Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Texas Snowman]

wxman57 needs some company in his "warmmongerer" camp and he appears to now have it.

Yes he does...or it's really wxman57 registered under another name!

[hriverajr]

Another warm mongerer? What is the world coming to????

[Texas Snowman]

As for pattern change, AccuWeather's Henry Margusity appears to be getting on board.

Tweets this morning:

"@Henry_Margusity - NAO going negative. Here we go folks...!"

"@Henry_Margusity - Blog has been posted on the pattern change possible."

BTW, the link to his blog about that pattern change possibility is below:


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... ck-1/59803

[ThunderSleetDreams]

YES! This pattern change is seemingly being embraced by most everyone now.

[wxman57]

Everyone? OK, I admit that there may be a small pattern change in the works, though I'm not embracing it. That cold upper low that the models have moving across SE TX next Monday night is interesting. All models have surface temps above freezing (40s) but temps aloft cold enough for snow. I'd like to see a few flakes, but I'm not on the snow bandwagon just yet. I've not seen enough consistency in the models 5-6 days out of late to have much confidence in them.

[Portastorm]

Everyone? OK, I admit that there may be a small pattern change in the works, though I'm not embracing it. That cold upper low that the models have moving across SE TX next Monday night is interesting. All models have surface temps above freezing (40s) but temps aloft cold enough for snow. I'd like to see a few flakes, but I'm not on the snow bandwagon just yet. I've not seen enough consistency in the models 5-6 days out of late to have much confidence in them.

But you are forecasting the upper low to dump an inch or two of snow on the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County, aren't you?!

I noticed the 12z GFS op run is much more vigorous with the upper-level vort max and it now is much closer to the European in its depiction for next Monday.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah the GFS is on board with something coming through now. Time to see how the Euro fells aout it soon. Could be interesting!

[wxman57]

Moisture looks to be quite limited in the Austin area next Monday when the upper low passes, Portastorm.

[gpsnowman]

Moisture looks to be quite limited in the Austin area next Monday when the upper low passes, Portastorm.

What about the DFW area?

[Portastorm]

Moisture looks to be quite limited in the Austin area next Monday when the upper low passes, Portastorm.

Somehow I knew you'd say that.

I'm honestly not expecting much (if anything) here in Austin from that ULL other than maybe some cold, light rain. I'm more intrigued by the potential pattern change come mid month and beyond. Per some of your earlier comments though, I would feel more confident about some serious cold air coming our way if we had a better snowpack to our north and northwest. Right now, there is no snowpack to our north and northwest.

[wxman57]

Moisture looks to be quite limited in the Austin area next Monday when the upper low passes, Portastorm.

What about the DFW area?

Limited there, too. Greatest moisture will be near the upper TX coast, as is typical with frontal waves.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Moisture looks to be quite limited in the Austin area next Monday when the upper low passes, Portastorm.

What about the DFW area?

Limited there, too. Greatest moisture will be near the upper TX coast, as is typical with frontal waves.

There you have it... SNOW IN HARRIS AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES!

[gpsnowman]

Thanks. Steve Macauley (WFAA Dallas) mentioned the moisture more towards the Texas coast last night after having it right on top of DFW on Sunday. Like Portastorm, I am anticipating the colder pattern change. Moisture is good but moisture and cold is better.

[wxman57]

GFS does indicate a small area of accumulating snow next Monday night:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

It's forecasting temps to be above freezing across much of SE TX next Monday night, so it's not forecasting anything to accumulate. Doesn't mean there can't be snowflakes falling and melting, though. Will be interesting to see if the models hold onto this pattern through early next week.

[Snowman67]

GFS does indicate a small area of accumulating snow next Monday night:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

It's forecasting temps to be above freezing across much of SE TX next Monday night, so it's not forecasting anything to accumulate. Doesn't mean there can't be snowflakes falling and melting, though. Will be interesting to see if the models hold onto this pattern through early next week.

How accurate on average are temp forecasts out this far?

[wxman57]

GFS does indicate a small area of accumulating snow next Monday night:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

It's forecasting temps to be above freezing across much of SE TX next Monday night, so it's not forecasting anything to accumulate. Doesn't mean there can't be snowflakes falling and melting, though. Will be interesting to see if the models hold onto this pattern through early next week.

How accurate on average are temp forecasts out this far?

Not accurate enough. But the air in advance of the upper low appears to be warmer than it was in 2008.

[austinrunner]

... you appear to be banking on GFS grid numbers for Austin's temps at the mid-month range.... wxman57 needs some company in his "warmmongerer" camp and he appears to now have it.

Not "banking" on anything here. Just providing some balance to the rampant -removed- on this forum.

[weatherdude1108]

... you appear to be banking on GFS grid numbers for Austin's temps at the mid-month range.... wxman57 needs some company in his "warmmongerer" camp and he appears to now have it.

Not "banking" on anything here. Just providing some balance to the -removed- that this forum seems to be all about.

Nothing wrong with "-removed-." Some wishes really do come true.

[gpsnowman]

... you appear to be banking on GFS grid numbers for Austin's temps at the mid-month range.... wxman57 needs some company in his "warmmongerer" camp and he appears to now have it.

Not "banking" on anything here. Just providing some balance to the -removed- that this forum seems to be all about.

I would disagree with that statement. Some -removed- is present on this forum but an incredible amount of weather knowledge is available from numerous posters. This is Texas. Not much in the way of winter happens in a given year. So if a little -removed- is obvious between real winter events, so be it. Most of us are winter lovers in a generally warm part of the country. That being said sometimes just talking about snow and ice makes us feel better. I love this forum. Post away!

[aggiecutter]

By the 3rd week of January, Canada is getting very cold with -10 readings crossing the border and heading south. It'll probably be after the 20th before any significant cold air reaches northern Texas.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.