Texas Winter 2012-2013

[aggiecutter]

Snowfall projections from the latest EURO. Looks like I might have to go out and buy a snow shovel.

http://ow.ly/i/1icEx/original

[Ntxw]

We can all wish for snow, but I just don't see it happening in the metroplex. Along with wxman57, I completely agree that if it's gonna be that freaking cold, it BETTER snow. But my gut just tells me that like so many other systems in the last few years, the vast majority of the energy will track along or north of the Red River. Even if it takes an I-30 track, we will quickly be in the dry wedge. We're in severe drought for a reason, and storms not tracking through here is a big one. .

Wish with some model support, still makes for a great discussion. Where do you see all the energy above the Red River? Every model show wind vorticity in Texas if not below I-20. The best moisture source is also below the Red River, only differences between them is cold air location.

Most models also forecast at least 0.50+ inches of liquid gold, I'm not one to complain about that.

[Ntxw]

Snowfall projections from the latest EURO. Looks like I might have to go out and buy a snow shovel.

http://ow.ly/i/1icEx/original

You better give us lots of pictures of those Texas-sized snowmen!

Edit:
Using the GFS and 10:1 ratio (which I think is likely since it's a very deep cold air mass) this is what one gets from the 12z

[GaryHughes]

A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW...AS MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20... WITH AREAS NORTH HIGHWAY 380 SEEING THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A BOWIE...DENTON...EMORY LINE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.
Source : NWS FW
IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBLE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH...VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WINTER STORM...ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BY CHRISTMAS EVENING. WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ICY ROADS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE ANY SNOWFALL OCCURS AND MOISTURE REFREEZES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED SOUTH AND EAST OF A

[Tireman4]

You know..just a scant 200 more or so miles south and Houston could have some...lol....

[MSUDawg]

Snowfall projections from the latest EURO. Looks like I might have to go out and buy a snow shovel.

http://ow.ly/i/1icEx/original

You better give us lots of pictures of those Texas-sized snowmen!

Edit:
Using the GFS and 10:1 ratio (which I think is likely since it's a very deep cold air mass) this is what one gets from the 12z

http://i47.tinypic.com/xqcen5.png

That purple line border is right on my Apts south of the DFW Airport right on the Tarrant/Dallas Line.. Come on White stuff!!!

[wxman57]

Here's the 12Z Euro 24hr snow accumulations. Values are in millimeters liquid. 25mm = about 1" = about 10" snow. 5mm = about 2". It has the 1mm line over D-FW, which is under 1/2". Of course, these forecasts are far from precise.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I am not an expert, but it seems this system, both the front and the ULL, will be moving into much cooler air than expected. At my house in Richardson, temps stayed in the 40s and the dew point is 28. I think the changeover from rain to snow will be quicker because of that. Just a hunch and a wish cast.

[Night on the Sun]

Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the counties along the Red River as well as Denton and Collin counties here in north Texas.

[somethingfunny]

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012/
OUR CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT WINTER STORM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK CHRISTMAS. ALTHOUGH TODAY/S MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT TIMING AND TRACKING DIFFERENCES...THE
AGREEMENT AND CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN
AND CONTINUE TO BE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS STORM. THE
500MB CENTER SHOULD TRACK ALONG I-20 BETWEEN ABILENE AND DFW THEN
JUST SOUTH OF I-30 FROM DFW TO TEXARKANA. IF THE TRACK IS 30 MILES
SOUTH OR NORTH OF OUR FORECAST THEN IMPACTS WILL ALSO SHIFT ACCORDINGLY.

LAST NIGHTS FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTH OF HOUSTON TO NEAR SAN ANTONIO
TO AROUND FORT STOCKTON. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT
ALONG THIS FRONT AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE FRONT. WE ARE EXPECTING
A WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL COUNTIES EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD. STRONG
UPPER DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK. HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT BUT DAMAGING WIND CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS FOR TORNADOES...STORMS MOVING OVER THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY AND BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS BY LATE MORNING.

COLD ARCTIC AIR HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND WILL SURGE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE EXITING
SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEST
TO EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 FROM LATE MORNING (NW) THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON (NE). WE STILL EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN
TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY EAST OF A
SHERMAN TO GREENVILLE LINE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW OCCURRED OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND PARIS
WHERE THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS IS MORE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE
WRAP-AROUND BANDING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END OVER THE
NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
COULD TOTAL 4-8 INCHES...AND TRAVEL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER OR INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL BE TREACHEROUS CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
NORTH WINDS BLOW 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40MPH. BLOWING SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE SNOW HAS
OCCURRED. IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALSO ANY MOISTURE
REMAINING ON ROADWAYS CHRISTMAS EVENING WILL FREEZE OVERNIGHT SO
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTERS NEED TO BE ALERT FOR ICY SPOTS.

[Ntxw]

The airport needs at least 0.3 inches of snow to reclaim the most snow title to date from Chicago. Though an inch would help us keep for longer. I hope Portastorm delivers!

[Portastorm]

Breaking News ... Portastorm Weather Center forecasts a White Christmas for the I-20 Corridor; Bright (as in Lightning Bright) Christmas for the I-10 Corridor east of San Antonio

The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center held their first press briefing of the winter season this evening in scenic southwest Travis County. With tensions running high on the Storm2K weather forum as Texans anticipate a plethora of weather from snow to sleet to severe thunderstorms (and possibly a tornado or two), the mets at PWC shared their forecast in a "seasonal" manner.

"Twas the night before Christmas on Storm 2k,
And the members were wondering what PWC would say,
The mets were all snuggled with their bottles of gin,
As Ntxw and iorange55 wondered when their snow would begin,
The lead met he stood and exclaimed with a shout,
There’s a-storm coming let me tell you all about
The models were all scanned with a sharp and close eye,
To see if the front would make Wxman57 cry,
'I see vorticity a-plenty and an 850mb line,
coming close to the Metroplex and just on time,
For the snow will fall on DFW, the met said,
And it all will happen before HockeyTx82 goes to bed,
Now what orangeblood, DonWrk and GraysonCoWx you say?
They too shall see snow and it’ll be on Christmas Day
And the snow will fall more for our friend aggiecutter
In the corner of the state to make hearts all a-flutter
And the storms they shall rage on Tireman and his kin,
for southeast Texas bears the brunt of this nasty winter spin,
Watch the skies the lead met said for a twister may appear,
Santa’s sled will get rocked by a lot of wind shear,
And with that he stopped and winked his bloodshot eye,
Merry Christmas to all, now it’s time for goodbye!”

[DonWrk]

well done!

[Ntxw]

Very well done Portastorm, and here we thought those mets at PWC were too liquored up to brief . Your best work yet!

[HockeyTx82]

Well played! Only problem is what time do I need to be in bed by?

[KatDaddy]

That was awesome Portastorm! Very well done.

[TexasF6]

Porta! You rock! I still want my Christmas snow in the PWC & NW Austin!

[Tireman4]

Oh my Porta. Well done my friend.

[ROCK]

Port that was impressive!! nicely done...

[KatDaddy]

I had to save that post for later days.....its a classic and even brought ROCK out on Christmas Eve. Priceless. Merry Christmas everyone.......now back to weather. On the edge of seeing snow up here N of Ft Worth.