Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1561 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:56 am

The upper air pattern in the long range wants to say “keep reloading”
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1562 Postby orangeblood » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:00 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:The upper air pattern in the long range wants to say “keep reloading”


As Wxman has mentioned, extreme caution needs to be taken this far out....just look at the discrepancies b/w 12Z GFS and Canadian for same time frame. Still wise to keep most weight with ENS, not operational

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1563 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:02 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:The upper air pattern in the long range wants to say “keep reloading”


Yeah I see that too, but it just doesn’t really want to push the coldest anomalies too far south and east. I don’t really buy that though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1564 Postby Portastorm » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:Inches of freezing rain across the Hill Country (12Z GFS) would not be good. Perhaps they would have power restored by spring, though...


I'm coming over to your house if that happens ... ask Mrs. Wxman57 if the guest room will be available over the holidays. I travel light. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1565 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:20 pm

I haven't looked, but how are the source regions for all of our cold air looking? Are they where they need to be?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1566 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:22 pm

Ensemble 500

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1567 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:38 pm

Euro MJO still 7 into 8
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1568 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:46 pm

The Euro and GFS along with their ensembles all agree on a -EPO/-PNA pattern. Canadian does not agree, but I will disregard that for now with the agreement of the Euro and GFS. 12Z Euro running now. I see no reason at all to expect anything besides very cold temps for an extended period along with ongoing shots at precip overrunning the cold starting 12/22.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1569 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:53 pm

NBC 5 just teased with the Christmas pattern looking "cold" and "ice or snow possible in the region"
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1570 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:57 pm

Brent wrote:NBC 5 just teased with the Christmas pattern looking "cold" and "ice or snow possible in the region"

I think we are getting close to the range where the general public needs to be aware that there is a much higher than average chance for winter precip as long as it is emphasised that there is plenty of time for the details to be worked out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1571 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:08 pm

gpsnowman wrote:I haven't looked, but how are the source regions for all of our cold air looking? Are they where they need to be?


There is no source region yet. It's WAY too early. Current temps in western Canada are well above normal. That's on reason why it is way too early to speculate on what cold air might develop up there over the coming week.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1572 Postby orangeblood » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:I haven't looked, but how are the source regions for all of our cold air looking? Are they where they need to be?


There is no source region yet. It's WAY too early. Current temps in western Canada are well above normal. That's on reason why it is way too early to speculate on what cold air might develop up there over the coming week.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... amer_1.png


Source Region is Arctic Circle...that air is forecast to spill southward in less than 3 days, when temps in Western Canada will begin to tank!!

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1573 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:30 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Wow... look at the MJO and the 8 hammer

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif


I am a bit suspicious of that amp. The bias corrected and Euro EPS aren't nearly as enthusiastic.


Still think the GFS is fumbling the MJO and that is resulting in issues with how it's handling the upcoming pattern. Not surprised to see it trend warmer as the mean trough hanging west is more supported by a Phase 7 deamplified back towards the nina background. We will need the through to kick out but if the MJO fails us then we probably see something like this last cold shot as the trough shears out and there is some over running precipitation but not a big storm.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1574 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:32 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Wow... look at the MJO and the 8 hammer

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif


I am a bit suspicious of that amp. The bias corrected and Euro EPS aren't nearly as enthusiastic.


Still think the GFS is fumbling the MJO and that is resulting in issues with how it's handling the upcoming pattern. Not surprised to see it trend warmer as the mean trough hanging west is more supported by a Phase 7 deamplified back towards the nina background. We will need the through to kick out but if the MJO fails us then we probably see something like this last cold shot as the trough shears out and there is some over running precipitation but not a big storm.


Euro MJO shows it going 7 to 8 as well....

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1575 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:37 pm

orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:I haven't looked, but how are the source regions for all of our cold air looking? Are they where they need to be?


There is no source region yet. It's WAY too early. Current temps in western Canada are well above normal. That's on reason why it is way too early to speculate on what cold air might develop up there over the coming week.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... amer_1.png


Source Region is Arctic Circle...that air is forecast to spill southward in less than 3 days, when temps in Western Canada will begin to tank!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... hem_21.png


There's no cold air in the Arctic Circle now, though. The graphic you posted is a 5-day forecast. GFS says the source region will be northern British Columbia, though. Six days from now "our" cold air is developing across British Columbia:

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1576 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:37 pm

Euro has a trough digging over the Rockies at 168, really close to the GFS pattern

at 192 cold flooding into Texas...

DFW in the 70s Thursday and near freezing Friday morning
Last edited by Brent on Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1577 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:44 pm

Big change on Euro

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1578 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:48 pm

how big of a change?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1579 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:49 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1580 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:49 pm

Euro 216 hours the cold has cleared the coast, SE ridge getting wiped out

Massive change

Its not as cold as the GFS but it took a big step towards it since the last run wasnt even really cold here
Last edited by Brent on Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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