Texas Winter 2020-2021

[jaguars_22]

All the short term models look to be spreading further and further south. Why isn’t the icon budging? Is the low really going to track further south than predicted?

[WinterMax]

I would like to see some daylight flakes, so might move over to Jacksonville Texas in the morning, but the projected swath seems narrow. Hate to drive right out of it.

[Brent]

What has happened to north shifts

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The storm is still moving more south than east and if it continues the next couple of hours, that will make a world of difference.

Inland Harris definitely in play now.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm hoping the ULL turns north over Tyler if it waits to make the turn then I'll be on the bad side pretty quick.

[HockeyTx82]

I'm about to delete my account, put a block on this website and have my wife set the password for the block and never let me back.

I can't take this pulling on the heart strings much more.

[EnnisTx]

I'm not buying it yet. Looks to me like it's moving on more of an Easterly direction now.

[Texas Snow]

I'm not buying it yet. Looks to me like it's moving on more of an Easterly direction now.

Keep up the fight!

[Brent]

I'm hoping the ULL turns north over Tyler if it waits to make the turn then I'll be on the bad side pretty quick.

I'm looking out that way for a drive maybe as far as Longview

Really hoping that band south of 20 can make it there if it does bust here in the metro

[Cerlin]

Well. I said this was boom or bust. I didn’t think a bust was actually as possible as it’s appearing. I’m not throwing in the towel but...being in northern DFW, at this point, a flurry might be all I get. Again LOL.

[txtwister78]

OZ GFS nudges a bit more south from 18z run

[Texas Snow]

ooff...was hyped for the WWA then realized Collin County wasn't listed. May have to head over to Highland Village to partake in the higher accumulation.

Yep, I am in Collin just on border of Dallas County. I’m pretty sure we are packing up in the morning and heading to the lake which is in Henderson county just SE of Dallas County (not quite all the way to Athens). Still showing as watch but even their graphic says likely to be upgraded this afternoon.

I’m just playing the odds of best chance for multi inch snow. Hope I’m right.

So I just looked at the winter storm watch wording for Henderson county. Given the amounts in the wording, I am trying to figure out why they didn’t go with a warning. Only thing I can think of is confidence level is low, but then why put these numbers out there? It’s a small area they are talking about so not like a broad 20 county area where amounts could vary greatly.

Any thoughts? I’m kind of expecting it’s changed to advisory or warning by 10 but who knows...

Henderson-Anderson-
Including the cities of Athens, Gun Barrel City, and Palestine
130 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
inches possible, with isolated amounts of greater than 5 inches.

* WHERE...Anderson and Henderson Counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

They just updated the WSW at 9:43 with same amounts and wording. So odd



EDIT: Doesn’t look like any type of AFD update either. In this case it seems they kept all watches warnings and advisories as is and just updated the time stamp. For big storms they used to provide their latest thinking about 9:45 PM before the evening news. Seems like that went out about the time of Dennis Cavanaugh. I’ll just say it’s very disappointing and a disservice to the public.[/quote]

[utweather]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2021011000/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_24.png

Trend continues to be a little more south where higher QPF expected for Central and even parts of South Central Texas. Totals are bit overdone. HRRR has also followed this "trend"

Thats a beautiful model. I still have to see it to believe it, and I'm pretty sure we aren't ready for something like that.

[Cerlin]

If it doesn’t snow I’m just gonna move to Oklahoma.

[TheProfessor]

The 0z Analysis of the ULL is definitely a hair south than what the 18z 3 Km NAM forecasted. There's still a lot of energy on the backside of the trough, which could continue to push it a bit further south than expected.

[rwfromkansas]

Delkus’ latest map reduces some of the snow for DFW. Here we go. I want to kick Lucy.

[bubba hotep]

Not seeing any positive trends for DFW. I guess we huge the 3k NAM...

[Lagreeneyes03]

The disappointment those of us in dallas have been expecting. I don't buy the snow forecast anymore untll I see it falling from the sky.

I am completely not understanding the "U" shape that takes form over Dallas. What is causing that, I know it's not "heat island", is there some kind of atmpospheric something in the NE part of the state?

That is the low track it swings south around Abilene to Waco then back up towards Shreveport basically which if you notice is where the heaviest snow generally is modeled

Right, but what's causing that swing down and back up, basically screwing us?

[txtwister78]

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=219&y=141&site=ewx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=219&map_y=141#.X_p9R6AKC5c.twitter

Seems NWS (EWX) just added snow for north SA/Bexar County.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Delkus’ latest map reduces some of the snow for DFW. Here we go. I want to kick Lucy.

This is absolutely terrible.