Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

69F/63F at 8 am on January 8th is dumb. I'd live with it if we had a chance at some decent storms, but anything exciting looks to stay well north and east of here.

Yeah the amount of warmth relative to normal has been absurd. I'm ok with highs being mild but not cooling off to 'cold' at night in winter is the brutality. It's literally early and late summer night temps..not even hyperbole. Luckily today is the last in a good while, good riddance.

I've lost count with how many record highs we've had here

I know we had 5 straight Christmas week including several all time monthly but yeah the mornings have been even crazier to me. In the 60s so many times

Good riddance indeed

[mmmmsnouts]

Very good, this rain band missed my house completely. Guess we’ll see what happens the next time it rains, a month or so from now.

[Wthrfan]

First rainfall since December 4th in Edmond. Only had 0.09 in December...decent little rain.

[Stratton23]

MJO rotation looking a lot better today, good agreement on a strong rotation into P7 by january 22nd or so

[rwfromkansas]

MJO is looking good again

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bh6Xz.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bh6Xz.png

Are we currently in the blue part? I never can figure it out. Also, it shows it in the black part already having gone through 7 and 8 etc. It didn't, so I'm a little confused.

[Stratton23]

no we are current in the null phase where those red colors are , those, we then briefly going into P6 before a much stronger rotation into P7, things are looking better today in regards to the MJO

[Quixotic]

Gimme some amplitude in phases 8,1 & 2. Thanks.

[wxman22]

Got some much needed rain this morning. Looks like Norman should have issued a wind advisory, winds have been gusting to 50 mph due to cyclogenesis.

[TomballEd]

I just want rain. Most models suggests tomorrow's front will not cause much rain.

[Stratton23]

Newly updated MJO forecast from the GEFS/ EPS show a faster rotation into P7 and less time in phase 6

[Ntxw]

The only blemish is that the ens are trying to hold on to the west/sw ridge, which they had troughs not long ago. I am dubbing this the great cockroach ridge of winter (summer DJF!) 2025-2026, this thing has been unrelenting. Not only is it the catalyst for warmth, but been drying the atmosphere too. Hope to never see this again in my lifetime.

[Stratton23]

Really hoping the MJO provides a spark now that its finally going to be on the move, because todays ensemble runs are nothing short of dogsh**

[Ntxw]

Really hoping the MJO provides a spark now that its finally going to be on the move, because todays ensemble runs are nothing short of dogsh**

Hang in there my friend, lets hope the MJO movement will clear it up once it actually gets into P7. But in the mean time, we get about 3 days reprieve to near normal, then it's above normal again next week which is mid month.

DFW hits 80F+ again as I type this for the 9th time this winter

[Stratton23]

Ntxw Hope the MJO helps, its just discouraging seeing the ensembles losing the blocking and trending stronger with ridging over the se or SW

[rwfromkansas]

So we may be looking for 28th or later I'm guessing now....

At least the MJO looks better, but frustrating. Just the same old crap.

[Harp.1]

This forum is schizophrenic. Lol!! Yesterday was optimistic, today is doom. I’m not being critical, don’t get me wrong as I get caught up in the same thing!

[rwfromkansas]

This forum is schizophrenic. Lol!! Yesterday was optimistic, today is doom. I’m not being critical, don’t get me wrong as I get caught up in the same thing!

Yeah, it was looking fantastic yesterday.

If the dang ensembles are this flip-floppy we definitely can't even bother to look at regular runs.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Really hoping the MJO provides a spark now that its finally going to be on the move, because todays ensemble runs are nothing short of dogsh**

Hang in there my friend, lets hope the MJO movement will clear it up once it actually gets into P7. But in the mean time, we get about 3 days reprieve to near normal, then it's above normal again next week which is mid month.

DFW hits 80F+ again as I type this for the 9th time this winter

Im kind of surprised we aren't making progress towards a colder pattern to be honest. Especially if the mjo keeps moving

[Stratton23]

I wonder if the MJO temporarily going into P6 is whats causing the “ ugly “ runs today in ensembles, because most of the MJO forecasts im seeing from the GEFS, EPS, EPS extended, CFS all are generally really favorable rotations for cold after the brief p6 stent, i think all the doom and gloom comments on social media about this winter are rattling me now lol

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I wonder if the MJO temporarily going into P6 is whats causing the “ ugly “ runs today in ensembles, because most of the MJO forecasts im seeing from the GEFS, EPS, EPS extended, CFS all are generally really favorable rotations for cold after the brief p6 stent, i think all the doom and gloom comments on social media about this winter are rattling me now lol

I think thats whats going on. The MJO chart Ntx posted the other day looks very similar to the models and ensembles of today. Good news is that it escapes into 7 quickly.