Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

Quite the front on ICON. OKC goes from 40s to 0s in a mere hours. WF similar.

[Brent]

It's warmer than the 12z here. But still extremely cold

-6 Sunday morning on the 12z -0 on the 0z

[Ntxw]

Now the question is, behind the late weekend system the models have return from flow from southwest? This storm has a front associated with it, is that realistic we warm back up that quickly after? In the past it gets cold then stays cold or gets colder.

[Ntxw]

Next Sunday doesn't warm up on the ICON for most of the state. DFW dropped into the teens the rest of that day. 20s in Central Texas. WF hovers around 10F all day.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Next Sunday doesn't warm up on the ICON for most of the state. DFW dropped into the teens the rest of that day. 20s in Central Texas. WF hovers around 10F all day.

I hit up Cosgrove tonight. He agrees Ntxw. ICON has best handle and blends with Canadian.

[Ntxw]

Next Sunday doesn't warm up on the ICON for most of the state. DFW dropped into the teens the rest of that day. 20s in Central Texas. WF hovers around 10F all day.

I hit up Cosgrove tonight. He agrees Ntxw. ICON has best handle and blends with Canadian.

The air mass is colder than last December. I don't see why that wouldn't yield a colder outcome especially when the flow is better too deliver it.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Now the question is, behind the late weekend system the models have return from flow from southwest? This storm has a front associated with it, is that realistic we warm back up that quickly after? In the past it gets cold then stays cold or gets colder.

That would defy the PV orientation. You answer that one. We know how this works.

[SnowintheFalls]

Next Sunday doesn't warm up on the ICON for most of the state. DFW dropped into the teens the rest of that day. 20s in Central Texas. WF hovers around 10F all day.

Is moisture still on the table or is it not really showing in the models during this potential cold snap?

[Brent]

10 inches of snow here on the GFS and we drop down near all time lows you can clearly tell where it really snows on the temperature map

[txtwister78]

[Stratton23]

Now thats a potent winter storm! Even brings some snow down into houston, loving that euro run

[Gotwood]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704672000/1705341600-K21KaPEj8Cc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704672000/1705363200-79bK7ZCIFQs.png

I would assume some frigid temps would follow a storm like that.

[JayDT]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704672000/1705341600-K21KaPEj8Cc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704672000/1705363200-79bK7ZCIFQs.png

Ohh hello i’m up

[Tammie]

Since it’s quiet on a Monday morning, I thought I’d share this little story just for laughs.

Borrowed from Laura Mauelshagen
Public service announcement (and for the record-love Pete Delkus, but she’s not wrong HA!…)

If you are new to Texas, we are about to experience “Texas Winter”. This is 6 or 7 days of cold, maybe some ice and snow. Pete Delkus will threaten snow. It may snow, it may not and if Pete says 2 inches it could be 10 or it could be 1/2”. It doesn’t matter how much snow it is, we’ll all freak out because we don’t see snow often.
The threat of snow (or ice) from good ol’ Pete is your prompt to head to the grocery store and buy milk, eggs and bread. It doesn’t matter if you need these items. It’s just what we do. Everyone in town will be there.

You’ll also need to make a mad dash for faucet covers and finding them and getting out of the store will be like an episode of the hunger games. You’re in the redneck district.

Don’t look for a sled. You won’t find one. In the rare chance we get enough ice or snow to sled grab some cardboard or a trash can lid and go find the nearest hill. Yes, we know it’s not a hill. You live in the flatland, just go with it. You’ll be alarmed by the fact that you’re “sledding” towards a bar ditch, fence or maybe into a farm to market road.

Just go with it.
You’ll be fine.

We don’t have equipment to handle the winter and weather. The roads will be a mess and even though the state has been telling you for a week they’re ready, they’re not and it won’t work. Just stay home if you can and if you can’t just come to terms with the fact that nobody here knows how to drive in snow and ice.

Whatever you do, DO NOT talk about snow tires.

If you happen to slide off the road or get stuck, turn your flashers on, take a deep breath and wait. Two guys in a four wheel drive truck will be along in no time to offer assistance. Don’t try to help them, they live for this stuff, and will do what they can to get you back on the road. If either one of them screams “hey y’all watch this” just get back and get your phone out and start recording, you’ll probably have a viral video.

Also of note, when they offer you beer and deer sticks, don’t be rude, take them and smile.

No matter what you do, don’t talk about how they did it back home in any of these scenarios.

Nobody cares.

You live in Texas now.

Texans know they live in the greatest state in the country and it’s our way or the highway.

When we act like we’re going to die and start to complain about the 7 days of winter just shut up, we’re serious and we don’t care how much you love it.

We don’t.

You’ll be back in shorts and flip flops in a week to ten days and it’ll be nice until right around Easter.

Texas “second winter” will be 2 or 3 days and will hit right around Easter, usually the week before or the week after. This will hit right around the time you plant flowers and a garden.

We know you’re not from around here when we see you’ve planted flowers before Easter and before the “second winter” has hit.

This is why all the people at the nursery don’t sound like us when you’re shopping for plants.

We know better.

During second winter it’ll go from 70 to 25 and you’ll experience all four seasons in one day.

This too shall pass, get used to it and when second winter is over you can enjoy the 3-4 weeks of “spring” before summer gets here and it’ll be melt your face off hot until sometime around Halloween.

All Facts.

[Tammie]

FWNWS

.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Winds will subside Tuesday night as the axis of the post-frontal surface ridge passes through the area. Light winds, clearing skies and dry air will be conducive for radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s by daybreak Wednesday. Light return flow on Wednesday will help warm the environment up ahead of a second weaker front, with afternoon temperatures climbing into the 60s. The front will stall near the Red River, which should allow for another day of above-normal daytime temperatures. Thursday temperatures will start in the mid and upper 30s and climb into the 60s by afternoon.

