Texas Winter 2014-2015

[ronyan]

Here's a good look at the Yukon Territory temps, approaching -30F in the NW:


With a huge high pressure cell coming down soon from this region, I agree with wxman amd Ntxw. Pretty hard to believe the model output for temps at the surface right now in TX.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

No sleet observed here in N Austin near P'ville. Just cold drizzle and 36F. Got a weather station, waiting for it to stop raining before I go put it up.... hopefully tomorrow.

Got mine up a couple days ago and I am loving it.

I've been thinking about getting a weather station for a while. Any advice on which one to get?

Ambient products are good. To be honest, make sure you get quality. I have a quality station and have run into some small issues that required some tinkering. I spent a bit over $100 for mine, my next one i will prolly spend closer to $200 to avoid any problems.

For instance, my anenometer is out. Not a huge deal since i live in a neighborhood, but i have nobody that live behind me. Would be nice for it to work but it doesnt.

[ronyan]

The GFS is forecasting some very cold temperatures for the next Arctic front coming down Jan 5th-6th, look at the surface for the Midwest. -19F in Chicago is extreme. Of course we can't trust that at this range, but it's interesting still. Has Amarillo reaching 5F and Dallas 18F a couple of times.

[Ralph's Weather]

The GFS is forecasting some very cold temperatures for the next Arctic front coming down Jan 5th-6th, look at the surface for the Midwest. -19F in Chicago is extreme. Of course we can't trust that at this range, but it's interesting still. Has Amarillo reaching 5F and Dallas 18F a couple of times.

It would not surprise me. The GFS seems to handle Arctic air at the surface better in the long range than in the medium range. Thankfully for this week's storm we are entering the short range. 40s are nothing but a dream for the middle of this week.

[stormlover2013]

Cmc is colder

[amawea]

No sleet observed here in N Austin near P'ville. Just cold drizzle and 36F. Got a weather station, waiting for it to stop raining before I go put it up.... hopefully tomorrow.

Got mine up a couple days ago and I am loving it.

I've been thinking about getting a weather station for a while. Any advice on which one to get?

I got a Davis Vantage VUE for Christmas in 2012. I haven't had any problems with it. You'll need to get the data module if you want to transmit your data onto the web at sites such as Weather Underground or to your p.c.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Posted this in the deep south thread. Since it affects you guys first thought I should share the wealth. The gfs saves winter

[aggiecutter]

Another big surprise this morning in Texarkana:

[Portastorm]

Cmc is colder

Yes it is. The 12z CMC looks a tad colder than its 0z run. It was the first global model last night (0z run) to drop temps in Texas and reflect what many of us believe will be a more realistic scenario for NYE/NYD.

[Ralph's Weather]

Light rain and upper 30s here. Some bright returns around Athens so probably some sleet or melting sleet above the surface.

[Snowman67]

Yesterday afternoon's forecast had us hitting a high of 50F today. Currently 39F. Shows how off a temp forecast can be less than 24 hours out.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z operational guidance is trending to a more progressive solution with the Western cold upper trough/closed cold core low. This would fit the pattern we've been experiencing all Fall and early Winter, so expect further refinement as the guidance attempts to resolve the upper air pattern expected next week.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Cmc is colder

Yes it is. The 12z CMC looks a tad colder than its 0z run. It was the first global model last night (0z run) to drop temps in Texas and reflect what many of us believe will be a more realistic scenario for NYE/NYD.

850 still doesnt cross into Dallas though. Interesting to see if any mets stick their neck out

[stormlover2013]

Srain, what is Ur gut feeling about this week?

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12Z operational guidance is trending to a more progressive solution with the Western cold upper trough/closed cold core low. This would fit the pattern we've been experiencing all Fall and early Winter, so expect further refinement as the guidance attempts to resolve the upper air pattern expected next week.

Going back to what was originally shown a while back, now just waiting on them to show the surface cold and figure out how deep it will be.

[stormlover2013]

Cmc is colder

Yes it is. The 12z CMC looks a tad colder than its 0z run. It was the first global model last night (0z run) to drop temps in Texas and reflect what many of us believe will be a more realistic scenario for NYE/NYD.

850 still doesnt cross into Dallas though. Interesting to see if any mets stick their neck out

Artic air is shallow models do a horrible job ignore that

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yep, they do. So many people will be caught off guard by this though. 1050 high in Nebraska and 850 doesnt cross into C Tx lol

[TheProfessor]

I've been invited to visit the NWS FWD office on the 30th, I think it would be interesting to see what is happening there on a possible eve of a winter storm, now that I think about it I wonder if they will eve let me in if they have advisories, watches or warning in place.

[SouthernMet]

that's more because of a warm nose layer aloft, than models underestimating shallow air.(which they are) system is still evolving so maybe the 850mb will make it further south, which is possible, but models have been consistent in showing the warm nose.

[ronyan]

Remember 850mb is not the surface (~5000ft), and fronts tend to be colder at the surface level.