Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Golfisnoteasy75]

I wonder if the MJO temporarily going into P6 is whats causing the “ ugly “ runs today in ensembles, because most of the MJO forecasts im seeing from the GEFS, EPS, EPS extended, CFS all are generally really favorable rotations for cold after the brief p6 stent, i think all the doom and gloom comments on social media about this winter are rattling me now lol

I think thats whats going on. The MJO chart Ntx posted the other day looks very similar to the models and ensembles of today. Good news is that it escapes into 7 quickly.

I know there is more than just the mjo, but if it goes into phase 7, there is probably additional things causing the lack of cold on the models.

[snownado]

Looks like I picked up .02" with the line that passed through Ponder just now.

You did better than DFW, which only got 0.01"

[wxman22]

Really hoping the MJO provides a spark now that its finally going to be on the move, because todays ensemble runs are nothing short of dogsh**

Please stop living and dying by each model run. It will drive you crazy. LOL

[Stratton23]

wxman22 oh i know , i just cant help it lol

[txtwister78]

While there are some indicatiors that have shown up that make the prospects look better for cold down the road for the southern plains we're still talking 10-15 days out and this forum has seen that movie before. That's been the theme of this "winter" across our region in terms of the waiting game while being locked in to a status quo pattern some had hoped would give sooner. The good news for those that have been searching for cold is there are actually some "real" signals this time in the longer range that actually back up a true pattern shift potential albeit in that 10-15 day timeframe.

I would say however trust the AI's at your own risk ans any model for that matter in the long range. Lots of volatility there with those still as you can see. Hopefully we get some better clarity next week

[Golfisnoteasy75]

While there are some indicatiors that have shown up that make the prospects look better for cold down the road for the southern plains we're still talking 10-15 days out and this forum has seen that movie before. That's been the theme of this "winter" across our region in terms of the waiting game while being locked in to a status quo pattern some had hoped would give sooner. The good news for those that have been searching for cold is there are actually some "real" signals this time in the longer range that actually back up a true pattern shift potential albeit in that 10-15 day timeframe.

I would say however trust the AI's at your own risk ans any model for that matter in the long range. Lots of volatility there with those still as you can see. Hopefully we get some better clarity next week

I don't believe the AI models. They overexaggerate cold or warm imo. Do you think the mjo will have any effect on the pattern, especially other phases if it can get to those phases?

[Ntxw]

I wonder if the MJO temporarily going into P6 is whats causing the “ ugly “ runs today in ensembles, because most of the MJO forecasts im seeing from the GEFS, EPS, EPS extended, CFS all are generally really favorable rotations for cold after the brief p6 stent, i think all the doom and gloom comments on social media about this winter are rattling me now lol

I think thats whats going on. The MJO chart Ntx posted the other day looks very similar to the models and ensembles of today. Good news is that it escapes into 7 quickly.

I know there is more than just the mjo, but if it goes into phase 7, there is probably additional things causing the lack of cold on the models.

I don't think the MJO alone is the deciding factor. I view it as an indicator the tropics will help us shift the Pacific pattern. We are actually sitting the same where we were in late November. Reloading the cold and initially setting up for delivery. Will that delivery come to past? It didn't in December the way we wanted, we got glancing blows and ridge took over, the thinking is now once -WPO resets for more cold we can do better. But there's always that off chance it gets stuck again, but with a fading Nina hopefully not the same outcome.

We have been on this egregious cycle since October a few days-to a week of cold followed by 3 weeks of near record warmth.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

I think thats whats going on. The MJO chart Ntx posted the other day looks very similar to the models and ensembles of today. Good news is that it escapes into 7 quickly.

I know there is more than just the mjo, but if it goes into phase 7, there is probably additional things causing the lack of cold on the models.

I don't think the MJO alone is the deciding factor. I view it as an indicator the tropics will help us shift the Pacific pattern. We are actually sitting the same where we were in late November. Reloading the cold and initially setting up for delivery. Will that delivery come to past? It didn't in December the way we wanted, we got glancing blows and ridge took over, the thinking is now once -WPO resets for more cold we can do better. But there's always that off chance it gets stuck again, but with a fading Nina hopefully not the same outcome.

We have been on this egregious cycle since October a few days-to a week of cold followed by 3 weeks of near record warmth.

I would like to break the cycle lol. Im ready for a solid cold pattern at least a few weeks. Be interesting if the mjo goes into phase 7 if it will alter the pattern.

[Stratton23]

GFS 18z is getting interesting again, cuts off a low over west texas, with the EPO spiking in alaska, some cold air in place over texas through hour 219, looks like an over running setup on this run

[Harp.1]

GFS 18z is getting interesting again, cuts off a low over west texas, with the EPO spiking in alaska, some cold air in place over texas through hour 219, looks like an over running setup on this run

The real cold just won’t come south yet. Ugh!!!

[snownado]

DFW made it to 80*F again today, though the record high was quite safe at 88*F.

[txtwister78]

While there are some indicatiors that have shown up that make the prospects look better for cold down the road for the southern plains we're still talking 10-15 days out and this forum has seen that movie before. That's been the theme of this "winter" across our region in terms of the waiting game while being locked in to a status quo pattern some had hoped would give sooner. The good news for those that have been searching for cold is there are actually some "real" signals this time in the longer range that actually back up a true pattern shift potential albeit in that 10-15 day timeframe.

I would say however trust the AI's at your own risk ans any model for that matter in the long range. Lots of volatility there with those still as you can see. Hopefully we get some better clarity next week

I don't believe the AI models. They overexaggerate cold or warm imo. Do you think the mjo will have any effect on the pattern, especially other phases if it can get to those phases?

Not much more to add than what Ntxw mentioned. MJO isn't the end all be all but I will say it helps getting that out of the null phase and "hopefully" getting some progression into the colder phases for late Jan possibly into Feb but again that's just one component when you live in the south obviously.

[Brent]

The GFS and 18z Euro both have some wintry precip next weekend in Texas

Long way to go

[Stratton23]

18z GEFS has a couple of interesting members around the 18th or so lol

[bubba hotep]

12z EPS 5-day

Well, that's a look...

[Iceresistance]

MJO is looking good again

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bh6Xz.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bh6Xz.png

Are we currently in the blue part? I never can figure it out. Also, it shows it in the black part already having gone through 7 and 8 etc. It didn't, so I'm a little confused.

Blue is long range forecasting

[HockeyTx82]

12z EPS 5-day

Well, that's a look...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G-Lh9iXWoAA2yys?format=png&name=medium

Right, but where does it all go?

[Brent]

Not that I believe the CPC but it does have below normal temps just north of Texas in the 8-14 day outlook. It's not all bottled up in Canada anymore. Also above normal precip everywhere

I mean it's better than more record highs isn't it

[rwfromkansas]

12z EPS 5-day

Well, that's a look...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G-Lh9iXWoAA2yys?format=png&name=medium

That's definitely an east coast aim again. Hope it changes.

[Ntxw]

Stratton's ~17th's called storm is on the 0z GFS in a fairly significant way.