Texas Winter 2012-2013

[txsnowman1369]

Thanks! The local weather guys here seem to be all over the place... seems like this is one tricky storm to predict!

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is close to 00Z Euro in the snow placement. D-FW east through Tyler/Longview on the edge of the snow.

[Ntxw]

A more colorful version of wxman57's chart!

[Portastorm]

The southward trend from the models on the progged shortwave also has an impact on those of us anticipating severe weather in the southern sector of this storm. The northeastern portions of the greater Austin metro area and Houston are back in the "slight risk" category for severe weather tomorrow morning. I'm not surprised as I cautioned folks about this yesterday.

[Ntxw]

^ It's a very serious situation for many in the warm sector. Really good thread over in the USA forum about all the outlooks and statistics, people should check it out there who's in the way for updates and changes

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=114408

[Portastorm]

Here we go ... GFS vs. King Euro ... 12z Euro coming in now. The low res version I see looks to have the low center further north than the 12z GFS.

[Ntxw]

Euro has remained remarkably consistent. Could be a moderate burst of snow over the metroplex (maybe even a bit south of I-20) towards the Red River tomorrow around Noon to 4pm



850's are very cold, I think a 10:1 ratio or a little higher might be possible. Texarkana and southeast Oklahoma, bring out the shovels!

[HockeyTx82]

I am liking my chances here in the Denton/Corinth area

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Euro has remained remarkably consistent. Could be a moderate burst of snow over the metroplex (maybe even a bit south of I-20) towards the Red River tomorrow around Noon to 4pm

http://i49.tinypic.com/1zeh6vm.png

850's are very cold, I think a 10:1 ratio or a little higher might be possible. Texarkana and southeast Oklahoma, bring out the shovels!

Yes sir, it has! The CMC is very similar too! The 12Z WRF looks really good for northeast Texas.

[Portastorm]

Latest info from NWS Fort Worth suggests "a brief period of light snow" in the afternoon tomorrow for the DFW area. Areas to the north and northeast, however, of the DFW metroplex should see more wintry "fun."

[Ntxw]

Hey Portastorm, it's time for PWC to put out numbers so we can use it against you later Where's that briefing? It's Christmas eve after all!

[Portastorm]

Hey Portastorm, it's time for PWC to put out numbers so we can use it against you later Where's that briefing? It's Christmas eve after all!

Funny you should mention that ... the PWC will be holding a press briefing early this evening. Between now and then, the lead Grey Goose-swilling met at the PWC will be carrying out mission tasking from his chief financial officer (aka "she who must be obeyed").

[DonWrk]

How are the models still showing pretty much the same as before the actual system has been sampled by the balloons? Shouldn't it be somewhat different with the new data?

Not necessarily. This morning there are still subtle differences between the GFS, Euro, and NAM. But all three are in the same ballpark per se with the track of the system. It could be that they captured the atmosphere well enough in advance that drastic differences or changes were not necessary. Data is constantly being ingested into these models. For example, even though RAOBs with the system coming into the Pacific coast hadn't been launched yet, commercial aircraft data (pilot reports, winds, etc.) on the system was being ingested into the models. It's a gradual process and not an either/or.

From my non-emotionally invested seat, DFW getting snow out of this system was always an outside chance anyhow. Some flurries? Yeah. Accumulating snow? No. There were some model runs which showed the latter but that was not the majority.

Anyhow, keep the faith ... lots more winter to go. If you see some flurries tomorrow, consider yourself lucky. Most of us won't.

I live about 25 minutes from the Red River and even from a week ago I've had this gut feeling of 4-6 inches, mainly for just north of the Red River but I would be pretty disappointed not to see some here. I still think a lot of changes will come with the system I just hope they are for the better and not worse!

[horselattitudesfarm]

12Z GFS is close to 00Z Euro in the snow placement. D-FW east through Tyler/Longview on the edge of the snow.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

I love to see the Rockies getting all that snow. It was tough hiking up there last summer without much snowmelt to get water from.

[Ntxw]

Big front is clearing through Kansas, and the leading edge off the high plains is entering the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 18Z NAM is slightly further south too!

[Ntxw]

We are also now in the realm of the RAP. It is digging it a little deeper trough than the NAM

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

We are also now in the realm of the RAP. It is digging it a little deeper trough than the NAM

http://i50.tinypic.com/25gghsx.gif

Um, yeah; it's digging deeper than the NAM.

[dhweather]

We can all wish for snow, but I just don't see it happening in the metroplex. Along with wxman57, I completely agree that if it's gonna be that freaking cold, it BETTER snow. But my gut just tells me that like so many other systems in the last few years, the vast majority of the energy will track along or north of the Red River. Even if it takes an I-30 track, we will quickly be in the dry wedge. We're in severe drought for a reason, and storms not tracking through here is a big one.

A lot can still happen, but I'm not counting on it.


As always, for official weather forecasts, please consult the NWS.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Latest from the Fort Worth NWS.
http://imageshack.us/f/255/snowg.gif/