

[wxman57]

That's some major flip with the 12Z Canadian. From a high near 80 next Tuesday to a high in the lower 20s. Clearly, the 12Z Canadian is wrong. Here come the 80s!

[Ntxw]

That's some major flip with the 12Z Canadian. From a high near 80 next Tuesday to a high in the lower 20s. Clearly, the 12Z Canadian is wrong. Here come the 80s!

I have to agree! Canadian still too slow, it will be even faster coming down. .

[bubba hotep]

Both the 12z GFS and Canadain trended a bit wetter. It's not unrealistic that any place that ends up with snow cover could push all-time record lows.

[Texas Snow]

Most DFW mets don’t seem very good for it being a top media market. I listen to Evan and Steve M (not even on TV)…

Pete is an utter clown. He’s a joke.

It’s weird. In Kansas you could really trust any of the mets were great. Merrill Teller was my main guy but lots were good.

Evan is confidently going with the more conservative glancing blow approach:

Friday...SIX days from now is where we start to get huge model divergences that will make a BIG difference in the extended forecast. Do we have COLD air coming? YES. It will come in pieces. Will we get the full brunt of ARCTIC air and record temps? NO. That will stay north of us. It will exist across the nation, but not here.

Friday may see RAIN to briefly start the day as temps in the 40s FALL PM. It turns windy and cold after that.
Saturday looks mainly sunny and COLD. Lows in 20s, highs near 40. Sunday clouds up with highs in the 40s.
More downs and ups after that.

[Ntxw]

Most DFW mets don’t seem very good for it being a top media market. I listen to Evan and Steve M (not even on TV)…

Pete is an utter clown. He’s a joke.

It’s weird. In Kansas you could really trust any of the mets were great. Merrill Teller was my main guy but lots were good.

Evan is confidently going with the more conservative glancing blow approach:

Friday...SIX days from now is where we start to get huge model divergences that will make a BIG difference in the extended forecast. Do we have COLD air coming? YES. It will come in pieces. Will we get the full brunt of ARCTIC air and record temps? NO. That will stay north of us. It will exist across the nation, but not here.

Friday may see RAIN to briefly start the day as temps in the 40s FALL PM. It turns windy and cold after that.
Saturday looks mainly sunny and COLD. Lows in 20s, highs near 40. Sunday clouds up with highs in the 40s.
More downs and ups after that.

A lot are waiting on the GFS.

[Cpv17]

Most DFW mets don’t seem very good for it being a top media market. I listen to Evan and Steve M (not even on TV)…

Pete is an utter clown. He’s a joke.

It’s weird. In Kansas you could really trust any of the mets were great. Merrill Teller was my main guy but lots were good.

Evan is confidently going with the more conservative glancing blow approach:

Friday...SIX days from now is where we start to get huge model divergences that will make a BIG difference in the extended forecast. Do we have COLD air coming? YES. It will come in pieces. Will we get the full brunt of ARCTIC air and record temps? NO. That will stay north of us. It will exist across the nation, but not here.

Friday may see RAIN to briefly start the day as temps in the 40s FALL PM. It turns windy and cold after that.
Saturday looks mainly sunny and COLD. Lows in 20s, highs near 40. Sunday clouds up with highs in the 40s.
More downs and ups after that.

So dense cold air is just gonna quit moving south? Oh okay

[IcyTundra]

That met could be right for all we know if it is really going to be a big freeze then the globals should start to show it within the next 2-3 days.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That's some major flip with the 12Z Canadian. From a high near 80 next Tuesday to a high in the lower 20s. Clearly, the 12Z Canadian is wrong. Here come the 80s!

The 80s are coming, no doubt….. in about 8-10 weeks.

[orangeblood]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/TRsMMKv/Temps.png [/url]
exponent keyboard

Apparent Temp of minus 82.5F Northern Montana on ICON less than a week out