Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

This type of front generally doesn't move quickly during the day due to warm air eroding the leading edge. It'll move faster at night.

It wasn't even supposed to be moving right now. WPC originally had it stationary in north-central Kansas at 18z. Front has entered my CWA. Salina and Russell turned northwest a bit ago, but I waited for the hourly ob to come out to make sure. Great Bend turned WNW as well. Won't take long for that front to clear the CWA once it starts gaining speed again.

Lyons, KS is next to get the cold front, the front appears to have cleared KS-156 (Highway 156 in Kansas) & US-56 from Great Bend to near Larned.

Dodge City has yet to get North Winds as well

Lyons is reporting West Winds right now (Updated at 12:15 PM)

[rwfromkansas]

This type of front generally doesn't move quickly during the day due to warm air eroding the leading edge. It'll move faster at night.

It wasn't even supposed to be moving right now. WPC originally had it stationary in north-central Kansas at 18z. Front has entered my CWA. Salina and Russell turned northwest a bit ago, but I waited for the hourly ob to come out to make sure. Great Bend turned WNW as well. Won't take long for that front to clear the CWA once it starts gaining speed again.

Lyons, KS is next to get the cold front, the front appears to have cleared KS-156 (Highway 156 in Kansas) & US-56 from Great Bend to near Larned.

Dodge City has yet to get North Winds as well

It's approaching Sterling, Kansas, where I went to college. So, it's doing decently. I think we will at least get nice and cold here. Am following the storm a lot for it being north.

[txtwister78]

Euro definitely starting to fall in line with GFS and CMC regarding the arctic blast for late next wk.

img]https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/t2m_c_anom/1640952000/1641513600-HhUGe2sabEk.png[/img]

[txtwister78]

Euro definitely starting to fall in line with GFS and CMC regarding the arctic blast for late next wk.

[orangeblood]

Contrary to what the Heat Miser's warm tinted glasses are telling him....models are depicting a MAJOR pattern change coming up for the month of January 2022.

To illustrate this, this is what the 500mb pattern has looked like over North America the past 3 weeks



Here is what week 2 looks like on the GFS Ensembles



Almost the Polar Opposite...Ridge/Troughs flipped. I believe the Heat Miser is currently in the denial stage of what is coming!!!!

[Ntxw]

Contrary to what the Heat Miser's warm tinted glasses are telling him....models are depicting a MAJOR pattern change coming up for the month of January 2022.

To illustrate this, this is what the 500mb pattern has looked like over North America the past 3 weeks

https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/composites/compday.xjt54WAk6Z.gif

Here is what week 2 looks like on the GFS Ensembles

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom_5day/1640952000/1642334400-gKHDMYYlUBc.png

Almost the Polar Opposite...Ridge/Troughs flipped. I believe the Heat Miser is currently in the denial stage of what is coming!!!!

What I see on that map is a lot of shallow air masses and strong HP. It's a good delivery pattern for what cold is up there. 500mb may seem warm but it doesn't show the lower level nuances as well disturbances in the southern flow coming out of the west. If Canada wasn't already cold then it could be a mild pattern, but this year that isn't the case.

[orangeblood]

Contrary to what the Heat Miser's warm tinted glasses are telling him....models are depicting a MAJOR pattern change coming up for the month of January 2022.

To illustrate this, this is what the 500mb pattern has looked like over North America the past 3 weeks

https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/composites/compday.xjt54WAk6Z.gif

Here is what week 2 looks like on the GFS Ensembles

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom_5day/1640952000/1642334400-gKHDMYYlUBc.png

Almost the Polar Opposite...Ridge/Troughs flipped. I believe the Heat Miser is currently in the denial stage of what is coming!!!!

What I see on that map is a lot of shallow air masses and strong HP. It's a good delivery pattern for what cold is up there. 500mb may seem warm but it doesn't show the lower level nuances as well disturbances in the southern flow coming out of the west. If Canada wasn't already cold then it could be a mild pattern, but this year that isn't the case.

Regardless of the magnitude of the cold, this is a MAJOR pattern change from December....upper level 500mb flow coming out of the Northwest instead of the warm/dry Southwest in December

[wxman57]

I see SOME cold air moving south over the next couple of weeks, but most cold slips off to the east. 12Z Euro has temps 1-2 deg colder in Houston with next week's front, maybe the first light freeze of the year for Houston.

[orangeblood]

I see SOME cold air moving south over the next couple of weeks, but most cold slips off to the east. 12Z Euro has temps 1-2 deg colder in Houston with next week's front, maybe the first light freeze of the year for Houston.

Front 1 & Front 2 both Bulleyes for Southern Plains, No ??

[Cpv17]

With the PNA going towards neutral, the heart of that cold should spill down towards the southern plains.

[txtwister78]

These wind chill readings with the upcoming arctic front are certainly worthy of attention. After a month of blowtorch, no question this is going to remind folks that winter is far from being over in TX.

[harp]

But, alas, it looks mostly dry for Texas and Louisiana. Am I missing something?

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t know if the NAM is overdoing it, but it seems like the environment it depicts tonight would warrant a southwest expansion of the slight risk severe area

[orangeblood]

But, alas, it looks mostly dry for Texas and Louisiana. Am I missing something?

Cold is the first and most important ingredient IMO

[Cpv17]

But, alas, it looks mostly dry for Texas and Louisiana. Am I missing something?

Cold is the first and most important ingredient IMO

I agree. Always have to get the cold first and worry about the precip part later.

[Brent]

But, alas, it looks mostly dry for Texas and Louisiana. Am I missing something?

Cold is the first and most important ingredient IMO

Exactly. We were never gonna see anything with the torch also it doesn't take as much precip to get snow either as we may see with the wave Saturday Night into Sunday up here. I'd much rather have this problem than the usual it's too warm problem

[InfernoFlameCat]

I wonder if we will see a repeat of last winter. The models kept showing something big and it never came. Until it did and Texas became the attic.

[Brent]

I wonder if we will see a repeat of last winter. The models kept showing something big and it never came. Until it did and Texas became the attic.

I mean to be totally honest February is usually the peak of winter around here. January is hit and miss

I dont really expect something on the scale of February but La Nina does favor extremes... And we've certainly seen the warm side of that lately

[TheProfessor]

Just woke up from a nap. I see the the front has moved south another row of counties and Salina and Russell are starting to get into the colder air. We actually busted high here in Wichita and other parts of south-central Kansas. Good ole compressional heating and maybe a bit of downsloping for areas that have WNW winds.

[txtwister78]

I wonder if we will see a repeat of last winter. The models kept showing something big and it never came. Until it did and Texas became the attic.

In terms of overall impact (snow and intense prolonged cold), that event last Feb was a generational type of event. Not suggesting obviously that we can't get cold or winter precip, but a lot has to come into play for that type of scenario (similar to Feb 2021) to occur in my opinion.