Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

Cold 850 temps on the ensembles expands significantly across the North American continent (+TNH) in tandem with -EPO. Slight SE ridge will funnel the cold from N-C Canada to the west and central US. This is a different look than the cold pattern earlier this winter.

+TNH (Big -EPO) typically leads to big arctic outbreaks due to expansive cold pool and favorable Pacific.





https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

[Ntxw]

More importantly really happy to see MJO forecasts ramp up. A coherent active MJO is much better for pattern change than split forcing in the null circle. Ideally 6->7 (don't stay in 6) quick pass 8 into 1-2 would be the best.

[Harp.1]

It appears things are looking up

[Ntxw]

It appears things are looking up

We're not there yet, much of this is still 2 weeks out. But in a week would like to see pieces moving and knock down these above normal temps.

[txtwister78]

It appears things are looking up

Long way to go still. 15-20 days out and a lot can change in that timeframe. Keep that in mind. I get it if you're looking for something to track though and hoping for some true winter weather.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think the key is getting some sort of MJO movement. The MJO will make things much more predictable. If the models see the MJO popping in a relatively short period of time, models can latch onto other dynamics much easier.

[txtwister78]

I think the key is getting some sort of MJO movement. The MJO will make things much more predictable. If the models see the MJO popping in a relatively short period of time, models can latch onto other dynamics much easier.

That is definitely a better signal than what you had just a few days ago there but still some differences in terms of timing/progression but nonetheless at least you have some sense of where this "could be" headed going forward

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think the key is getting some sort of MJO movement. The MJO will make things much more predictable. If the models see the MJO popping in a relatively short period of time, models can latch onto other dynamics much easier.

That is definitely a better signal than what you had just a few days ago there but still some differences in terms of timing/progression but nonetheless at least you have some sense of where this "could be" headed going forward

Right. It's something. With the current nina state were in, with no MJO activity, the winter weather is miserable.

[Stratton23]

Love the looks on the 18z GFS and AI GFS! If you want winter storm chances across the deep south, thats exactly the kind of pattern you want to see at day 10 ish

[Golfisnoteasy75]

It appears things are looking up

We're not there yet, much of this is still 2 weeks out. But in a week would like to see pieces moving and knock down these above normal temps.

If we want winter to begin, one would want to see the mjo progress and not get stuck. Im hopeful it can happen. Definitely don't want the kicking of the can scenario to happen again lol

[Ntxw]

It's also not just winter aspects, though that is one side effect of winter lovers want, but also out in the Pacific Ocean there is a potential WWB or westerly wind burst that's going to be the driver for this upcoming MJO impulse. Ramifications go beyond just the next month as it is the initial building block for a possible big El niño this coming year. La niña is quickly collapsing.

ENSO Thread

[Golfisnoteasy75]

It's also not just winter aspects, though that is one side effect of winter lovers want, but also out in the Pacific Ocean there is a potential WWB or westerly wind burst that's going to be the driver for this upcoming MJO impulse. Ramifications go beyond just the next month as it is the initial building block for a possible big El niño this coming year. La niña is quickly collapsing.

ENSO Thread

Eric webb mentioned it again today. We know there is a high chance at an elniño later this year, but will the things going on be enough to allow winter to come south into our area? That's the million dollar question.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

1072 MB high in La La land of the GFS. A few runs in a row it has showed a goliath block over the Bering Sea.

[orangeblood]

It's also not just winter aspects, though that is one side effect of winter lovers want, but also out in the Pacific Ocean there is a potential WWB or westerly wind burst that's going to be the driver for this upcoming MJO impulse. Ramifications go beyond just the next month as it is the initial building block for a possible big El niño this coming year. La niña is quickly collapsing.

ENSO Thread

Biggest mid-winter La Niña collapse we’ve ever witnessed ? Should help push the MJO into 8-1

[Gotwood]

I am getting desperate for snow. Wish the storm in the panhandle was on Saturday I would probably make the drive. I hope we get something this winter I can’t imagine having a winter with no trace of winter precipitation.

[orangeblood]

1072 MB high in La La land of the GFS. A few runs in a row it has showed a goliath block over the Bering Sea.

When you start seeing these 850 anomalies showing up on an
ENS Mean, buckle up!!!

[Brent]

I am getting desperate for snow. Wish the storm in the panhandle was on Saturday I would probably make the drive. I hope we get something this winter I can’t imagine having a winter with no trace of winter precipitation.

I can't even find a year here since 1904 the airport didn't measure anything

I mean obviously it's better up here normally(technically we had a flizzard for 5 minutes on December 1st) but like dang I'm convinced up here. It's not an if it happens to me. It's going to happen

[Golfisnoteasy75]

1072 MB high in La La land of the GFS. A few runs in a row it has showed a goliath block over the Bering Sea.

When you start seeing these 850 anomalies showing up on an
ENS Mean, buckle up!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg/namer/t850_anom_stream/1767722400/1769018400-J36TNJGIEtI.png

Do you like the new ai models? Or do you think they over exaggerated a pattern?

[orangeblood]

1072 MB high in La La land of the GFS. A few runs in a row it has showed a goliath block over the Bering Sea.

When you start seeing these 850 anomalies showing up on an
ENS Mean, buckle up!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg/namer/t850_anom_stream/1767722400/1769018400-J36TNJGIEtI.png

Do you like the new ai models? Or do you think they over exaggerated a pattern?

Started to see remarkable improvement with the ECMWF’s AIFS ENS since it rolled out in July 2025. Pretty significant performance gains over the classic IFS ENS — up to 25% better skill on upper-air geopotential height and temperature. It’s worth paying attention to

[TomballEd]

East Texas severe chances with Pacific front Friday.