Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ralph's Weather]

The mid week next week storm is interesting with lots of potential but just too far out for me to have any confidence, I think someone in Texas will cash in but that's as much as I know.3
First we have to deal with the initial system Sunday, right now models are focused on an I-40 track and a sub 1000mb low. this would mean strong storms for East and SE TX with significant ice in S MO and and wrap around snow for N OK and KS. If the low is weaker I would expect precip to be less intense but more widespread and further south with the freeze line.
By Thu we should start to get a better idea on the first storm, the storm doesn't come ashore until Friday night. For the mid week storm I would wait on nailing down any details until after the first storm passes for now watch for ensemble trends.

[Ralph's Weather]

Yeah i dont see that canadian verifying lol

I agree, we need that storm to dig SW but can't have it cut off and meander under the -EPO ridge. Cutting off like that seems very unlikely and I would expect it to eject at some point mid week. Still so many factors to resolve on that storm.

[Stratton23]

Very potent winter storm for central and se texas on the 12z Euro

[Harp.1]

Very potent winter storm for central and se texas on the 12z Euro

Louisiana?

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 nasty ice storm for southern half of louisiana

[bubba hotep]

The mid week next week storm is interesting with lots of potential but just too far out for me to have any confidence, I think someone in Texas will cash in but that's as much as I know.3
First we have to deal with the initial system Sunday, right now models are focused on an I-40 track and a sub 1000mb low. this would mean strong storms for East and SE TX with significant ice in S MO and and wrap around snow for N OK and KS. If the low is weaker I would expect precip to be less intense but more widespread and further south with the freeze line.
By Thu we should start to get a better idea on the first storm, the storm doesn't come ashore until Friday night. For the mid week storm I would wait on nailing down any details until after the first storm passes for now watch for ensemble trends.

Agree. So far, the 12z runs continue the same msg, a pattern supportive of Southern Plains winter wx, but there is too much noise (even in ensembles) to tease anything out.

[Harp.1]

Harp.1 nasty ice storm for southern half of louisiana

Noooo!!!!

[Ntxw]

500mb on Euro has TPV coming down into the upper midwest. If taken on the run the main system is not likely to come out as fast or much.

[aggiecutter]

[Stratton23]

Ntxw im assuming that could lead to a multi day event potentially like what the euro shows with a very slow moving system

[Ntxw]

Ntxw im assuming that could lead to a multi day event potentially like what the euro shows with a very slow moving system

It could be yeah, but it also opens up pathway for it to cutoff idea that's been floating. Constant SW flow disconnected leads to warming from SW flow. Still way out, and clearly there's different ways this can work and also not work as well. It needs to still come out faster though, too slow and you erode the cold layer.

[Harp.1]

500mb on Euro has TPV coming down into the upper midwest. If taken on the run the main system is not likely to come out as fast or much.

Can you explain this please? Much appreciated, thanks.

[losf1981]

Winter/fall weather has been depressing in WF so far, so I haven't really been on the site. What did I miss?!?!

[Ntxw]

500mb on Euro has TPV coming down into the upper midwest. If taken on the run the main system is not likely to come out as fast or much.

Can you explain this please? Much appreciated, thanks.

When you have a strong lobe of tropospheric polar vortex moving into the US, it's like a buzzsaw that shreds storms around it.

It's 5 different solutions on 5 different models between the UKMET, ICON, CMC, GFS, and Euro.

[Iceresistance]

500mb on Euro has TPV coming down into the upper midwest. If taken on the run the main system is not likely to come out as fast or much.

Can you explain this please? Much appreciated, thanks.

When you have a strong lobe of tropospheric polar vortex moving into the US, it's like a buzzsaw that shreds storms around it.

It's 5 different solutions on 5 different models between the UKMET, ICON, CMC, GFS, and Euro.

There is way too much uncertainty on where the TPV will go on the models. I am sticking with the ensembles for now.

What is certain tho is the extreme cold

[orangeblood]

Ntxw im assuming that could lead to a multi day event potentially like what the euro shows with a very slow moving system

It could be yeah, but it also opens up pathway for it to cutoff idea that's been floating. Constant SW flow disconnected leads to warming from SW flow. Still way out, and clearly there's different ways this can work and also not work as well. It needs to still come out faster though, too slow and you erode the cold layer.

With this type of consistent NW flow, I’ll take my chances with hanging energy back across the SW. should get plenty of reinforcing Arctic HPs to undercut the SW flow aloft .

do not want an extreme PV overtaking this NA pattern. Gulf coast residents do but the rest of us do not

[Ntxw]

Ntxw im assuming that could lead to a multi day event potentially like what the euro shows with a very slow moving system

It could be yeah, but it also opens up pathway for it to cutoff idea that's been floating. Constant SW flow disconnected leads to warming from SW flow. Still way out, and clearly there's different ways this can work and also not work as well. It needs to still come out faster though, too slow and you erode the cold layer.

With this type of consistent NW flow, I’ll take my chances with hanging energy back across the SW. should get plenty of reinforcing Arctic HPs to undercut the SW flow aloft .

do not want an extreme PV overtaking this NA pattern. Gulf coast residents do but the rest of us do not

Oh yes! We take these precursors 10x everyday. Cold first, trough out west. Brent's storm doesn't even hit the coast until Friday, no less our potential system after. It's a long way out to go and by no means is this how it will play out. Just looking 500mb trends.

[Ralph's Weather]

With this type of consistent NW flow, I’ll take my chances with hanging energy back across the SW. should get plenty of reinforcing Arctic HPs to undercut the SW flow aloft .

do not want an extreme PV overtaking this NA pattern. Gulf coast residents do but the rest of us do not

This is my hope, PV keeps HPs flowing down its backside and SW flow keeps moisture flowing above the cold surface HP which NW flow disturbances can take advantage of. This is not a fool proof setup but as long as the SW trough stays open then I like our chances. This is too messy for globals to resolve at range though so we will continue to see wild swings in Op runs.

[snownado]

Not only will this December be a top 3 warmest for DFW (surprising considering how milquetoast the month started and no real extreme warmth), it should also be good enough for 2024 to tie the warmest yeard on record with average temperature of 69.8*F (the previous record was set in 2017).

Should also add:

All top 5 of the warmest years on record will now have been since 2010 years (2024, 2017, 2023, 2016 and 2012).

[txtwister78]

Operationals continue to look interesting but ensembles (in particular latest 12z EPS) leave the door wide open for a swing and a miss in terms of impactful cold/winter weather.

Just feel like the positive PNA signal is going to be the fly in the ointment again and therfore keep the coldest weather east. Ensembles seem to align with that compared to their operationals