Texas Winter 2021-2022

[wxman57]

We're on pace here in Houston for a very late first freeze (or maybe no freeze?). The data I have for Bush Airport only goes back to 1969, but only in two years was the first freeze after Dec 31 (Day 365). In 1986, the first freeze was on day 369 (Jan 4) in 1971, on day 370 (Jan 5), and in 1994, the first freeze was on Jan 2 (day 367). I remember 1986 very well. It was the perfect winter. Sunny and warm all winter. By February, we started getting highs in the 90s! I went swimming in February at my apartment's pool. I don't know if we'll make it all the way past January without a freeze, but that would be nice. 90s in February would be great, too! Looks like only glancing blows of cold air for SE TX the next couple of weeks.

Keep that cold air up north. We're going for a New Year's bike ride today. Temperature should hit a record high of 82-84 degrees. Record is 81.

[TheProfessor]

12z TOP sounding still had a small warm nose, so we'll likely be dealing with sleet here. Will have to see if we'll get the snow showers later this evening that the HRRR shows. Could be one of those situations where 0.1" of QPF turns into 2" due to high ratios.

[Ralph's Weather]

The freezing line is currently near the I-44 corridor and back to north of Lubbock. The front is 50 or so miles ahead of the dirt range models. It is also 5 to 10 degrees colder than modeled north of the front in Kansas. Chance for flurries tomorrow is mostly gone on models but with 20 degree air temps I wouldn't be shocked to see the wave squeeze something out.

[TheProfessor]

Seems to be a sleet/graupel/snow mix right now. Bit of a shame, would be some appreciable snows if the mid levels were just a little cooler. As expected everything is accumulating quickly. Cars are coated in ice already. Glad I don't have to travel.

[TheProfessor]

Never seen sleet like this before. Almost like a very dry snow. Doesn't even hurt to get hit by with our winds (I've been nailed by some nasty sleet before while I lived in Ohio). Seeing more flakes mix in. Again it's the dry powdery kind. Down to 17 degrees here. Even seeing snow/ice accumulating on top of water now.

[TheProfessor]

And we've moved to all snow! It's accumulating pretty quickly. Wouldn't surprise me if places like Hutchinson and McPherson get close to 4" with them having all snow on radar and more precip.

[TheProfessor]

Whoever gets under these lobes of upper level energy is going to get some decent snow. It's going to be one of those events where radar doesn't tell the whole story due to how dry the snow will be. I'll be looking at the RAP to see where energies look to track.

[drred4]

Yesterday here I saw Indian blankets and paintbrushes in bloom on side of road. They are going to be in a for a sad surprise by later this evening. Need some more chill time for my fruit trees. Happy new year!!

[orangeblood]

CFSv2 going all-in for January Cold, the biggest key difference between it and the other models is it’s aggressive MJO swing through 8-1-2.

[HockeyTx82]

So is this front a blue norther? Not often we get day time frontal passages. Happy New Year!

[HockeyTx82]

My weather station has a N to NW wind 18 MPH. Is the front already here?

I think it was just a gust front or something.....

Had an alarm set for wind direction and speed

[Cpv17]

Man, that’s quite the front showing up on the 6z GFS at day 9. The air with these fronts seem to be moderating quite a bit though. That needs to change.

[harp]

Man, that’s quite the front showing up on the 6z GFS at day 9. The air with these fronts seem to be moderating quite a bit though. That needs to change.

No snow pack.

[Cpv17]

Man, that’s quite the front showing up on the 6z GFS at day 9. The air with these fronts seem to be moderating quite a bit though. That needs to change.

No snow pack.

Yep. Hard to get moisture in a La Niña. Need a good snow pack over the central plains.

[Iceresistance]

Winter Weather Advisory for OKC metro until Noon for Ice.

[gpsnowman]

I am so ready for this disgusting swampy humidity to get flushed the hell out of here.

[orangeblood]

Something to note re: Model performance….The CMC nailed this cold outbreak from over 200 plus hrs out while GFS and Euro were way behind playing catch up. Not a coincidence, at this point, that the same trend happened for the Big Feb 2021 Outbreak as well. It clearly has a much better handle on low level Dense Cold over the other models

CMC forecast from last weekend for tomorrow morning


GFS during same time frame

[harp]

^^^^Interesting observation.

[gpsnowman]

31 degrees in Norman OK
56 degrees in Ardmore OK, a 90 mile difference

[Ralph's Weather]

Something to note re: Model performance….The CMC nailed this cold outbreak from over 200 plus hrs out while GFS and Euro were way behind playing catch up. Not a coincidence, at this point, that the same trend happened for the Big Feb 2021 Outbreak as well. It clearly has a much better handle on low level Dense Cold over the other models

CMC forecast from last weekend for tomorrow morning
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021122500/gem_T2m_scus_35.png

GFS during same time frame
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021122512/gfs_T2m_scus_33.png

CMC has been the best in these situations as far as low level temps for a long time. GFS is decent but it fails to catch how fast the cold moves. Euro does not handle low level cold well at all.