Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Golfisnoteasy75]

This is significant. This WWB/MJO progression is huge. Both seasonally and for 2026, I'm optimistic we may shift the base climate state from the -PDO.

https://i.imgur.com/6zCcDII.png

The WCS keeps up with the daily pdo. In case anyone wanted to know. Are you referring to possibility of salvaging rest of winter with possible colder outcomes?

[Ntxw]

This is significant. This WWB/MJO progression is huge. Both seasonally and for 2026, I'm optimistic we may shift the base climate state from the -PDO.

https://i.imgur.com/6zCcDII.png

The WCS keeps up with the daily pdo. In case anyone wanted to know. Are you referring to possibility of salvaging rest of winter with possible colder outcomes?

A coherent MJO moving through 6-7 is primed for us. Feb 2021 and Feb last year (coldest air both seasons) the MJO was doing the same thing. We don't do well in the null. It's a real MJO wave and not split forcing.

[orangeblood]

This is significant. This WWB/MJO progression is huge. Both seasonally and for 2026, I'm optimistic we may shift the base climate state from the -PDO.

https://i.imgur.com/6zCcDII.png

The WCS keeps up with the daily pdo. In case anyone wanted to know. Are you referring to possibility of salvaging rest of winter with possible colder outcomes?

A coherent MJO moving through 6-7 is primed for us. Feb 2021 and Feb last year (coldest air both seasons) the MJO was doing the same thing. We don't do well in the null. It's a real MJO wave and not split forcing.

https://i.imgur.com/boyZ78m.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ZYDNfwc.gif

Jan 1979

[TomballEd]

Looks like Houston is going to get 5" of snow on the 21st. Up to 16 inches of snow across south Louisiana and nearly 20 inches across southern Mississippi. Sorry DFW folks, no snow for you! I'm hogging it all for myself.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=scus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2026010712&fh=276

I'd be totally cool with a sleet storm that cancelled school for a day. 2 weeks out, lets lock it in.

[Stratton23]

The 17-19th time frame is beginning to get my interest, GFS gets close to a winter storm across the state, upper low digging out in arionza moving slowly east with cold air in place over the state, looks like several days of overunning very cold rain with some freezing rain mixed in, yuckkkk

[Harp.1]

Ice storm gone for now

[Brent]

I wouldn't get caught up in the individual runs. They aren't gonna figure out anything

The reason for the optimism is how active and stormy the pattern looks with the cold air slowly getting more involved as we go along

Also it's probably been mentioned but La Nina is falling apart rapidly

[Golfisnoteasy75]

I wouldn't get caught up in the individual runs. They aren't gonna figure out anything

The reason for the optimism is how active and stormy the pattern looks with the cold air slowly getting more involved as we go along

Also it's probably been mentioned but La Nina is falling apart rapidly

The 12zeps was almost ideal for a major cold blast heading south if I read it correctly lol. Typically if a cold pattern is legit, it will move up in time and not get pushed back.

[Brent]

I wouldn't get caught up in the individual runs. They aren't gonna figure out anything

The reason for the optimism is how active and stormy the pattern looks with the cold air slowly getting more involved as we go along

Also it's probably been mentioned but La Nina is falling apart rapidly

The 12zeps was almost ideal for a major cold blast heading south if I read it correctly lol. Typically if a cold pattern is legit, it will move up in time and not get pushed back.

It's coming man... We just gotta relax winter has just started

In the meantime I'm ready for some rain and thunderstorms tomorrow. That'll be a big story with how it's been lately

Also what I'm noticing is no more 70s after this up here... They've been coming back each front. We're beginning the step down

[snownado]

DFW made it to 80*F today, although still a few degrees shy of the record (83*F).

[bubba hotep]

This is significant. This WWB/MJO progression is huge. Both seasonally and for 2026, I'm optimistic we may shift the base climate state from the -PDO.

https://i.imgur.com/6zCcDII.png

I posted way back when that these Nina to Nino tranistions winters can be pretty rough if you like cold weather. However, I'm not sure there are any good analogs in the modern record for this recent collapse. We can probably toss all the traditional analogs at this point, which allows you to play with Jan-Feb of years like 2008, 2014, 2021.

[Quixotic]

This is significant. This WWB/MJO progression is huge. Both seasonally and for 2026, I'm optimistic we may shift the base climate state from the -PDO.

https://i.imgur.com/6zCcDII.png

I posted way back when that these Nina to Nino tranistions winters can be pretty rough if you like cold weather. However, I'm not sure there are any good analogs in the modern record for this recent collapse. We can probably toss all the traditional analogs at this point, which allows you to play with Jan-Feb of years like 2008, 2014, 2021.

Two years with similar sensible results (14/21) and one that gave us a couple of quick hitters towards the end of February into March. I’d take 14. Multiple cold blasts with light snow over the crushing 21. 08 was unique in how warm it was before and after violent thundersnows.

[Brent]

First severe warning from Norman in January since...

Wait for it...

2021

[Iceresistance]

MJO is looking good again


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bh6Xz.png

[HockeyTx82]

First severe warning from Norman in January since...

Wait for it...

2021

I'm fine with cold, but no power was not fun.

[cycloneye]

This is significant. This WWB/MJO progression is huge. Both seasonally and for 2026, I'm optimistic we may shift the base climate state from the -PDO.

https://i.imgur.com/6zCcDII.png

Get more information about this and other details about how ENSO is doing at the 2026 ENSO Updates thread at talking tropics forum.

[cstrunk]

69F/63F at 8 am on January 8th is dumb. I'd live with it if we had a chance at some decent storms, but anything exciting looks to stay well north and east of here.

[Ntxw]

69F/63F at 8 am on January 8th is dumb. I'd live with it if we had a chance at some decent storms, but anything exciting looks to stay well north and east of here.

Yeah the amount of warmth relative to normal has been absurd. I'm ok with highs being mild but not cooling off to 'cold' at night in winter is the brutality. It's literally early and late summer night temps..not even hyperbole. Luckily today is the last in a good while, good riddance.

[snownado]

69F/63F at 8 am on January 8th is dumb. I'd live with it if we had a chance at some decent storms, but anything exciting looks to stay well north and east of here.

Yeah the amount of warmth relative to normal has been absurd. I'm ok with highs being mild but not cooling off to 'cold' at night in winter is the brutality. It's literally early and late summer night temps..not even hyperbole. Luckily today is the last in a good while, good riddance.

The attached map from IEM says it all...

https://imgur.com/a/DOCqTWD

[HockeyTx82]

Looks like I picked up .02" with the line that passed through Ponder just now.