Meanwhile, cyclonic flow will persist across the CONUS for the next several days as a longwave trough remains entrenched across North America. This typically means that it is only a matter of time before we get an arctic air intrusion, and this week is looking to be no exception. The first arctic front will arrive on the heels of a sharp shortwave trough, which will swing through the Southern Plains around the base of the longwave trough Thursday night into Friday. A quick round of showers and isolated
storms will develop along and east of the I-35 corridor Thursday night within the left exit region of an impressive 190 MPH jet. Precipitation will shift east of the forecast area overnight into Friday as a strong cold front ushers in the first batch of modified arctic air. Bitter cold and dry conditions will be the result for the weekend, with overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s and highs mainly in the 40s.

A second and stronger shortwave trough will deepen while propagating from the West Coast to the southern Rockies late this weekend, then further intensify as it emerges in the Plains early next week. This pattern will dislodge another swath of arctic air, sending it south down the lee side of the Rockies and into North and Central Texas during the first half of next week. It is possible that we also get some wintry precipitation, but model discrepancies regarding the timing of the sub-freezing temperatures in relation to when the moisture is readily available create too much uncertainty to add anything in the extended forecast at this time. Unseasonably cold weather appears ready to greet us this holiday weekend in any case.

[WacoWx]

65% chance of snow with a high of 31 in Dallas on 1/15

[Wthrfan]

Since it’s quiet on a Monday morning, I thought I’d share this little story just for laughs.

Borrowed from Laura Mauelshagen
Public service announcement (and for the record-love Pete Delkus, but she’s not wrong HA!…)

If you are new to Texas, we are about to experience “Texas Winter”. This is 6 or 7 days of cold, maybe some ice and snow. Pete Delkus will threaten snow. It may snow, it may not and if Pete says 2 inches it could be 10 or it could be 1/2”. It doesn’t matter how much snow it is, we’ll all freak out because we don’t see snow often.
The threat of snow (or ice) from good ol’ Pete is your prompt to head to the grocery store and buy milk, eggs and bread. It doesn’t matter if you need these items. It’s just what we do. Everyone in town will be there.

You’ll also need to make a mad dash for faucet covers and finding them and getting out of the store will be like an episode of the hunger games. You’re in the redneck district.

Don’t look for a sled. You won’t find one. In the rare chance we get enough ice or snow to sled grab some cardboard or a trash can lid and go find the nearest hill. Yes, we know it’s not a hill. You live in the flatland, just go with it. You’ll be alarmed by the fact that you’re “sledding” towards a bar ditch, fence or maybe into a farm to market road.

Just go with it.
You’ll be fine.

We don’t have equipment to handle the winter and weather. The roads will be a mess and even though the state has been telling you for a week they’re ready, they’re not and it won’t work. Just stay home if you can and if you can’t just come to terms with the fact that nobody here knows how to drive in snow and ice.

Whatever you do, DO NOT talk about snow tires.

If you happen to slide off the road or get stuck, turn your flashers on, take a deep breath and wait. Two guys in a four wheel drive truck will be along in no time to offer assistance. Don’t try to help them, they live for this stuff, and will do what they can to get you back on the road. If either one of them screams “hey y’all watch this” just get back and get your phone out and start recording, you’ll probably have a viral video.

Also of note, when they offer you beer and deer sticks, don’t be rude, take them and smile.

No matter what you do, don’t talk about how they did it back home in any of these scenarios.

Nobody cares.

You live in Texas now.

Texans know they live in the greatest state in the country and it’s our way or the highway.

When we act like we’re going to die and start to complain about the 7 days of winter just shut up, we’re serious and we don’t care how much you love it.

We don’t.

You’ll be back in shorts and flip flops in a week to ten days and it’ll be nice until right around Easter.

Texas “second winter” will be 2 or 3 days and will hit right around Easter, usually the week before or the week after. This will hit right around the time you plant flowers and a garden.

We know you’re not from around here when we see you’ve planted flowers before Easter and before the “second winter” has hit.

This is why all the people at the nursery don’t sound like us when you’re shopping for plants.

We know better.

During second winter it’ll go from 70 to 25 and you’ll experience all four seasons in one day.

This too shall pass, get used to it and when second winter is over you can enjoy the 3-4 weeks of “spring” before summer gets here and it’ll be melt your face off hot until sometime around Halloween.

All Facts.

As a native Texan, this is golden!

[cajungal]

And of course after I will already be well home from Nashville trip, they give a snow storm for the 16th. We will only be there tomorrow til this Friday. Only very slight chance of seeing a few flakes mixing with rain tomorrow night. We were supposed to leave tonight but delaying til 5 a.m. tomorrow because of the tornado threat.

[MbjerrySETX]

Long time lurker here but have a question I need help with please. I have a camping trip planned for my 6 year old daughter Saturday to Sunday at Brazos Bend State Park south of Houston. Will be a small group of 3-6 year olds. I was planning to draw the line at mid 30s and windy but right now the forecast is well above that (Sunny, mid 40s to mid 50s with light onshore flow Sat to Sun). I am having a hard time believing this with a lot of what I have seen posted and previous experience. How do we go from a strong cold front Friday with 40 mph winds to mild temperatures and light onshore flow within 24hrs? Does this look accurate?

I need to make plans for the party by tomorrow. Really don't want to plan the trip and then end up with windy freezing temperatures Saturday night. Thanks for your help.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Now the question is, behind the late weekend system the models have return from flow from southwest? This storm has a front associated with it, is that realistic we warm back up that quickly after? In the past it gets cold then stays cold or gets colder.

With blocking in place, i think it sticks around.