Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

[TideJoe]

It's been sleeting very heavy for about an hour now. Starting to get a glaze on the vehicles. Hopefully it will change to snow soon.

It should. We went through about 2 hours of heavy sleet before it changed over.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The all time record 24-hour snowfall for the state of Florida is 4 inches (set in Milton back in 1954). It will be very interesting to see if any places can approach or break that record tomorrow.

[gulfcoastdave]

I am in milton and have to head to work just at the florida/alabama line in the early AM..........I am hoping to see plenty of snow

[SunnyThoughts]

Im located between Pensacola and MIlton, I wasn't around in '54, but I do remember a significant snowfall in the mid to late 70s. 76 or 77 I believe. 2 or 3"

[gulfcoastdave]

it was 1976.........1993 was good amount of snow in northern escambia county

[DEEDEE911]

we have a little over a half inch in meadville mississippi already

[TideJoe]

we have a little over a half inch in meadville mississippi already

Starting to accumulate on the ground in Hattiesburg. Just a dusting at this point.

[SunnyThoughts]

WKRG5 just reported snow being reported in Washington County

[timNms]

Snow coming down at good clip. No more water dripping off roof. Rooftop, cars covered. Ground beginning to get covered.

[offroadjeeps]

I'm in west Mobile, near the airport, I'll report on snowfall now through Friday afternoon in west Mobile. Can't wait. Ivanhater I sure hope your NAM model of snow totals pans out, I remember the snows of 73, 93 and 96 in Mobile. 1973 was a really good one for Mobile. In my neighborhood in 73 we had around 4 to 5 inches.

[offroadjeeps]

My friends in Ellisville, Ms. says its snowing there

[MGC]

Cold rain here on the MGC.......MGC

[timNms]

WOW adding up quickly here. Was just starting to cover ground earlier. Now ground is white. Probably almost half inch now.

[TigerCraig]

Looks like it is having a hard time converting to snow in Baton Rouge--I am seriously starting to doubt the 2-4 inches the METS are saying.

[weunice]

Looks like it is having a hard time converting to snow in Baton Rouge--I am seriously starting to doubt the 2-4 inches the METS are saying.

Me too ... I am doubting we will see anything stick at this point but the GFS gives us an inch and NAM gives us two mostly later tonight and into the morning. We will see.

[timNms]

Interesting!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010

SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY


UPDATE
SNOW REPORTS HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS SINCE THE LAST
UPDATE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF IT HAS THUS FAR BEEN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN
SNOW REACHING THE GROUND MORE EFFICIENTLY OVER A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA AND LESS EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS WILL CAUSE INTENSITIES TO PICK UP
AT THE GROUND...EVEN WITH RADAR RETURNS NOT LOOKING MARKEDLY
DIFFERENT. SNOW CONTINUES BACK TO DALLAS RIGHT NOW...BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS HEADED THIS WAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS STRENGTHENING.

EVERYTHING IS LOOKING ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS THOUGHTS CONCERNING
ULTIMATE SNOWFALL TOTAL EXPECTATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WINTER STORM.
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN LARGELY LESS THAN AN INCH...AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS...BUT SNOW WILL BE INCREASING
ACROSS MOST (IF NOT ALL) AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BEGIN OCCURRING IN MORE AREAS AND AT A FASTER RATE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PROLONGED HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW
PER HOUR ARE MUCH GREATER SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH DAYBREAK TO MID
MORNING TOMORROW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVIEST TOTALS (5 TO
9INCHES) IN SOUTHERN ZONES DESPITE A FEW AREAS DOWN THERE STILL
GETTING A LITTLE SLEET OR EVEN RAIN MIXING IN RIGHT NOW.

AS FAR AS ANY ADJUSTMENTS...I DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO CATCH
CURRENT TRENDS...BUT I HAVE NOT CHANGED ANY SNOWFALL TOTAL
EXPECTATIONS. ONLY THING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE DAY THAN WE
ARE FORECASTING...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MS. THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING PERHAPS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH A TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. BOTH
OF THESE THINGS WOULD ARGUE FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW
NOT ENDING AS QUICKLY. /BB/

[SunnyThoughts]

wow Tim, thanks for posting. Very interesting indeed.

[TigerCraig]

I tihnk the more northerly track also kills Baton Rouge chances...Am I right?

[gulfcoastdave]

off to bed for a few hours before work , hope I awake to snow here at home or very close.........enjoy all