Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

And the GFS continues to struggle mightly

It does try to get there though. It's below freezing in Oklahoma Friday and holds it for a little while, the overrunning system is on it causing the issues. It waits for it to come through before sending more cold (though I don't think it's cold enough.)

In essence all the models are converging on the same idea. A bitter cold air mass will pool in along the Rockies. How they discern the TPV orientation and what vorticity pieces opens the gates is the difference.

What's your thought on the orientation?

I like the ICON's initial handling. -PNA supports a westward lean at the start and a pivot. GFS strings it out too fast because it wants to transfer the vorticity into the Atlantic which with a block, not favoring it. In terms of cold push, the ICON too started the faster trend and the others have followed the past several days.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It does try to get there though. It's below freezing in Oklahoma Friday and holds it for a little while, the overrunning system is on it causing the issues. It waits for it to come through before sending more cold (though I don't think it's cold enough.)

In essence all the models are converging on the same idea. A bitter cold air mass will pool in along the Rockies. How they discern the TPV orientation and what vorticity pieces opens the gates is the difference.

What's your thought on the orientation?

I like the ICON's initial handling. -PNA supports a westward lean at the start and a pivot. GFS strings it out too fast because it wants to transfer the vorticity into the Atlantic which with a block, not favoring it. In terms of cold push, the ICON too started the faster trend and the others have followed the past several days.

as


Great to hear. I’ve been trading on the ICON output.

That new kid on the block does well with Winter airmasses.

[Stratton23]

growing support on the 18z GEFS for a winter storm

[Tammie]

growing support on the 18z GEFS for a winter storm

What time frame for north Texas?

[Stratton23]

Tammie the 15-16th ish

[Sambucol]

growing support on the 18z GEFS for a winter storm

Does that include SETX? If so, what is the timeframe for that?

[Stratton23]

sambucol some members do show se texas in play, time frame 15-16th ish

[Cpv17]

growing support on the 18z GEFS for a winter storm

Does that include SETX? If so, what is the timeframe for that?

Looks like some moisture from the Gulf and Pacific could be thrown into the cold air. Definitely beginning to look more interesting.

[bubba hotep]

Blizzard Warnings out for portions of the Panhandles

[aggiecutter]

18Z GFS has Dallas down to 17 early next week. Of course, that is probably too warm.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such

[WacoWx]

1/16, Iphone weather app has a high of 28, low of 17 in Dallas

[Brent]

DFW on the ensembles

Next Sunday is the coldest 19/38 on the GEFS mean 24/38 on the EPS mean

Got a long way to go if we're gonna get into big time cold

[CaptinCrunch]

Nothing matters till we get into next weekend and 72 hrs out.

All current models are just fun eye candy....

[HockeyTx82]

Nothing matters till we get into next weekend and 72 hrs out.

All current models are just fun eye candy....

It's January and it gets cold......

Us amateur enthusiasts know nothing about reality.

Leave the real forecasting up to professionals

[Cpv17]

Nothing matters till we get into next weekend and 72 hrs out.

All current models are just fun eye candy....

It's January and it gets cold......

Us amateur enthusiasts know nothing about reality.

Leave the real forecasting up to professionals

Ummm, there’s some on here that I trust way more than some mets out there. To each their own but I can make my own forecast without even relying on a met.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Not sure of the entire reaction or what it would do to other dynamics of the pattern, but i think the GFS is progressing the main core of the cold east too quickly. Its running it straight into the block, which is now sticking around longer than before, and I think the core of the cold will hang around near the Minnesota/Iowa area much longer than its showing.
Just checked the CMC, i think what the CMC is showing is what i think will happen. It wont move to the east as quickly if we have strong blocking near Greenland.

[HockeyTx82]

Nothing matters till we get into next weekend and 72 hrs out.

All current models are just fun eye candy....

It's January and it gets cold......

Us amateur enthusiasts know nothing about reality.

Leave the real forecasting up to professionals

Ummm, there’s some on here that I trust way more than some mets out there. To each their own but I can make my own forecast without even relying on a met.

I was being pretentious about what the Fox 4 met said.

[Cpv17]

It's January and it gets cold......

Us amateur enthusiasts know nothing about reality.

Leave the real forecasting up to professionals

Ummm, there’s some on here that I trust way more than some mets out there. To each their own but I can make my own forecast without even relying on a met.

I was being pretentious about what the Fox 4 met said.

Gotcha lol I’ve seen some not so good mets out there before. I have a couple that I like but there’s a decent amount I don’t trust.

[Stratton23]

00z ICON is much colder than its 12z run

[Ntxw]

00z ICON is much colder than its 12z run

It's slower than 12z, but there is a bigger HP so this run will likely be very cold.